Previewing the massive showdown between Duke and Michigan State basketball

Michigan State basketball will host No. 4 Duke on Saturday afternoon, and here’s everything you need to know about the showdown.

Duke vs. Michigan State basketball. “The Dukies” vs. “Sparty”.

No. 4 vs. No. 7; 9-0 vs 8-0. Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

This is one of those that just feels different. Let’s take a deep dive into the 2025-26 Duke men’s basketball team. Stay tuned until the end for analysis and a game prediction.

Duke season overview

Like Michigan State, Duke already has three ranked wins on the young season. They opened their season with a power-conference opponent in Texas, followed by three consecutive thrashings of mid-major opponents. Of course, their next matchup came in the annual Champions Classic, where they defeated No. 24 Kansas 78-66 mere hours after MSU’s huge win on the same floor.

From there, the Blue Devils had two additional mid-major tune ups before beginning a stretch against three ranked opponents in a row. Said stretch began on Thanksgiving Day in Chicago, where Duke defeated a common opponent of the Spartans, No. 22 Arkansas, 80-71.

Most recently, Duke returned home to Cameron Indoor, where they used a late 3-pointer to eke out a 67-66 over the defending national champion, 15th-ranked Florida Gators.

Duke coach and stats

Duke is led by fourth-year head coach, Jon Scheyer. Entering Saturday, Scheyer has led the Blue Devils to an impressive 98-22 career record. He’s coming off his best season as coach, in which Duke won the ACC title, and made the Final Four with Cooper Flagg and Co.

Scheyer is 1-0 vs Tom Izzo, a victory that came in the 2023 Champions Classic.

Although they hold the No. 4 position in the AP Poll, the metrics like Duke a bit more. KenPom has Duke at No. 3 and Torvik has them No. 2.

Duke does basically everything well. Here’s how they rank on Torvik out of 365 D-I teams:

• Offense/Defense efficiency — 10/4
• O/D effective FG% — 14/1
• O/D rebound% — 35/96
• O/D 2pt% — 3/6
• O/D 3pt% — 84/13

For more traditional stats, Duke shoots 51.2% from the field, 36 percent from three, and 71.6% from the free throw line. They only turn the ball over an average of 10.4 times per game.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that they play a very average pace (200th).

Roster breakdown

For Duke, it starts with their leader in points. And rebounds. And assists. Oh yeah, and steals, too. Cameron Boozer. The former five-star recruit has not disappointed. According to 247Sports, he was the No. 3 recruit in the 2025 class.

Since getting to Duke, the 6-foot-9, 215-pound forward has somehow outdone that ranking. Boozer is averaging 23.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. He also makes his presence felt on defense with 2.7 stocks (steals + blocks) per night. Boozer has already reached the 35-point mark on two separate occasions. He did so in a Nov. 14 thumping of Indiana State, and more recently on Thanksgiving to lift Blue Devils over Arkansas. He is an incredible talent. Most mock drafts have him projected to go either first or second overall in next year’s NBA draft. Everything Duke does will run through him.

Beyond Boozer, the player that has played the second most minutes is Isaiah Evans. A five-star in the class of 2024, Evans is a fluid athlete that makes his presence felt on both ends of the floor. At 6-foot-6, 180-pounds, he plays a guard/forward hybrid. He has nearly doubled his scoring output from his freshman season, averaging 12.6 points per game.

Manning the center position for Duke is Patrick Ngongba II. At 6-foot-11, 250-pounds, Ngongba is a physical presence down low. Patrick has a well-rounded game, contributing 12.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per night. Most importantly though, Ngongba is a serious rim protector, averaging 1.6 blocks per game.

At the point, Duke has Caleb Foster. The 6-foot-5 junior dictates the game offensively for the Blue Devils. He scores 8.9 per game, adding around three rebounds and three assists. He does not shoot with much volume, but has shot the 3-ball to a 44.8% clip this season.

Those are the four spots that are consistent with Duke. They play a nine-man rotation, but the other four do not necessarily fill up the stat sheet. Perhaps the most notable is Syracuse transfer, Maliq Brown. A physical 6-foot-8 power forward contributed six points, six rebounds, and three stocks vs. Florida. The other four consisted of Nikolas Khamenia, Dame Sarr, Darren Harris, and Cayden Boozer (brother of Cam). Those four combined to play 48 minutes against Florida, only attempting a grand total of four field goals combined.

Michigan State vs. Duke matchups

This will be a fun one. I think one of the most intriguing matchups to watch will be the half-court Michigan State basketball offense against the stout Duke defense. Everybody knows that MSU can score when they run, but in the half-court it can get dicey. Michigan State will take its 118th ranked effective field goal percentage (Torvik), up against the No. 1-ranked defense in the same stat.

Look for the Spartans to almost feel out Duke, allowing Izzo to make adjustments as he sees fit.

It will be interesting to see how Izzo wants to attack Boozer. Over the years, we’ve seen him adopt the strategy of “let him get his, shut down everyone else”. Of course the hope is that you can stifle Boozer, but it could be a better plan of attack to shutdown Ngongba, Evans, etc. The rotations will also be notable. Carson Cooper is likely the primary defender on Boozer, but it will be interesting to see how Jaxon Kohler fares. One player to watch in that department will be Cam Ward. If healthy, Ward brings an unmatchable energy to the floor. With similar size, the country could see two freshmen battling it out Saturday afternoon.

The best matchup for Michigan State, probably in every game, is at point guard. Jeremy Fears vs. Caleb Foster. Fears will look to dictate the game as he always does. He’ll be the key in this game for MSU. If he can get somewhere near a double-double, and play good defense, Michigan State has a great shot. Knowing Jeremy, he’ll be as excited as anyone to compete with Duke. Surely he will be attempting to get in the heads of the Blue Devils the second the ball is tipped.

Prediction

When picking this game, it is important to note that this is truly Duke’s first road test. Now, they have already played an official road game, but it was at Army. No offense to the prestigious university at West Point, but I do not think their environment is anywhere near comparable to the Breslin Center.

I think this game will live up to its billing. I believe it will be close all throughout, but there are a few factors that lead me to side with Michigan State basketball. For one, I think Fears will command the game in the second half. Foster is a good player, but he has had defensive concerns in the past. I look for Fears to get downhill a bit more frequently than he has lately, and to finish those drives at the rim. Second, I turn to the Izzone. Life should be hell for Duke every time they have the ball, in an effort to disrupt their elite offense. Third, I’m going with the experience. I understand Scheyer is 1-0 vs. Izzo, but that 2023 MSU roster was not as “Izzo-like” as this year’s. That mark will change.

Give me Michigan State to win in a thrilling 72-67 victory in front of the home crowd. I think Kur Teng and Trey Fort will combine for 15-plus points and be an instrumental part of the winning effort.

If you are going to the game, earplugs are advised for the first Fears-to-Coen Carr alley-oop.

Go Green.