Michigan State football: Scouting report and a prediction vs. Maryland

Michigan State football will be traveling to College Park on Saturday afternoon to face Maryland. Let’s dive into a scouting report.

Michigan State football and Maryland will kick off the Big Ten season in College Park on Saturday.

Although both teams were victorious in Week 1, the general feelings around those victories could not be more different. Maryland dismantled Connecticut 50-7 while Michigan State needed a late defensive stand to beat FAU 16-10. While we have no idea how those opponents compare to one another, it feels safe to say that Maryland played well, and Michigan State did not.

Regardless, Week 1 is in the past. Saturday represents a new opportunity for both teams.

Here are some things to watch for and a prediction.

1. Michigan State’s defense

In a game that was filled with mistakes, the lone bright spot for MSU in Week 1 was its defense. The Spartans were in attack mode all night against quarterback Cam Fancher and the FAU offense. MSU forced 10 tackles for loss, seven sacks, and two interceptions. FAU went just 2-for-14 on third downs and needed several Michigan State penalties to sustain drives. This week, we’ll get an answer about the validity of what we saw.

Is this a seriously stingy unit, or were they aided by an inept offense with a limited quarterback?

Maryland amassed 629 yards of offense in their rout of Connecticut. The Terps were balanced, efficient, and explosive. Quarterback Billy Edwards threw for 311 yards while the offense racked up 248 yards on the ground. Maryland scored touchdowns from 18, 48, 75, and 24 yards out. Granted, Connecticut may be the worst team in the country by season’s end. But at the very least, this will be a step up in difficulty for this Spartan defense.

That’s evidenced by the talent Maryland has at its skill positions. Senior receivers Tai Felton and Kaden Prather will test a short-handed MSU secondary. In the backfield, Roman Hemby will lead the way with impressive freshman Nolan Ray sprinkled in.

MSU’s chances of leaving College Park with a win hinge entirely on this unit. MSU’s offensive issues don’t look fixable in a week. They’ll need to keep this game in the high teens or low 20s to have a chance at victory. That calls upon another stout defensive effort.

2. Can Michigan State tighten the screws?

With 61 new players on the roster, some rust and clunkiness were to be expected in Week 1. But Michigan State football was downright bad in numerous areas against FAU. The Spartans committed 12 penalties for 140 yards. They turned the ball over three times, and two times in the red zone. They also recovered their own fumble in FAU territory to prevent a fourth turnover. And on two fourth-and-short situations, MSU ran the ball conservatively up the middle. One was stuffed for a loss while the other was awarded after a very generous spot.

These mistakes allowed FAU to hang around much longer than they should have. Simply put, that’s not good enough to win in the Big Ten. It’s hard for good teams to overcome those miscues, let alone average teams, which might be a generous label for this Michigan State football team.

With all of that said, you typically see the most improvement from Weeks 1 to 2. Jonathan Smith is an experienced head coach with a track record that suggests that performance was an outlier. At the same time, this is a young team that might not be ready to play any other way. As an underdog on the road, the Spartans will need to stick to the cliches like red zone efficiency, limiting turnovers, and avoiding penalties.

If this game on Saturday looks anything like the FAU game, it will get out of hand quickly for Michigan State.

3. Michigan State’s skill players

Aidan Chiles took a lot of criticism for his 10-for-24 performance against FAU. My main concern with his ceiling this season was the absence of weapons within this MSU offense. Even with those concerns baked into my expectations, I didn’t expect it to be this dire. Chiles completed six passes to wide receivers. All-conference transfer Jack Velling had one reception for 11 yards. The leading receiver for MSU was Michael Masunas… with 29 yards. In the running game, yes, Kay-Ron Lynch-Adams looked good, but 63 of his 101 yards came on one carry. Starter Nate Carter was bottled up for 48 yards on 19 attempts.

Offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren has to find a way to make life easier for his quarterback. That involves getting the ball to his best playmakers. MSU undoubtedly withheld part of its playbook in the opener with a conference game on deck. Look for more designed plays to Velling, Montorie Foster, and Jaron Glover. Alante Brown’s injury could open the door for talented freshmen Nick Marsh and Aziah Johnson.

Chiles’ talent gives MSU a chance in almost every game they will play this fall. But, he can’t do it by himself. He’s going to need his skill players to step up more than they did last Friday. On the road, against a conference opponent is a tough task. Time to find out who’s ready for the challenge.

Prediction

As of this writing, Michigan State football is a 9.5-point underdog in College Park. The total is interesting — 44.5 suggests a very low-scoring affair. Surprisingly, that number was also the total for both team’s Week 1 games. That indicates that the sportsbooks weren’t all that impressed with Maryland’s 50-burger against the Huskies. It also implies that MSU’s defense might have some teeth to it.

I tend to agree with both assessments. To me, this is a classic Week 1 overreaction spot to the casual observer. With all due respect to Maryland, I’m not taking anything away from their game against UConn. That is an FCS program masquerading as an FBS one to funnel more money toward their basketball teams.

From Michigan State’s point of view, I do believe the offensive struggles are real. But I also believe that was the worst offensive game they will play all season. If they can clean up some of the mistakes, and take care of the ball, they’ll be far better off than they were a week ago.

Defensively, I believe in what I saw.

This is going to be an adjustment for Maryland. Unlike UConn, Joe Rossi’s defense should be able to limit explosive plays and generate a pass rush. His blitz packages on third downs can confuse Billy Edwards Jr., who is making just his second career start. Offensively, I expect MSU to open the playbook a bit more than they did against FAU. That, combined with the correcting of some mistakes should allow them to build off a horrible Week 1.

The low total favors the underdog, and I’ll trust Michigan State’s defense (and lack of offense) to keep this game underneath the total. In the end, though, Maryland has the edge with their depth and experience – particularly at receiver. Bryce McFerson is also an excellent punter for Maryland. He and Ryan Eckley are going to be flipping field position all afternoon. The under is the play.

Michigan State football shows improvement but can’t string together enough scores to start 2-0.

Prediction: Michigan State: 16, Maryland 24