Michigan State football: How have past head coaches fared in year one?

How have past Michigan State football coaches fared in year one and what does it mean for Jonathan Smith in 2024?

Happy Memorial Day, everyone. While most normal people are spending the weekend ‘up north’ or at the lake, like a psycho, I’m over here contemplating what to expect out of new Michigan State football coach Jonathan Smith.

My contemplation got me thinking — what were the records for each of the last six head coach’s inaugural seasons and where do we think Smith’s will land?

Here’s the breakdown

1. Mel Tucker (2020): 2-5 (COVID)
2. Mark Dantonio (2007): 7-6
3. John L Smith (2003): 8-5
4. Bobby Williams (2000): 5-6
5. Nick Saban (1995): 6-5-1
6. George Perles (1983): 4-6-1

It’s funny to me to see that John L Smtih holds the best first-season record of the bunch given the era of mediocrity he brought to East Lansing. The other two coaches who were both above .500 are pretty notable names.

Nick Saban went 6-5-1 but then jumped ship to LSU and we all know the legendary run he went on after that. Mark Dantonio went 7-6 with a loss to Boston College in the Champs Sports Bowl.

What could success look like for Jonathan Smith’s first year?

Smith is inheriting a completely different program than all of these coaches. In the era of the transfer portal, we are looking at a complete overhaul and roster flip. Smith brought talent with him from Oregon State, but at the same time, he has lost players who would have stayed during another era.

On top of the portal factor, Smith is also competing in a new Big Ten, adding the likes of Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington. The Big Ten is more competitive now than ever before.

We need to be looking for competitive and competent games. Something that was not characteristic of the previous staff without Kenneth Walker III. Although losses will be inevitable in this first year, we cannot have 56-7 blowouts to the Ohio States of the world.

Smith draws a tough stretch in October. Home against Ohio State, at Oregon, and at Michigan will be a huge test for Smith’s scheme. I wouldn’t go into any of those games expecting to win. Outside of that stretch, things are manageable.

Draws like Boston College, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, and Rutgers won’t be cakewalks, but those are games you should still expect to win no matter where your program stands.

To me, 6-6 and competency against the current Big Ten juggernauts says that the Jonathan Smith era is off to a good start.