Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Iowa

It’s homecoming in East Lansing. Michigan State football, fresh off its bye week, returns to action against the Iowa Hawkeyes. These two teams played last season, with Iowa winning 26-16 after a late punt return touchdown. Believe it or not, this is Iowa’s first trip to Spartan Stadium since a 17-10 defeat in 2017. Can you name the MSU wide receiver who caught two touchdown passes in that game?

If you guessed Darrell Stewart or Cody White, you were close. But the answer is Felton Davis. It’s hard to believe that Iowa and MSU, both Big Ten members, have gone seven years without playing a game in East Lansing.

As far as this year’s game goes, here are some things to watch for and a prediction on what will happen.

1. Who grabs the lead?

It feels overly dramatic to call the first score in this game a “swing play”. But in a game that doesn’t expect to see much offense, I think it’s critical. Both teams are far more comfortable playing with a lead. Neither team is built to play from behind.

For Iowa, their passing limitations are obvious. Cade McNamara is throwing for 120 yards per game this season. If you remove the FCS game against Illinois State, that number dips to 109. He topped 100 yards passing in Big Ten play for the first time last week against Washington.

It’s no secret that Iowa wants to run the ball. That’s much easier to lean on with the lead. It also plays to your advantage when you have an offense on the other side that is prone to mistakes. Third downs, no matter the distance, can become running downs. Punts become your friend. And you can play the field position game and lean on your defense. That’s the formula for Iowa football.

While Michigan State has some explosiveness to its game, this isn’t a good matchup for their offense. Under defensive coordinator Phil Parker, Iowa has been as good as anyone at limiting explosive plays. This year is no different. Through six games, Iowa has allowed only 18 plays of 20 yards or more.

That’s going to force Michigan State football to sustain lengthy drives. That’s been a problem for the Spartans. They’ve consistently killed drives this season with penalties, sacks, turnovers, and a myriad of other mistakes.

The Hawkeyes come into the game with a plus-six turnover margin, with seven interceptions on the year. Aidan Chiles’ interception woes have been well documented.

On one side, you have an Iowa team that does not want to pass the football. On the other, you have a young quarterback with an offense that always feels one play away from catastrophe. Falling behind early, even by a touchdown, will feel insurmountable to both sides. A negative game script does not favor either offense. I’m interested to see how the strategy changes for these teams after the first score.

2. The line of scrimmage

Another week, another stiff test for Michigan State’s front seven on defense. Iowa has always been a run-first offense. The difference between this team and teams of recent memory is that they can run it with some oomph. Iowa is tied for second nationally, behind Army, with 19 rushes of 20 or more yards.

Iowa ranks 12th in American with 223 rushing yards per game. Kaleb Johnson has been a monster this season, averaging almost eight yards per carry and over 156 yards per game. His 937 yards are good for second in America, behind Ashton Jeanty.

We were encouraged by this Michigan State rush defense through the first five games. However, Oregon put them in their place two weeks ago after piling up 213 yards. The Spartans were without linebacker Jordan Hall in that game. They dearly missed him, because the linebackers that did play had a rough night.

Hall went through warmups against Oregon, suggesting he was close. With a bye week to recover, it feels like there is a good chance he’ll go on Saturday. Is his presence enough to correct some of the things that went wrong against Oregon? Did MSU’s staff use the off week to integrate some new faces into the rotation at linebacker?

Offensively, for Michigan State, it’s about preventing disaster. While Iowa isn’t particularly intimidating off the edge, they’re going to force pressure up the middle. Aaron Graves, Yahya Black, and a host of other Hawkeyes are going to be a handful for the interior of Michigan State’s offensive line.

Michigan State football already struggles to run the ball. This isn’t going to be the night when it gets fixed. But they’ll need to sprinkle it in to keep the Hawkeyes honest. The Spartans have to avoid the drive killing plays. They’ve got to keep Chiles clean. They’ve got to avoid the 2nd-and-8 running plays that lose five yards.

Most importantly, Chiles needs to take care of the ball.

This is the game right here. If Michigan State can’t slow down this Iowa running attack, they’ll be content to run it all night and slowly strangle the Spartans. If MSU can’t protect Chiles, he will turn the ball over and give Iowa short fields.

3. The little things

If you’ve watched Iowa over the years, you’ve probably walked away wondering how they manage to win as many games as the Hawkeyes do. The answer is simple. It’s the little things. They add up. Over the course of a game, or the course of a season, they make a massive difference.

Whatever you think of Kirk Ferentz, you have to respect his consistency with Iowa’s attention to detail. Year after year, Iowa has elite special teams. They don’t commit penalties. And they win the turnover battle.

As Michigan State football fans are finding out, those things matter a great deal.

Nobody in the country commits fewer penalties than Iowa. As mentioned, they are a top 20 team in turnover margin. They are top 30 in punting. They are 10 for 11 on field goals this year. The bottom line is, they don’t beat themselves.

Michigan State, on the other hand, would be a playoff team if the rankings were based on beating yourself. They are outside the top 100 in penalties, turnover margin, and red zone efficiency.

The one area where Michigan State matches up is the kicking game. Ryan Eckley and Jonathan Kim are as good as anyone – even Iowa.

Cooper DeJean’s punt return in the fourth quarter last year showed how much these things matter. Michigan State, at times this year, has been a disaster waiting to happen. Nobody is better at capitalizing on that than Iowa.

Prediction

Iowa is a six-point favorite on the road with a total of 39.5. For what it’s worth, Michigan State is 3-1 against the spread this season as an underdog.

For Jonathan Smith and Michigan State football, this feels like a game they’ve got to have. You’re at home, at night, during homecoming, off a bye week. Having lost three games in a row, the Spartans have to find a way to stop the bleeding. If MSU can’t get this one, their path to a bowl game feels unlikely.

Iowa is improved offensively. But this Michigan State defense has been feisty. And make no mistake. Iowa’s offense has improved from “horrendous” to “average”. MSU’s defense should be able to keep them in this game.

Offensively, the Spartans found some success running Chiles in the second half against Oregon. I’m curious to see if they lean on that more to try and loosen up the Hawkeye defense. And while Iowa is excellent at limiting explosive plays, it only takes one to change the game.

At the end of the night though, for MSU to win this game, they’re going to have to play a game we haven’t seen them play yet. Iowa is not going to beat themselves. Michigan State can.

Maybe the off week was what this group needed to get their act together. This is a great spot. I expect them to play hard. But they have to earn our trust. Until proven otherwise, their undoing will be at their own expense.

Final score: Iowa 20, Michigan State 17