What does Michigan State basketball need to do to make NCAA tournament?

What does Michigan State basketball need to do in the final few weeks of the season to make the NCAA Tournament?

Michigan State basketball was in a great position to make the NCAA Tournament a week ago, that is until it suffered back-to-back brutal losses at home to Iowa and Ohio State. The Spartans seemed like a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but now that feels up in the air.

So what does Michigan State need to do to make the tournament?

Where do the Spartans stand today?

As of Feb. 28, Michigan State is still comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field. According to Bracket Matrix which compiles data from over 100 NCAA tournament experts, the Spartans are on average an 8.68 seed. They also make the tournament field in 114 out of 115 brackets analyzed.

This is a small step down from where MSU was a week and a half ago. On Feb. 16, the Spartans were on average an 8.31 seed according to these same experts. So Michigan State’s NCAA tournament projection really didn’t change much after their two most recent losses.

This by no means guarantees MSU will be in the tournament field on Selection Sunday in three weeks. So what must Michigan State do to guarantee they’re in the tournament field when the official bracket is released.

Here’s how MSU can make the NCAA tournament

• Win the Big Ten Tournament

I see three ways Michigan State can make the NCAA Tournament. The first and most obvious is by winning the Big Ten Tournament. Every conferences tournament winner automatically makes the NCAA tourney, so this would guarantee Michigan State makes the Big Dance.

I, however, don’t think any of us want to rely on winning the Big Ten Tournament to get in, so what else can Michigan State do?

• Beat Purdue

A win in Michigan State’s next game would put it in the NCAA Tournament field no matter what. The Spartans take on Purdue Saturday who is No. 1 in the Big Ten and No. 2 in the country. A road win against Purdue is about as good as wins come in the country this year. So if MSU wins this game, it will be in the Big Dance.

I think Michigan State basketball would make the NCAA Tournament even if they went on to lose the rest of its games. A loss to Northwestern, Indiana, and whoever it plays in the Big Ten Tournament still wouldn’t move them out of the NCAA Tournament field. So a win against Purdue puts MSU in the Big Dance regardless of how the rest of the season shakes out.

• Win two more games

If Michigan State fails to beat Purdue or win the Big Ten Tournament, that leaves them with this last option. Michigan State would need two more wins in my opinion to make the NCAA Tournament. This could be any combination of regular season or Big Ten Tournament games, but as long as they get two wins, they’ll be in.

This is probably the most likely scenario to see MSU earn its 26th straight NCAA Tournament appearance. I wouldn’t bet on Michigan State winning the Big Ten Tournament or beating Purdue, so it’ll need two more wins to make the Big Dance. One win could be good enough, but two would put the Spartans in without a doubt.

I personally hope these wins come against Northwestern and Indiana to close out the regular season so there’s no pressure in the Big Ten Tournament. Time will tell and there’s no shortage of question marks surrounding this team at the moment. But Tom Izzo always finds a way to play have MSU play their best basketball this time of year, so I have faith he’ll be able to that once again.