Michigan State football: Will there be Homecoming hope vs. Iowa?

Jonathan Smith is halfway through his first season as the head coach of Michigan State football. The Spartans currently are .500, and are in the middle of their toughest four-game stretch of their schedule. I do not thing there has been any true surprises in terms of result. They’ve won their “must wins” on the front end in beating FAU & Prairie View A&M, split their toss-ups against Maryland and Boston College, but unfortunately lost convincingly to Ohio State and Oregon.

I do believe the worst is over for MSU in terms of being able to compete against the team across from you. The issue moving forward is that every game outside of Purdue will be a dogfight, and even the Boilermakers look like they have something after scoring 40+ in an overtime loss to an above average Illinois team.

The goal, as always, is getting to six wins. The Spartans will look to get to win number four this weekend.

IOWA – 7:30 p.m. (Homecoming)

Earlier in the week, I mentioned on the LockedOn Spartans podcast that I think the next two games against Iowa and Michigan are gettable. Much more gettable than what we had thought during the preseason.

This is an Iowa team that has shown that it is still very much, Iowa.

Offensively, they rely heavily on Kaleb Johnson, the nation’s second-leading rusher behind Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty with 937 yards, averaging 7.9 yards per carry. Johnson’s rushing attack has led to Iowa ranking 14th in the nation in EPA/rush with 0.09, and ranking 31st nationally with a rush success rate of 45.5%. This is yet another big test for the front seven of a Spartans defense after allowing 6.69 yards per carry and 0.12 EPA/rush combined in games against Ohio State and Oregon.

Michigan State still ranks 32nd and 54th nationally in EPA/rush and rush success rate defensively, but Johnson presents the biggest obstacle to winning this contest. Jordan Hall’s absence from the Oregon game was felt immensely. He’ll need to have a big game if the Spartans want to limit Johnson’s impact on the game.

The reprieve that Joe Rossi’s defense has is that this Iowa team does not posses a Dillon Gabriel, Jeremiah Smith, Tez Johnson, Emeka Egbuka, or Terrance Ferguson. Iowa only has three receivers with 100-plus receiving yards halfway through 2024, one of which being their tight end Luke Lachey.

Familiar foe Cade McNamara posts a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio, with 6.5 yds average depth of target (ADOT), and the conference worst QBR rating of 36.8, rating 114th nationally. These numbers help explain why the Hawkeye’s rank 119th in EPA/dropback (-.131) and 112th in dropback success rate (36.2%). While the numbers show an average Spartan pass defense (65th in EPA/dropback, 56th in dropback success rate), matchups against two of the best passing attacks in back to back weeks skew where this unit is overall. Even still, this is a matchup Michigan State can exploit, so long as they’re finding ways to limit Johnson’s success in the ground game.

Defensively, you can get away with playing the run aggressively, as there has been no sign that this Hawkeye offense can exploit teams through the air.

As I said, Iowa is still Iowa. Phil Parker has yet another competent and capable defense, albeit one that has not been as strong in years past. This Iowa defense still ranks in the top 25 in EPA/rush & EPA/dropback, however they’re only ranking 51st in dropback success rate at 39.6% and 83rd in rush success rate at 43.9%. It is disheartening to see that the weakest part of this Iowa defense is on the ground, as I have no faith in Michigan State football being able to establish any sort of rhythm unless they have made drastic changes during the bye week.

This Iowa team predicates itself on limiting explosive plays and making teams go 10-15 plays down the field to go score. Michigan State offensively has not shown nearly enough consistency to make me believe this is something that they can do. MSU ranks 101st in rush success rate and 81st in dropback success rate (38.8% / 39.6%). Being this inept at moving the ball down the field on a down to down basis limits the offensive path to success for Michigan State. They will need to rely on explosive plays to push the ball down field, something that Iowa has historically been great at limiting.

If Michigan State *can* find themselves piecing together a successful drive, they’re in luck. Iowa’s defense ranks 124th in pts/eckel with 4.57. The two problems are that Michigan State football ranks 131st in pts/eckel with 1.88 and Iowa’s defense ranks third in eckel rate at 20.4%. The game itself is setting itself up to be a field position battle that won’t be easy on the eyes. Ryan Eckley and Jonathan Kim may play significant roles in this game in flipping the field. Eckley is sitting at sixth nationally in punting average and net punts. Despite this, Eckley only has five of his 23 punts downed inside the 20, illustrating the offensive struggles of moving the ball downfield. Jonathan Kim is one of five kickers who have not missed a field goal attempt this year (min nine attempts). Kim has four kicks from 40-plus already, and it was against the Hawkeyes that Kim nailed a 58-yarder in 2023 to keep the Spartans in the game.

Expect 96 and 97 to play huge roles in this game for Michigan State football if it plans to come out victorious.

Speaking of results, in terms of most likely to most unlikely, I would have to put this at Iowa winning tight, Michigan State winning tight, a Hawkeye blowout, and a Spartan blowout. Iowa is much more one-dimensional than the likes of Ohio State and Oregon, allowing the defense to key in on the run game to limit Johnson’s explosiveness. If MSU is able to limit the run, Iowa may have to settle for more three than sevens, opening the door for a player for Jonathan Kim to be a much larger factor in game. Possibly for a game winning field goal? We will know early on in each half if Iowa is able to find success in the run game, and once they do, I’m not sure if that’s a genie you can put back into the bottle.

I do think this game is up for the taking if Michigan State football can show a pulse on offense. Either because of optimism or insanity, I think the Spartans end Saturday with their fourth win of the season, sending a message to the conference that Jonathan Smith is building something of substance.

However, do not be surprised if the Hawkeyes run out of East Lansing on the shoulders of Kaleb Johnson.

Ps. since its Iowa – enjoy.