Michigan State football betting preview for the 2025 season

Ah, summer. Grilling, steamy temperatures, cold beverages, vacations, and a brand-new football season just over the horizon. Michigan State football is just a few days away. And there’s no better way to prepare for the season than perusing the gambling markets.

After weeks (minutes) of research, here are my favorite preseason wagers to make on Michigan State football.

Michigan State over 3.5 home wins (+115 at DraftKings)

The important caveat here is that DraftKings is not counting the season finale against Maryland as a home game. That means MSU needs to go 4-2 against Western Michigan, Youngstown State, Boston College, UCLA, Michigan, and Penn State for this to cash. Count me in.

There are two layups here with Western Michigan and Youngstown State. Penn State feels far less likely on Nov. 15. But I’m willing to put some money on the Spartans to win two out of the remaining three at plus money.

This feels like a rebuilding year for Boston College. The Eagles win total has been set at 5.5 in the putrid ACC. And that was a game that the Spartans gave away last fall in Chestnut Hill. You can bet they’ve got that one circled in week two. At night, Spartan Stadium should provide a nice home-field advantage.

Like Michigan State, UCLA also has a win total set at 5.5. But keep in mind, that game has already been announced as a 12 p.m. ET kickoff in East Lansing. The early start should favor Michigan State football. Regardless, this is a UCLA team that has weird vibes after taking in estranged Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

Those are the four most likely wins for the Spartans in East Lansing. But even if MSU heads into the games against Michigan and Penn State needing one more, I’m still intrigued. We have no idea what Michigan will look like this year with true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. The Spartans played them evenly last year in Ann Arbor. Penn State is likely a loss.

At the same time, it’s August. Who knows what these teams will look like by November.

Michigan State to win exactly 7 games (+550 at DraftKings)

This ties into the first wager, but the payout is much more desirable. If I’m willing to bet on MSU picking up four home wins, then I’m willing to get a little greedy for three more.

The season finale against Maryland should be a great opportunity for win No. five. The Terps could be rolling with a true freshman at quarterback. And with a preseason win total set at 4.5, it’s no guarantee that Mike Locksley is even around to coach this game at Ford Field.

But for this to cash, the Spartans are going to have to win at least one game on the road, if not two. Early season travels to USC and Nebraska present decent opportunities. The Spartans will undoubtedly be underdogs in those games, as most are projecting bounce back seasons from the Trojans and Huskers. At the same time, it’s time for those programs to prove that they’ve got something legitimate to fear.

Late season games at Minnesota and Iowa are probably MSU’s best opportunities to win on the road. MSU hammered the Hawkeyes last season. And until proven otherwise, Iowa is not a team that scares you offensively. Minnesota has evolved into a predictable, yet steady presence under P.J. Fleck. Yet, the Gophers won’t have more talent than Michigan State.

The larger point here is that the Michigan State football schedule has 9-10 winnable games. But they’re still a relatively young team that will need to learn how to win. And it’s a roster that is improved, but far from complete. There will be injuries. There will be boneheaded mistakes because that’s college football. Because of that, I think seven wins feels like an appropriate, yet attainable ceiling for the Spartans.

If MSU takes five of its seven games at home (including Maryland), then it’ll need two on the road for this to hit. Keep in mind, the Spartans, as a program, have won three total road games across the past three seasons. Doubling that feels like an a nice goal to set for 2025. Are there two wins against USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa, and Minnesota? I say yes.

Aidan Chiles to lead Big Ten in passing yards (+3000 at DraftKings)

Apologies in advance if this market isn’t available in your state. But it’s my favorite long shot play associated with Michigan State football this season. And let me be clear, it’s priced accordingly. Chiles is probably more likely to finish in the bottom half of the conference than he is at number one. But I’m willing to spend some lunch money to find out.

Let’s start with Chiles. The talent in his right arm is obvious. And from what we know about last season, he’s not afraid to chuck it deep. And unlike last year, he should have significantly more talent at the receiver position. Jonathan Smith added four receivers from the transfer portal to pair with standout Sophomore Nick Marsh.

The coaching staff has been effusive with their praise of the offensive line, touting at least nine guys that they feel comfortable playing. And when you combine the questions that surround this MSU defense, I think there’s a chance that the game script becomes advantageous for big statistical days from this Spartan offense.

But what really intrigues me about this bet is what’s going on in the rest of the conference. This isn’t like it was a year ago where you had proven commodities like Dillon Gabriel and Will Howard. The “most reliable” quarterback right now is Drew Allar from Penn State. Behind him, there are questions all over the place. Julian Sayin (Ohio State), Dante Moore (Oregon), and Bryce Underwood (Michigan) are all young players that are not guaranteed to last the entire season as the starter.

Other favorites like Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) and Allar could find themselves on the bench for several fourth quarters with their teams comfortably ahead.

The downside here is obvious. Other quarterbacks like Jayden Maiava (USC) and Demond Williams Jr. (Washington) have more compelling cases than Chiles. But we know Chiles is the unquestioned starter. We don’t expect MSU to run away from a ton of opponents this year, meaning he’ll play a lot of snaps. And there’s talent around him. There are far worse bets to make at 30-1.