Michigan State football vs. Michigan preview: Bring Paul home

Michigan State football will get a crack at Michigan on Saturday night in Ann Arbor. It’s time to bring Paul home.

If Michigan has a million haters, I am one of them.
If Michigan has a hundred haters, I am one of them.
If Michigan has one hater, that hater is me.
If Michigan football has no haters, that means I am dead.
If the world is with Michigan, then I am against the world.
Until my last breath, I will hate Michigan.

Now that we got that out of the way.

WEEK 9 – AT MICHIGAN, 7:30 PM, BTN

A game that was once a 24.5-point spread has now dwindled to five, with some spots having it as low as 3.5. I only bring up these betting lines as a means to illustrate how much the gap has closed over since the season started a mere two months ago. In terms of vibes, the difference couldn’t be more stark. Michigan State football is coming off a big home win against Iowa, where it never looked at any point that the Spartans were in true danger of losing.

Michigan State played its most competent game of the season in all facets. Iowa was a team you can beat with threes and Michigan State knew it, attempting seven field goals and converting on six of them. Coming out of the bye week it was clear that the team improved relative to their first six games of the season. Jonathan Smith and the Spartans now need to ensure there is consistency moving forward in their competency.

The vibes for that school down the road could not be worse at the moment.

Currently in the middle of a two-game losing streak that is one tackle and one call away from potentially being a four-game losing streak, Michigan has been anemic, at best, on offense outside of the home run hitting from Kalel Mullings. Their defense is the only thing keeping them in games, but even they have been allowing 20-plus points in five of their last six games. With three top 15 teams left on the schedule, two of which being Oregon and Ohio State, this game should be considered a must win for the Wolverines, not because of the rivalry, but to ensure they make a bowl game.

Positionally, these teams are much more even than one would think when camp opened in early August.

The Aidan Chiles experience is an absolute roller coaster, and its crazy to said only four turnovers in the last three games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Iowa is an improvement, but it is. Chiles showed in the Iowa game his growth in protecting the football while still pushing the ball down field. We also saw much more designed run from Chiles against Iowa and it came with a good amount of success.

Even with the risks of Chiles being turnover prone, I would still take him 100 out of 100 times over the quarterback trio that Michigan has been trotting out. I now understand why Jim Harbaugh called JJ McCarthy the greatest quarterback he’s seen in a Michigan uniform because he was being compared to a room full of these other bozos. While a starter was not named at the podium during Sherrone Moore’s presser this week, indication is that AARP candidate Jack Tuttle will be Michigan’s starter this Saturday. If that name sounds familiar, it should, because he’s been playing college football since Mark Dantonio was still on the sidelines for Michigan State. It was Tuttle who gave Cal Haladay one of his three career highlights by throwing a ball directly at him in 2021 when the Spartans won in Bloomington. Tuttle posts a QBR of 33.6, which would be good for 117th nationally and last in the Big Ten. This is the guy Kirk Campbell and Moore thinks gives Michigan the best chance of winning.

The alternatives, Davis Warren, a former walk-on who plays like a former walk-on, and Alex Orji, who some compared to Cam Newton and also named the best return man on Michigan’s roster. Michigan’s offense will devolve into the triple option if Orji has to come into the game at any point.

UPDATE: Warren was named the starter.

Under center, it’s advantage Michigan State and it’s not close.

In terms of pass-catchers, advantage goes to Michigan State.

Two-time Big Ten Freshman of the Week Nick Marsh is emerging as the headlining receiver for Michigan State football. The Spartans have five different receivers logging over 100 receiving yards, and four with at least one receiving touchdown.

Michigan’s receiving corps is headlined by Colston Loveland, your prototypical Michigan tight end who is the quarterback’s security blanket and first read on a must get third down. Loveland and Semaj Morgan are the only receivers with 100-plus receiving yards, with their second tight end Marlin Klein and receiver Tyler Morris with 80 and 73 yards, respectively. Outside of Loveland, Michigan State holds the advantage here as well.

As noted in the quarterback discussion, the person getting these players the ball is important, but Michigan State has a better chance of pressing the Michigan secondary than the Michigan receivers pressing a Michigan State secondary. Again, advantage MSU.

The trenches are where we start to see the advantage tip towards the Wolverines. The Wolverines’ offensive line is a far cry from the Joe Moore caliber lines that Michigan had the luxury of having the past three seasons. In terms of PFF grading, which is really all that we have left in determining the success and prowess of an offensive line, Michigan ranks 103rd in pass blocking, and 45th in run blocking. This is incredibly far away from what was ranked as the pre-season 25th-best offensive line unit per Athlon Sports. While this offensive line is very down under Michigan standards, it still beats out a Michigan State offensive line that is 131st in pass blocking and 84th in run blocking. While the patchwork offensive line looked great against Iowa out of a bye week, I’m not buying it completely until I see it more than once. Advantage Michigan on this one, but it’s not the disparity it has been in the past.

Michigan’s front seven has some guys. Josiah Stewart, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant have game wrecking abilities, and they really forced the issue against a USC team that looked wholly unprepared to see that level of pressure. Rayshaun Benny has also shown prowess in the interior as well. Jaishawn Barnham is a good athlete who can make plays and Ernest Hausmann is their leading tackler. This, in my opinion, is the entire team. If you’re able to limit the impact the front four has, you should be able to exploit the other seven players.

Michigan State football has really run its front seven by platoon so far this season, without having a single player truly stand out head and shoulders above the rest. Nine players have at least one sack. Jordan Turner and Cal Haladay each have 20-plus tackles on the year. The pass rush has been an issue against teams the likes of Oregon and Ohio State, but may be able to make some hay against this Michigan offensive line. The most glaring weakness in this front seven has been the linebackers in pass coverage, something that may be exploited with Loveland being the biggest receiving threat and the option to have Edwards coming out of the backfield. Michigan State was stout against an incredibly one-dimensional Iowa offense, and will look to do the same against Michigan.

