Michigan State Football no longer favored vs. Washington, per ESPN FPI

Michigan State football was once favored to beat Washington in Week 3 by ESPN’s FPI, but that’s no longer the case.

Michigan State football still has to get by Richmond this week but let’s be honest, it’s hard to not look ahead to our Week 3 matchup. The Spartans will welcome a top-10 opponent in Washington to East Lansing in Week 3 in what will easily be the biggest game of the year thus far. After losing to Washington a season ago, the Spartans have revenge on their minds.

Most sportsbooks and media outlets have Washington as the solid favorite in this matchup. That, however, wasn’t the case with ESPN, until now.

ESPN FPI favored Michigan State all offseason

All offseason, ESPNs Football Power Index (FPI) had Michigan State as the slight favorite over Washington. Four months ago, I wrote about how they shockingly gave us a 56 percent chance to win this game. This percentage was as high as 59 percent at one point. To be honest however, I didn’t think this was that far-fetched.

Home field matters in college football. It matters even more when the visiting team has to travel across the country. There is no doubt that this impacted us last year in Seattle, so ESPN might have thought this would impact Washington this year as well.

We also have revenge on our minds after Washington beat us last year 39-28. An 11-point loss isn’t terrible, but the game was more out of reach than the score indicates. Spartan nation would also have revenge on our minds. This will be our first big game of the season, and with a 5 p.m. ET start and alcohol now in Spartan Stadium, the atmosphere is going to be insane. These points might have had something to do with ESPN favoring us in this game all offseason.

What does ESPN think now?

With Week 1 in the books, ESPN has since changed its mind on this game. The percent chance of us pulling off this upset has shifted from 59 percent to 43 percent. A 16 percent decrease is a massive swing after just one game. Is that swing justified?

In my opinion it is definitely justified. Michigan State football easily beat Central according to the final score, but the game felt a lot closer than the 31-7 final score. We struggled in the first half offensively until pulling away in the second half. I’m sure ESPN and the entire country would have expected us to dominate the entire game, not just the second half.

On the flip side, Washington did dominate its Week 1 opponent. Washington played a home game against Boise State to start the season, destroying the Broncos 56-19. Boise State was viewed as a solid team, too, receiving some preseason AP votes and were only 14-point underdogs on the road against a top-10 team. This blowout win for Washington definitely raised some eyebrows, including mine.

One interesting thing to note is that the Vegas line in the Washington-Michigan State game hasn’t changed much. During the offseason, the betting line floated around Washington being favored by 12.5 points. That now sits at 11.5 points, which is interesting to not see that line shoot up. Maybe that has to do with this game still being two weeks away, but that will be an interesting number to watch.

Mel Tucker and Michigan State will have their hands full in two weeks. This Washington team has College Football Playoff aspirations and can’t afford to lose to us if they want to accomplish that. We also need this one desperately. A win in this game shows that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. This would indicate that Michigan State is the real deal and are a contender in the Big Ten East. I can’t wait for this one.