Michigan State football: 3 storylines and a prediction vs. Western Michigan

Michigan State football opens the 2025 season on Friday against Western Michigan. Will the Spartans take care of business?

It’s the Friday before Labor Day weekend. You know what that means. It’s time for Michigan State football. We’re back, baby. Jonathan Smith opens his second season in East Lansing against the Western Michigan Broncos.

Here are three things to watch for on Friday, along with a wager and a prediction.

1. Michigan State’s offense

Optimism fills the air this time of year for every college football team. And Michigan State feels no different. In particular, the buzz surrounding this offense has only grown as the summer has progressed. We’re all anxious to see what quarterback Aidan Chiles looks like in season number two.

He’ll have two of his favorite targets back in sophomore receiver Nick Marsh and senior tight end Jack Velling.

But that’s where the similarities to the 2024 offense end.

The Spartans brought in four receivers from the transfer portal. Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee State) figures to operate as the number two behind Marsh. Chrishon McCary (Kent State) is a big play receiver that brings the speed that MSU lacked a year ago. Evan Boyd (Central Michigan), Rodney Bullard Jr. (Valdosta State), and 2024 holdover Alante Brown give MSU nice depth at the position.

Similarly, along the offensive line, the coaching staff feels like they have nine or 10 dependable options. That wasn’t the case a year ago, and MSU’s offense sputtered because of it. Stanton Ramil (left tackle) and Matt Gulbin (center) feel safe as starters. The rest is far from certain. And that might be a good thing. I’m assuming we’ll see all capable options on Friday as Michigan State football tries to find its best five. At the very least, this group feels much deeper and better prepared to battle the challenges of a long season.

The biggest unknown with this offense is at running back. Michigan State returns just 14 carries from its 2024 roster. Seven of those went to Brandon Tullis. The other seven went to Makhi Frazier. Those feel like your starters. But it’s anybody’s guess as to how those carries shake out. Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Sacramento State), and true freshman Jace Clarizio are also in the mix.

The theme with this offense is depth. MSU’s coaching staff has mentioned it as the biggest difference between this year’s team and last. That was evident late in the season, when a depleted Michigan State football roster finished 1-4 with some ugly results. I’m curious to see if there’s merit in those comments, or if it’s just coach speak. Because on paper, this offense has some juice. But it’s time to see it on the field.

2. Western Michigan’s quarterbacks

If you read that carefully, you noticed that it reads “quarterbacks”, as in plural. The Broncos are rolling into week one with the dreaded “OR” designation on the depth chart. Last year’s backup Broc Lowry and JUCO transfer Brady Jones are both expected to play on Friday.

At some programs, you could sell me on this being a positive. But forgive me for not believing this is a Tua Tagovailoa versus Jalen Hurts situation. In the MAC, if you have two quarterbacks, it usually means you are closer to having zero quarterbacks.

That’s important for a couple reasons. For starters, Western Michigan is going to have to score to keep pace in this game. MSU’s offense is expected to be improved. And this is a Western Michigan defense that lost a lot from a year ago. Aside from their safety duo, this is almost an entirely new unit.

Secondly, it’s important to keep that in mind when watching this Michigan State defense. I’ve been outspoken about my questions with the defensive personnel. And unless we’re wildly wrong with our preseason read on the Broncos, I’m not sure how much we’ll really learn on Friday.

The two quarterbacks for Western Michigan have combined to throw nine career passes at the FBS level. The Broncos rank 128th in the country in returning production. They’ll also be without one of their top playmakers, running back Cole Cabana. It could be a mess of an opening night for Lance Taylor’s squad.

3. Michigan State’s kicking

There’s an old saying in football: “Week 1 is the healthiest your team will be all season.”

That could not be less applicable to Michigan State’s kickers. It appears as if starter Tarik Ahmetbasic will be a true game-time decision. Reserve Martin Connington is definitively out.

That could leave redshirt senior Blake Sislo as Jonathan Smith’s only option. Normally, you’d feel OK about a redshirt senior stepping in to handle kicking duties in an emergency. But the problem with Sislo is that we – quite literally – have no game experience to go off. Amazingly, Sislo spent three seasons at Davenport University without playing at all. No kickoffs, punts, extra points, or field goals. Nada. Zilch.

How you’re able to go from Division II Davenport to the Big Ten without a single kicking attempt is an article for another day. In the short term, though, this could be a problem for the Spartans. Having a kicker that you don’t trust alters the way that you manage and coach a game.

Do the Spartans abandon field goals altogether and go for it on fourth downs? Does Jonathan Smith try to give Sislo some confidence by attempting another kick if the first one misses? Can Sislo even be counted on to hit extra points? These are all questions that need answers. And for Western Michigan, any chance at pulling the upset likely relies on MSU missing kicks or being highly inefficient on fourth downs.

Prediction

Michigan State football was a 17.5-point favorite for most of the summer. The Spartans have taken some money this week and are now as high as 21-point favorites. The total for this game is 49.5.

It’s always tough to know what to expect in Week 1. But from everything I’ve heard and read about this Western Michigan team, I tend to think this one could get ugly. The Broncos win total has dipped to 4.5. They’re also 16-1 to win the MAC. And over the years, even at their worst, we’ve seen Michigan State handle MAC opponents with relative ease in the opener.

But 21 is a big number for a team that’s breaking in a lot of new pieces on offense. The kicking uncertainty shouldn’t be ignored. And with Boston College on deck, I could see Jonathan Smith parking the bus in the second half.

The old saying “it’s not who you play, it’s how you play” applies here. I’m curious to see what the execution looks like. I’m anxious to get a look at the newcomers. And most of all, I’m just excited to have Spartan football back in our lives.

The wager I like in this game is a bit unorthodox. I’d play Michigan State -6.5 in the first quarter. Smith is notoriously good at scripting the beginning of games. And I’m certain there is nothing more important to this coaching staff than getting in the end zone early. Michigan State should be amped up behind the home crowd, and I’d expect the offensive staff to lean into their best 8-10 plays early on.

When you throw in the quarterback uncertainty for Western Michigan, and all the turnover on their roster, I’d be surprised if it doesn’t take them some time to find their footing.

This should be a fun night at Spartan Stadium. MSU figures to have their way with a undermanned opponent. The Broncos are huge underdogs for a reason. MSU starts fast, and hits cruise control midway through the third quarter.

Final score: Michigan State 35, Western Michigan 14