However, I think the Michigan front could cause some major headaches for Chiles and this offensive line if they aren’t up for the challenge. Advantage Michigan.

In the secondary, Michigan poses a success rate of 36.8%, good for 39th nationally. They also rank 34th nationally in EPA/dropback with -0.055/play. Will Johnson is the key to the Wolverines’ backend and has saved their backend multiple times, already account for two pick-sixes on jumped routes in the flat that he housed for six. There are rumors that he may be out of this game due to injury or “injury” but that won’t be known for sure until the availability report comes out Saturday. If Johnson is out, this is a secondary that Michigan State does have the ability to exploit. Jyaire Hill is the cornerback opposite of Johnson and has fared well against all the teams that can’t throw the ball proficiently. His worst two games per PFF were against Texas & Washington.

Despite the results on paper, Michigan State’s passing attack has been potent in moving the ball downfield and has shown the ability to stretch a team vertically. I do not think this a good matchup for this Michigan secondary sans Johnson. Coming out of playing against the sixth and 12th-best passing attacks in EPA/dropback in Ohio State and Oregon, Michigan State’s secondary will welcome seeing an offense who ranks 99th in the same statistic. While not perfect by any means, Charles Brantley is playing the best football in a Spartan uniform, and the rest of the secondary has shown to be much more capable and competent than the secondary of years past. In a vacuum, Michigan’s secondary may be slightly better on paper especially factoring in Johnson, but in terms of passing attack vs secondary, Michigan State football has a clear advantage in this one.

In terms of special teams, Michigan kicker Dominic Zvada is 8-for-9 with a long of 55 on the season. Both Jonathan Kim and Zvada both have four made kicks of 50-plus so far this season, so in terms of the kicking game, Michigan State and Michigan are about even. The punting numbers are where we see the gaps in special teams. Ryan Eckley sits seventh nationally in punting average with 48 yards per punt, a net of 44.2 yards, good for 13th nationally. Michigan’s Tommy Dorman? He ranks 89th in punting average with 41.8 yards per punt and 133rd in net punting with 37 yards. If MSU forces a three-and-out on Michigan’s 25-yard-line, that gives the Spartans the ball at their own 38-yard-line. This poor punting has contributed to Michigan’s defense ranking 119th in starting field position. This game has every chance to be a rock fight if Michigan’s front-seven neutralizes the Spartan offense, and field position will become a huge factor. In this, the Spartans have the advantage.

Michigan State has a clear advantage in their coaching staff. Full stop. Jonathan Smith is a better head coach than Sherrone Moore. Brian Lindgren is a better offensive coordinator than Kirk Campbell. Joe Rossi is a better defensive coordinator than Wink Martindale.

From Game 1 to Game 7, which team has looked like it has improved every week? Which team has an identity on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball? Which team looks more competent? Which team is maximizing its output relative to its team talent? It’s Michigan State football. Michigan ranks 14th on the 247Sports team talent composite, yet they look disorganized and inconsistent. There are already questions surrounding Moore and his long-term prospects for the job in Ann Arbor. Matt Campbell posts have already been pulled out of the archives. When Michigan succeeds, it is because of its talent shining through in spite of the schematic make up. Michigan State has a better staff construction not only in year one, but long term as well.

This brings us to the game. To me, its incredibly simple. If Michigan State looks the same as it did against Iowa, it’ll cruise to a win. It is only if the Michigan front getting home that alternative outcomes enter the picture. Martindale will surely send numerous blitzes to put Chiles under pressure early, Smith and Lindgren will need to have answers.

Offensively, Michigan is not going throw anything towards MSU that it hasn’t seen before. Unless Donovan Edwards magically hits a home run house call or if Mullings runs through nine players, I find it difficult to believe this Michigan team will push the ball downfield on MSU. Michigan ranks 126th in eckel rate at 28.4%, 107^th in early downs epa of -0,092/play, and rank 109^th in offensive starting field position. They have a long way to go and they aren’t good at getting to where they want to be. Michigan State is 21st in defensive rushing success rate and 27th in epa/rush. Michigan State matches up will with Michigan’s strength.

If Michigan State finds success offensively early and can finish drives, there is no card for Michigan to play in order to come back quickly. If MSU finds itself down early, they have a much better opportunity to chase the game down with their explosive passing game. A two-score lead may all be Michigan State needs to ride this one out.

This would be an incredibly frustrating loss for Michigan State football if it were to drop this game, while not the betting favorite, this one is extremely gettable for the Spartans, and would all but guarantee a bowl berth with their remaining schedule. It would signal that there might be even more work to do than fans thought after the Iowa game.

A loss for Michigan, it’ll be reaping what is sowed. Spending the past three seasons cheating in games to win a national title that no one outside of Ann Arbor or Clio views as legitimate. Fans will look to throw the timing of Harbaugh leaving into the spotlight, even though it was known he was flirting with the NFL since 2021, and was a Michael Scott-level botching of his interview with Minnesota away from not even being around in the 2023 season at all. The Moore hire was thoughtless and lazy and done completely of hubris from the program and the administration. Michigan beats its chest over being a national brand and being “leaders and best”, but somehow could not go out and poach a real head coach? What was stopping them from going out and getting a quarterback in the spring if the room we’ve seen this fall looked like this then? There is no program better suited to faceplant time and time again after manufacturing the cringiest and most disingenuous “us against the world” campaign the season before. Sure, cling to the national title trophy you take so seriously. You’re not in that world anymore, and you won’t be anytime soon again.

It’s not over, it’ll never be over. Bring Paul home. Go Green.