Michigan State football: How good is OT transfer Luke Newman?

Michigan State football landed tackle Luke Newman in the portal on Saturday, and we all are excited, but have one question: how good is he?

Late last week, Michigan State football landed FCS OT Luke Newman in the portal, and I noted in my article that he was underrated. Spartan Twitter account GLF was also curious, and she decided to crunch some numbers on Newman to figure out how “good” he really is.

As it turns out, Newman is really, really, good.

The Holy Cross transfer should have been ranked one of the top linemen in the portal, and the Spartans got a steal. There is no way he should be ranked as offensive tackle No. 35. Based on grades and a cumulative and understandable scoring system (created by GLF), we have reason to believe that Newman should be ranked as offensive tackle No. 2.

Here’s what we know about the newly-added Michigan State football transfer.

Number crunching Luke Newman’s Holy Cross career

In the article detailing his commitment, it was noted that Newman had an insane 87.8 PFF grading in 2023, including a 91.6 rating when pass-blocking. His pass-blocking rating topped the FCS, and his overall grade was No. 3. His run blocking is not too shabby, either, with Newman ranked No. 5 in the FCS in run-blocking this season. GLF decided to go through Newman’s numbers game-by-game, and some of the results are shocking.

Newman allowed one sack all season, coming against Bucknell. This one sack was out of 326 passing downs for the tackle this season. Additionally, Newman only had four hurries and five pressures throughout the season. Newman was also rarely penalized, only being flagged four times in 706 snaps. One concern is that of those four whistles, two came against Holy Cross’ only FBS opponent, Army.

Newman played most of his career at left tackle for the Crusaders, but did take limited reps at right tackle in 2020. With 1,057 career passing snaps between the two tackle positions, Newman allowed only seven sacks and committed 13 penalties. The 2023 season was a vast improvement for Newman, as he allowed five sacks in 349 snaps in 2022. However, Newman’s 2021 saw him only allow one sack in 357 reps.

How does Newman compare to other transferring offensive linemen?

This was the main focus of my comment that Newman was ranked much too lowly among players in the portal. GLF created a simple formula, where she took the percentage of snaps in which a player allowed a sack, QB hit, hurry, or pressure, ranked them, and then added the total together for a score. This is much like a golf score, where lower is better.

This system is designed off of a player’s entire career, not just the 2023 season. Additionally, a lineman had to have taken at least 500 career snaps to be eligible for the formula. Newman scores a 46 in this formula, which is good enough for eighth-best among the 36 players around him who have taken 500 snaps. Of those seven players ahead of him, there is only one player that is a tackle, fellow FCS transfer Easton Kilty of North Dakota. Newman is miles ahead of the No. 1 lineman transfer, Kayden Proctor. He ranks eighth of 10 left tackles under this formula.

Newman is hurt by his 2022 season, where he allowed five sacks. Take out his 2022 season, and the lineman allowed two sacks in nearly 700 reps at the tackle slots in 2020, 2021, and 2023. His sack rate has Newman listed at No. 29 of the 36 linemen. In the formula, that accounts for 29 of Newman’s 46 points. However, most of the tackles occupy the bottom half of the sack rate sheet, as you could guess. The EDGE rushers get the most sacks, after all.

What does PFF think?

Newman ranks the highest in grade against the pass this season, per PFF analytics. While this is not an entirely fair playing field, due to the lower competition, I thought that would be of note. He also ranks No. 3 against the run (behind two transfers from the C-USA and Sun Belt, so lesser competition as well, respectively) and No. 2 overall. The only player with a better PFF Offensive rating in 2023 is Omar Aigbedion, an MTSU transfer who is committed to Baylor and their new offensive line coach… Chris Kapilovic. The irony is real here.

Other players to note

For those curious at home, Oregon State transfer turned Michigan State football lineman Tanner Miller is also ranked in this formula. Miller ranks No. 31 of 36, but most of his strength comes against the run. This formula was entirely based on the pass.

Additionally, MSU transfer Kevin Wigenton was a surprising score on this, as he ranked No. 4 among guards and No. 5 overall, tied with Kilty. The Spartans are going to miss Wigenton this season on the interior. Granted, Wigenton squeaks onto this list in eligibility. The cutoff was 500 snaps, and Wigenton took 513 in his career. That is No. 35 of 36 players being graded. For a score like this, that is a low sample size.

How does Newman compare to his drafted counterparts?

Another element GLF decided to compare was Newman’s PFF grades from 2023 against other FCS linemen that got drafted. She took the PFF grades of these linemen following their final season before they got drafted since the 2016 NFL Draft. Newman also compares very favorably against these linemen, too. It’s worth noting that the players chosen for this comparison are ones that have stuck around in the league for multiple years, and not a straight comparison of every drafted FCS linemen.

Among the 11 FCS linemen drafted that GLF compared to (including three first-rounders: Tytus Howard, Trevor Penning, and Cole Strange), Newman’s 2023 season is the most prolific in terms of PFF grades against the past. In fact, the only other player to reach the 90.0 threshold against the pass from these 11 linemen was 2022 Chicago Bears’ fifth-rounder Braxton Jones, at 90.0 exact. Jones was named to the PWFA All-Rookie team his first season, and started most of the games this season, with injuries forcing him to miss six contests. This is a great sign for Newman, considering his 2023 score is even better than that of Jones’s in 2021.

The only linemen among these players to face more pass snaps than Newman (326) is that of first rounder Tytus Howard (383), and both players only allowed one sack their last FCS season. Howard also allowed six more pressures, two more hurries, and was penalized five more times. Newman is a rare breed to be able to keep his quarterback clean and keep the flags off the field at the tackle spot.

Newman ranks slightly lower with his run block grade, with his 83.0 placing him at eighth of the 12. However, most faced many more reps against the rush than that of the Holy Cross transfer.

Overall, Newman grades out right in the middle of these linemen. This is why I feel comfortable in saying that if he had declared for the NFL draft, he would be a late Day 2, or early Day 3 selection at worst.

Closing thoughts

In summary, Michigan State football landed a great tackle.

Newman can certainly hold his own on the outside. He will not allow an easy sack, and plays to the whistle. He keeps the quarterback clean, and you will not hear his name called for the dumb penalty. I think that Brandon Baldwin has his work cut out for him to keep the tackle spot. We are all very high on Newman, and these numbers by GLF helped confirm my confidence, and should help yours, too.

I would like to thank GLF for her aid on this article by providing all the numbers utilized in this. Without her work, I would just be the person saying that “Newman looks nice.” I am excited to see Newman on field in 2024, and think that he will be the starting Spartan left tackle. I am curious to see if the staff and coach Jim Michalczik elect to keep Newman at tackle, where he has performed highly at, or switch him to guard, where he would translate to in the NFL.