Michigan State football: Scouting report, prediction vs. FAU

Michigan State football opens the season on Friday night against FAU and here’s everything you need to know about the Owls.

It’s time. We made it. After eight long months, Michigan State football makes its return on Friday night in Spartan Stadium. Former Texas head coach Tom Herman brings his Florida Atlantic squad up from Boca Raton to open the 2024 season.

Here are three things to watch for, and a score prediction.

1. New faces and new places

That’s the theme around college football, with the transfer portal and NIL upending the landscape of the sport. These two teams are no exception. Former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith will make his debut on the sidelines for the Spartans. Along with him, there are 61 new players on the roster. MSU will start new players at every position group other than running back, kicker, and punter. The most notable newcomers for MSU are quarterback Aidan Chiles, tight end Jack Velling, center Tanner Miller, linebackers Wayne Matthews III, and Jordan Turner.

Michigan State will also be breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators.

For FAU, it’s a similar story. While they maintain some coaching stability, their roster has undergone a complete overhaul from last season. The Owls are a bottom-10 team in FBS in returning production. Along with a new quarterback, FAU will be looking to replace four offensive linemen and three receivers from last year’s offense. Defensively, they return their linebacking corps but have plenty of questions up front and in the secondary.

Given all the new pieces on both sides, it’s probably fair to expect a fair bit of rust as these teams adjust to a live game setting for the first time together. Neither offense returns much continuity, so it’s possible this first quarter is a rock fight.

The decisive advantage in that type of game lies with Michigan State because of its special teams. Ryan Eckley becomes a weapon in the field position game while Jonathan Kim can put MSU on the scoreboard without getting in the end zone.

2. Quarterbacks

You can’t talk about Michigan State football in 2024 without mentioning Aidan Chiles. The Oregon State transfer comes with pedigree after forcing his way onto the field in Corvallis as a 17-year-old freshman. A year later, he’s the captain (literally) of a new ship in East Lansing.

The 6-foot-3 sophomore is a true dual threat quarterback who has done nothing to quiet the hype since his arrival. If Michigan State is going to overachieve this year, it’s most likely because Chiles is as advertised. There are some questions at receiver for the Spartans. The offensive line feels far from settled. It’s also his first career start. In game one, I don’t expect things to go perfectly. But at the very least, we should get a good, long look at what Chiles brings to the table for this MSU offense.

For FAU, they’ll be starting Marshall transfer quarterback Cam Fancher. Unlike Chiles, we’ve got plenty of history to examine with Fancher. Across 25 games at Marshall, Fancher threw for almost 3,800 yards and 21 touchdowns to go with 17 interceptions. He also rushed for five touchdowns. The first thing that stands out when looking into Fancher’s numbers is the completion percentage. An uninspiring career mark of 61 percent is inflated by some horrendous defensive units across the Sun Belt. In 2023, seven of Fancher’s 11 total touchdown passes came in four games. The remaining four came across six games where he also threw nine interceptions. He’s also struggled to throw the ball down the field. In 17 starts, he’s thrown for over 250 yards just six times. Then, there are the interceptions. In 10 games last season, he tossed 11 interceptions. Seventeen interceptions in 17 starts is not the ratio you want from your starting quarterback.

If Chiles can play within himself, and take care of the ball, MSU should have a decisive advantage here. There’s enough tape on Fancher for defensive coordinator Joe Rossi to prepare a scheme. FAU won’t have that luxury. History suggests Fancher won’t be accurate enough to seriously test Michigan State’s secondary. He should also be good for a turnover or two.

3. Michigan State’s ground game

If I had to identify one key to the outcome of this game, this is it. Michigan State football is breaking in a new quarterback, young receivers, and a re-arranged offensive line. Life would be a lot easier for this group if they could line up and pound it down the field. The ground game has always been the staple of Jonathan Smith coached teams, and there’s no reason to expect anything different at MSU.

Still, that’s easier said than done. FAU knows that’s what MSU wants to do, so they’re likely going to sell out against the run. There is some talent in that defensive line in the form of Power Four transfers. Michigan State’s offensive line performance through the years doesn’t guarantee that they’ll be able to get their way with things on Friday.

Still, Michigan State’s best player on offense is tailback Nate Carter. Even amidst dire circumstances a year ago, Carter impressed. Unlike last year, he’ll have a running mate to help lighten his workload. UMass transfer Kay’ron Lynch-Adams is a powerful runner that should handle some of the work between the tackles. That tandem, along with the legs of Chiles, should give MSU the leg up.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, offensive line play is the position that can swing this Michigan State season in either direction. I can’t wait to see how much of an impact offensive line coach Jim Michalczik has in one off-season.

Prediction

Michigan State is a two-touchdown favorite at home with a total of 45. Given how little we know about these teams, that feels like a number weighed heavily on brand association. Personally, I’m not getting involved in betting on this game one way or the other. There are too many unknowns across the board to endorse something in good faith.

Remember, there is no preseason in college football. The media is not allowed to watch practice. We won’t know of any injuries or suspensions until kickoff. Coaches also have the luxury of holding their depth chart extremely close to the vest. There will certainly be a couple of surprises on Friday night.

I envision a game where Michigan State leads for most, if not the entire way, but never feels comfortable. I suspect the running game to be effective, but inconsistent. The passing game is a step behind as MSU works to find a rotation of receivers. Defensively, I like a healthy MSU secondary and linebacking core to contain Cam Fancher and this new look FAU offense.

The real difference makers are on special teams. I expect Ryan Eckley to put this FAU offense deep in their own territory on multiple occasions. And I expect Jonathan Kim to salvage stalled red zone drives with a couple of field goals. FAU has a completely untested punter and kicker. MSU plays conservatively with Maryland on deck but wins in unconvincing fashion.

Prediction: Michigan State 30, FAU 16