Michigan State football vs. Michigan: Preview and Prediction

Well, it’s here. The battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is renewed for the 118^th time this Saturday in Spartan Stadium. The state of the Michigan State football program has taken away some of the sizzle that surrounds this game. Nonetheless, it’s still Michigan State vs. Michigan. By the time kickoff rolls around, it will still mean everything to a lot of people. Here’s what I’m watching, betting, and expecting to happen.

1. Michigan State Football and Their Run Defense

This is the game, folks. It’s no secret that Michigan wants to run the ball. Under Sherrone Moore, the Wolverines have tried to push forward with the team that they were under Jim Harbaugh. They want to run the ball, control time of possession, and play suffocating defense. In this game, they’ll look to do the same.

Although talented, freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is still learning. And this group of Michigan receivers is nothing special. Moore has coached very conservatively in road games this season, and I wouldn’t expect Saturday to be any different.

Because, that approach might be the secret sauce to winning this game. The Wolverines are averaging over 5.8 yards per carry this season. And although MSU’s rush defense numbers aren’t bad, there are some troubling numbers against stiff competition. MSU allowed over 230 yards on the ground against USC and UCLA. Last week at Indiana, the Hoosiers rushed for almost five yards per carry.

Michigan State football doesn’t have to turn the clock back to 2013 and hold the Wolverines to -47 yards rushing to win this game. But they do have to generate some run stuffs and force Michigan into some obvious passing situations. Because MSU has been awful at getting off the field on third downs, allowing a 46% conversion rate on the season. If this Spartan defense can’t find success on first and second down, we should see more of the same conversion rates on Saturday.

Michigan’s home run hitter, running back Justice Haynes, missed last week’s game against Washington. He’s a name to watch for on the pre-game injury report. If he goes, that makes life more difficult for the Spartans.

2. Aidan Chiles vs the Blitz

It’s a Wink Martindale defense. So, if you’re Aidan Chiles and Michigan State football, you know what’s coming. Pressure.

Historically, that’s been a problem for Chiles. When he feels pressure, turnovers usually start to pop up. That’s concerning, because this is a Michigan defense that has thrived on takeaways this season. The Wolverines sport a +9 turnover margin, with 11 interceptions, including one in each game this season.

On paper, Chiles was solid against Martindale’s defense last year, completing 17-of-23 passes for 189 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions. But he did make one of the game’s largest mistakes, holding onto the ball too long, against pressure, resulting in a sack fumble that led directly to a Michigan field goal before halftime.

Those mistakes cannot occur this weekend, especially given the state of this Spartan defense. But there are a couple of things that could work in MSU’s favor against Martindale’s pressure.

For starters, MSU could be getting a couple pieces back up front. Left tackle Stanton Ramil and guard Kristian Phillips have both missed time with injuries, but neither are considered long-term. If either, or both, are able to go on Saturday, that only helps. Ramil was recently revealed as IN for today’s contest by Pete Thamel.

Secondly, MSU is better at receiver than they were a year ago. Blitzing often leaves cornerbacks and safeties in one-on-one coverage. Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly can win those matchups. MSU did not trust that a year ago in this game with Marsh and Montorie Foster Jr. They must take chances this time around.

I doubt MSU will be able to run the ball effectively against this outstanding front seven for Michigan. But MSU’s offense is at its best with Chiles throwing downfield, anyway. He’s going to face some heat in this game. How he handles it will be the key.

3. Playing to Win

Every sports fan knows there is a fine line between playing to win and playing not to lose. Much of the conversation this week has centered on Jonathan Smith’s conservative approach to last year’s game. He’s said a lot of the right things this week. To his credit, he admitted last year that he underestimated the intensity of this rivalry.

Looking back to last year, I stand by my belief that he wasn’t as conservative as people remember. In that game, Smith attempted an onside kick, attempted two fourth downs, and was set to go for it again on the opening drive from the two before a delay of game penalty forced him to attempt a field goal (that was an uncharacteristic Jonathan Kim miss). I would argue he was too aggressive at the end of the half when he tried to throw it with 14 seconds left from his own 39. Chiles was sacked and fumbled, which led to a Michigan field goal.

The point is, I don’t think this is as big of an issue as people are making it out to be. Maybe he underestimated the nastiness and the physicality of this rivalry. But I don’t think any of those observations impacted his decisions in trying to win the game.

Make no mistake, there’s a lot of pressure on Sherrone Moore in this game, too. Michigan is a big favorite in this game for a reason. The last thing you want to do is give a big underdog like MSU hope. Moore has to stay aggressive in this game and put MSU away early. If Michigan wins the toss, he should take the ball and do whatever he can to make this a 7-0 game.

This is a desperation game for Jonathan Smith and Michigan State football. You’re getting everything they have. Does Sherrone Moore and Michigan respond with equal aggression? Or will they play not to lose?

Prediction

Michigan is out to a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. The Wolverines have taken some money after opening near the 12-point line as favorites last Sunday.

As stated, this is an all-in spot for Michigan State football. It is their chance at a bowl game, their chance to make a lasting memory from this season. At this point, even Jonathan Smith’s job depends on it. It’s all on the line this Saturday at Spartan Stadium. I expect their best effort. I expect this coaching staff to throw the kitchen sink at the Wolverines.

But… will it be enough? Michigan has significant advantages at the line of scrimmage. They should be able to run the ball with some consistency. They’ll be able to get pressure on Chiles with their base rush packages. And it feels like Bryce Underwood is poised to take that next step at some point this season. Perhaps Saturday is that moment.

It’s rare that I come into this rivalry game without a strong conviction on what will happen. But this is one of those instances. I get the appeal for the home dog catching more than two touchdowns in this game. Because we’ve seen lesser Michigan State teams rise to the occasion against Michigan.

At the same time, we haven’t seen it under Jonathan Smith. So many of these games get away from the Spartans because they do things to hurt themselves. Like most subpar teams, they let things snowball until they get out of hand. Because of that, it also wouldn’t shock me to see Michigan cover this number with ease.

I do think the total is interesting though. I’m playing over 47.5. The Spartans haven’t held an opponent under 24 points since their opener against Western Michigan. They’ve given up at least 38 points in four straight games. And I liked what we saw from Aidan Chiles last week. He looked healthy, and the quick passing game allowed them to move the ball against a strong Indiana defense. MSU should also be aggressive on fourth downs, which could turn some field goals into touchdowns.

Michigan: 35

Michigan State: 21