With the 2024 Michigan State football season upon us, let’s take a look at the official betting preview for the Spartans.
Michigan State football starting quarterback Aidan Chiles made headlines last Thursday when he encouraged people to “bet the over” on the Spartans’ season win total of five. It inspired me to take a look at all of the preseason betting markets for Michigan State.
I’ll offer my opinion on the odds, what they mean, and whether they could be worth playing. This is not professional advice. It’s an opinion.
As always, if you’re gambling, do so responsibly and within your means.
Michigan State to win the national championship: 1000-1
We’ll get this out of the way early on. It’s not happening. The thought of this team getting into the playoff and then winning three, potentially four games against the best teams in the country is way too far-fetched. Yes, the odds are crazy. No, that doesn’t mean you have to play it.
Michigan State to make the College Football Playoff: 100-1
You’re better off keeping your money on the sidelines with this as well. But it’s not nearly as difficult to imagine as winning the national title. The 2021 Michigan State team had a similar preseason win total, and that team would have made this version of the expanded playoff. For teams in the Big Ten and SEC, nine wins should be enough to get into the field. It’s also not guaranteed.
The problem for this MSU team is that it’ll probably need to beat one of Ohio State, Oregon, or Michigan to have a shot. That, of course, assumes they win at least eight or nine other games on their schedule. I’m not positive nine wins with losses to those three teams mentioned would be enough. The Spartans would be left with a home win over Iowa and a road victory at Maryland or Boston College as their most impressive. That’s probably not enough.
The most likely path to the playoff is a 10-win season with a victory over Michigan. Keep in mind, right now, Michigan State football is a 24-point underdog in that game. The other is avoiding the Big Ten title game. A 9-3 or 10-2 MSU team might make the field — 9-4 or 10-3 does not. I wouldn’t play this, and I’d advise anyone reading to do the same.
Michigan State to win the Big Ten: 200-1
This belongs in the same “keep dreaming” category as the national championship wager. To get to Indianapolis, the Spartans are going to have to win a minimum of 10 games. While unlikely, it’s not impossible. But for MSU to win the conference, they’d need to replicate their performance against one of the Big Ten elites from earlier in the season. I could see MSU beating Michigan or Ohio State once, but I can’t see them taking down that caliber of team twice. Take 2021 as an example. MSU beat Michigan for their “signature victory”. Were you at all confident they could do it again at the end of the season? That’s what you’re betting on here. It’s a pass for me.
Michigan State to make the Big Ten championship: 90-1
Not that it really matters, but I’m not sure why these odds are shorter than the playoff odds. To me, it’s far more likely that Michigan State finishes 9-3 and backs into a weak field than it is that they win 10 or 11 games to make the Big Ten title game. As stated previously, in an 18-team league, I think 10 wins is the minimum in order to make it to Indy. In any case, this is an extremely unlikely outcome for MSU in 2024. The odds reflect that. Pass.
Michigan State season wins: O/U 5
The only realistic decision many bettors will have to make with Michigan State football this season is their preseason win total. This number has floated between 5 and 5.5 for most of the summer. The even VIG on both sides of the number indicate the books are projecting a 5-7 season for MSU.
I’m not sure if I’ve ever gone into a season looking to endorse the under on Michigan State’s season win total. After Aidan Chiles’ comments on Thursday, I’m not going to make 2024 a first.
Listen, my memory of Michigan State football goes back to about the year 2000. In the 23 years I’ve been watching the Spartans, I can confidently say 2023 was the most unenjoyable season of my life. The off-field situation was embarrassing. The on-field product was non-competitive. With all of that said, that team still managed to win four games. They handed two other games away against Iowa and Rutgers.
A school like Michigan State, with its resources and baseline level of talent, can’t be any worse than they were last year. I simply don’t buy the idea that an overhauled roster, new coaching staff, and easier schedule is only worth one additional win.
Yes, you still have to play Michigan and Ohio State. You’re replacing Penn State with a game at Oregon. But after leading at Iowa in the fourth quarter, you now get them at home off a bye. You replace a game against national runner-up Washington with Boston College in Bill O’Brien’s first year. You also get three of the projected worst five teams in the conference in Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois.
Couple that with games you’ll be favored in against FAU and Prairie View, and I think MSU at least gets to five wins pretty easily. The game at Maryland in September and the finale against Rutgers at home probably determines whether they can get to six.
But at five, I think the worst thing that happens is a push. We’re going over. We’re standing with QB1.
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