3 key factors and a prediction for Michigan State vs NDSU

For the 28th consecutive season, Spartan fans will get to watch their team play an NCAA Tournament game. This year’s Michigan State vs NDSU first-round game will tip off on Thursday evening at 4:05 p.m. ET.

The Summit League champion Bison are the 14-seed in the East Region. As 16.5-point underdogs, the Bison will need a flawless effort to beat Michigan State. But if they are going to do so, here are some key areas that will likely swing things in their favor.

1. The glass

You don’t have to beat Michigan State on the boards to beat them. But you have to keep pace with them. Fortunately for North Dakota State, the metrics indicate that they can. They own the 17th-best defensive rebounding percentage in college basketball, a remarkable figure for a mid-major.

It’s even more impressive when you consider the fact that the Bison are one of the smallest teams in the country. They have a pair of centers in 6-foot-9 Treyson Anderson and 6-foot-10 Joah Feddersen. But they rarely play together. And everyone else is 6-foot-6 or smaller.

North Dakota State packs their defense into the paint, daring opponents to shoot over them. Their proximity to the basket allows them to grab misses. And it’s been an effective strategy because opponents are only shooting 33.5% from three against them.

Michigan State is not a great shooting team. So, this strategy could work. In fact, it may work as long as the Bison are able to grab MSU’s misses.

But if they can’t, then this all falls apart. On the other end of the court, the Bison are a decent offensive rebounding team as well. The problem is that Michigan State is the best defensive rebounding team in America. Whatever contributions they’re used to getting from second chances are going to be greatly diminished.

This is the most important factor in this game. If North Dakota State can keep MSU off the offensive glass, they could make this interesting if the Spartans have an off-shooting day. It’s also critical that they grab some offensive rebounds to keep Jeremy Fears and Co. out of transition.

2. Three-point shooting

That last point is key to this factor as well. Because the Bison are a good shooting team. As a team, they’re shooting almost 36% on the season. Individually, NDSU has five players that shoot at least 37% from three.

Nearly 36% of the Bison’s points come from beyond the arc. Their size limitations don’t allow them to score much in the paint. Against MSU, that size disadvantage will be exacerbated. So, it feels safe to say that the Bison are going to have to knock down threes to win this game.

If they’re cold, then this could get out of hand. MSU should be able to flex their muscles on the glass. And missed three pointers usually create long rebounds, which the Spartans are excellent at using to start their transition game.

As mentioned in the first point, Michigan State needs to hit some threes in this game as well. The data says that NDSU is going to let them shoot. And the Spartans could find life challenging on the glass. Believe it or not, NDSU’s defensive rebounding percentage would rank second in the Big Ten.

And at a certain point, it becomes a math equation. If one team is hitting threes, and the other is not, well, three points will always be worth more than two. There’s a formula here for an upset. The Bison have the shooters to catch fire. And MSU could start to squeeze the ball and settle for jump shots down the stretch. And that’s exactly what the Bison want them to do because of point number three.

3. The Interior

This is typically the biggest mismatch in these games between high and mid-major teams. This will be no exception in Thursday’s Michigan State vs NDSU game. Michigan State should dominate on the interior. North Dakota State’s two-point defense ranks 221st in America.

They want to space the floor with four guards and one center. And while that could force Michigan State to play Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper separately, the Spartans have other options. Cam Ward, Coen Carr, and Jordan Scott are all lengthy defenders that can defend multiple options for the Bison.

And unlike North Dakota State, Michigan State is going to try and play through the post with their big men. That’s going to force Feddersen and Anderson to defend without fouling. Because behind those two, there is nobody else for the Bison.

It’s a different style that North Dakota State hasn’t seen a lot of. The Summit League is filled with finesse offensive styles, with rosters constructed similarly to the Bison. Keep in mind, NDSU did not face a top 100 KenPom team all season. Nor did they play a power conference team. We’ll see if there is any adjustment period to MSU’s size, tenacity, and athleticism.

Prediction

With these teams separated by nearly 100 spots on KenPom, it’s no surprise that Michigan State is a big favorite — 16.5 is a big number on a neutral court where all of the pressure is on Michigan State.

Dave Richman is a veteran coach, making his fourth appearance in the NCAA Tournament with North Dakota State. He’s still looking for his first win in the round of 64. This is a veteran team that doesn’t rely on any freshman, and just one sophomore.

Maybe my fandom is blinding me, but I don’t see the type of rocking chair victory that you hope for in the round of 64 as a 3-seed. This North Dakota State team is built similarly to the Spartans. And they matchup well in some of the areas that are essential.

But… let’s take a step back for a second. North Dakota State doesn’t have any advantages in this game. Michigan State is a better version of them. So, if the Spartans are going to be better at the things that helped the Bison get here, where does that leave them?

Outside of their troubles with Rutgers, Michigan State has taken care of business against this level of competition. And since dropping that First Four game to UCLA in 2021, Tom Izzo is 4-0 in the round of 64.

But 16.5 is too large for me to endorse. Especially with the Bison’s ability to get hot from three. MSU could have this in the bag from the tip, only to be outscored 12-2 in the final three minutes to win by 15.

Instead, I’ll look to bet Michigan State live at a discount. We’ve seen them start slow on several occasions this year. And if NDSU is hitting shots early on, we might be able to snag MSU under double digits. Michigan State advances. And that’s all that matters.

Prediction: Michigan State 81, North Dakota State 66