Michigan State football: 3 storylines and a prediction vs. UCLA

Michigan State football returns home for the first time in nearly a month to host their first conference game of the season. UCLA, the story of college football last weekend, comes into Spartan Stadium with new life.

The Spartans are in desperate need of a win after dropping two games in a row.

Here are three storylines, along with a wager and a prediction.

1. Rushing the quarterback

Much has been made about Michigan State’s inability to get to the opposing quarterback. To their credit, they did manage to sack Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola five times last week. But, believe it or not, MSU’s pass rush will be the better of the two units on the field Saturday.

UCLA has a grand total of five sacks in five games. That’s last in the Big Ten. And it ranks 130th in America. Even in their upset last week against Penn State, the Bruins only got to Drew Allar once.

That’s welcoming news to a Michigan State offensive line that looked extremely shaky in last week’s loss at Nebraska. MSU has now allowed 14 sacks this season, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally.

The correlation between Aidan Chiles’ level of play and the protection he receives is pretty straightforward. If he has time, he’s an effective downfield passer. If he’s under pressure, bad things tend to happen.

Even with MSU’s injuries along the offensive line, he should have time to throw in this game. That’s important, because this is a UCLA defense that can be had. The Bruins rank last in the conference, allowing more than 32 points per game.

Ranking slightly above Michigan State football in sacks allowed is UCLA. So, if what we saw last week from the Spartans’ pass rush is legitimate, it should show up again here.

Neither defense inspires much confidence here. But there are avenues for both to get to the quarterback and disrupt the opposing offense. Whichever team can do it most effectively will most likely win this game.

2. Running the football

To put it simply, UCLA beat Penn State because the Nittany Lions couldn’t stop the run. If you didn’t have that in your pregame handicap last week, I can’t blame you. After averaging 124 yards rushing per game in their first four weeks, the Bruins exploded for 269 yards on 53 (!) carries against Penn State.

The big question now is whether or not that is repeatable. It’s important to note that UCLA was working with a new offensive coordinator last week. Penn State may have been unprepared for UCLA’s new plan of attack. The Nittany Lions were also coming off a devastating overtime loss against Oregon. It was a classic “letdown” spot that the Bruins exploited to the fullest.

What requires little questioning, though, is the UCLA rush defense. The Bruins are giving up over 217 yards per game, which ranks 130th in the country. An opponent hasn’t rushed for fewer than 148 yards against UCLA this season.

Michigan State football has been below average at running the ball this season, while defending it a bit better. In any case, there’s no excuse for the Spartans not to run the ball effectively in this game. Down some offensive lineman, MSU will certainly have some attempts that go nowhere. But Brian Lindgren needs to stick to it. The Bruins have given up 32 rushing plays of 10 yards or more. The dam will break at some point.

If the Spartans can run the ball here, they should put up some points. UCLA is the worst defense in the Big Ten on a points per game basis. Then, it becomes a question of whether or not UCLA can keep up. In order to do so, they’ll have to run it effectively themselves.

3. Pressure and clean up

My, how things can change. UCLA looked like they were on a slow march to go 0-12 after losing at Northwestern. MSU had the lead late in the third quarter las week at Nebraska. That win had the potential to change the trajectory of their season.

But as we head into Saturday, the roles in this game feel completely different. UCLA feels like the team that is playing without pressure. And Michigan State now needs this game if they want to play in a bowl game.

It will be interesting to see how that impacts key decisions in this game. This UCLA staff probably feels like they are playing with house money. They might be more open to managing this game aggressively. Michigan State, meanwhile, has to be second guessing themselves after a sloppy, mistake filled effort against the Huskers.

The good news, for Michigan State football, is that a lot of its mistakes from last Saturday are correctable. Block players going after the punter. Catch kickoffs. And stay in your lanes on special teams returns.

But it’s easier said than done. The Spartans are hearing a lot of outside noise after losing two in a row. If MSU is feeling the pressure, and playing tight, it will show up in this game.  And UCLA might be playing with enough confidence to take full advantage.

Prediction

Michigan State is a 7.5-point home favorite against UCLA. The total is around 54, depending on the sportsbook. I’m curious as to what this line would have been a week ago when it appeared there was no bottom for the Bruins.

Because this feels like a drastic overreaction. Two weeks ago, UCLA was catching the same 7.5 points in a road game against Northwestern. Maybe the data available suggests MSU and Northwestern are equal teams, but I’m not buying it.

This UCLA defense is horrendous. Even Penn State’s slow, conservative attack managed to score 37 against them on the road. And yes, they won that game. But the Bruins did most of their damage in the first half, when Penn State was either asleep, or unprepared for UCLA’s offensive wrinkles. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava threw for eight yards in the second half.

The spot for Michigan State can’t be ignored here, either. UCLA’s reward for their biggest win in years is to fly across the country and play at 9 a.m. PST. For what it’s worth, Big Ten teams traveling two-plus time zones have been horrendous, going 12-21 against the spread since the start of last season.

Many of Michigan State’s wildest dreams are probably gone with that loss to Nebraska. But I’m assuming (hoping) this roster and coaching staff realizes there is still plenty to play for this season.

On an anecdotal note, I’m buying the idea that Michigan State will get Nick Marsh more involved after the sideline flare up against Nebraska. He was injured heading into the USC game and was reportedly sick all week before the Nebraska game. I think he’ll be involved early and often in this game. That’s good news for MSU’s offense.

I’m taking Michigan State -7.5. They should be able to score with regularity, and I’m hopeful the defense found some things after a solid showing against Nebraska. UCLA should still be hungover, and they don’t have nearly the talent necessary to win in that state.

Prediction: UCLA 20, Michigan State 34