Michigan State basketball: 3 keys and a prediction vs. North Carolina

Michigan State basketball will look to string another big performance together on Saturday against North Carolina to head to the Sweet 16.

Michigan State basketball advanced past Mississippi State on Thursday to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The reward? A date with North Carolina in Charlotte. The Spartans are hoping to get back to the Sweet 16 for the second time in as many seasons.

Let’s get to know the Tar Heels a little better and identify three keys to the game. From there, we’ll review the betting line and get to a prediction.

1. Rebounding

The Spartans placed a heavy emphasis on rebounding in their first matchup against Mississippi State. Fortunately, they won’t have to adjust that thought process at all heading into Saturday. North Carolina is an outstanding rebounding team in every aspect. They led the ACC in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

Fifth-year Senior Armando Bacot is the driving force for the Tarheels on the glass. The program’s all-time leader in career rebounds is also in a tie for second all-time in career points. The 6-foot-11 forward will likely have his number retired at the Dean Smith Center one day. For Michigan State, there’s no hope in taking Bacot out of this game. They just have to make sure he doesn’t dominate it.

Bacot isn’t an offensively dominant player like Zach Edey or Hunter Dickinson. But he’s so good on the offensive glass. He draws a lot of fouls and shoots free throws at 78 percent.

If Bacot isn’t collecting misses, Harrison Ingram usually is. The 6-foot-7 transfer from Stanford was a top-5 rebounder in the ACC with almost nine per game. His versatility could present some significant challenges for Michigan State. He’s a true NBA-type wing that can play power forward or small forward. His willingness to get after it on the glass makes him even tougher to handle.

For most of this season, strong rebounding teams have given Michigan State basketball real problems. However, they’ve been a bit better lately. MSU has won the rebounding battle in each of its past three games.

In particular, Mady Sissoko has been extremely active during that stretch. He pulled down seven rebounds in nine minutes against Purdue and nine more rebounds in 17 minutes against Mississippi State. They’ll need that same type of energy on Saturday to try and steal some away from Bacot.

As for Ingram, the Spartans are going to have to rely heavily on Malik Hall. He’s really the only player on MSU’s roster that can match Ingram’s size and athleticism. Hall will have to be aware of that fact and do whatever he can to stay out of foul trouble. His presence on Ingram defensively and on the boards is a massive factor in this game.

2. RJ Davis vs. Tyson Walker

It’s a little disrespectful that I’ve gone this long in a preview of North Carolina without mentioning RJ Davis. The ACC Player of the Year and consensus first-team All-American is the straw that stirs the drink for Hubert Davis.

Davis can do it all. He can pass. He can rebound. He can turn you over. And he can score. The most terrifying part of his game is his ability to heat up from three. Against Miami earlier this year, Davis hit seven threes on his way to scoring 42 points. He’s a shot taker and a shot maker, shooting 41 percent from three on almost 270 attempts. While he hasn’t been as effective in the paint, he’ll kill you at the free throw line, shooting 86 percent in his career on 479 attempts.

On the other side, Michigan State has Tyson Walker. And while Walker may not carry the same accolades as Davis, he’s just as intimidating of a player. After battling a groin injury for most of the season, Walker has settled into a nice groove over the past few weeks. He’s scored at least 15 points in his last five games while shooting 41 percent from three. Most of all, he seems to be moving as well as he has all season.

For Tom Izzo, this matchup is somewhat similar to what they experienced in round one with Josh Hubbard. While Davis is a better all-around player with a better supporting cast, he requires the same amount of attention defensively. Davis isn’t a big player, so the length of Jaden Akins, and AJ Hoggard could bother him.

I’m curious to see who North Carolina puts on Walker. It’s a lot to ask Davis to carry them offensively while also guarding Michigan State’s best player. His running mate in the backcourt, Elliot Cadeau, is a true freshman. Will Hubert Davis really trust a young player on a fifth-year senior in the NCAA Tournament?

Both teams are balanced enough to survive a substandard night from their best player. In fact, the numbers suggest that both teams are at their best when they aren’t banking on big nights from their lead guards. In North Carolina’s seven losses this year, Davis has averaged 25 points per game compared to 20.5 in their wins. For Walker, he’s scored at least 25 points four times this season. Michigan State is 1-3 in those games.

Balanced, team-oriented outings are where both teams thrive. They need their best players to pace them, not drag them. Keep an eye on those totals as this game wears on.

3. North Carolina’s role players

This is the biggest question with North Carolina in this game and their potential to advance beyond the Sweet 16 in this tournament. At this point, you know what you’re getting from Davis and Bacot. You can usually pencil in Davis for 20+ points and Bacot for a double-double.

But what about the rest of the Tar Heels?

 Cadeau is a true freshman point guard who has struggled with turnovers. He’s also a non-factor shooting the ball at just 18 percent on the year from three.

Ingram (Stanford), Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame), and Jae’Lyn Withers (Louisville) are all transfers in their first year at North Carolina. Notice a trend there? Not exactly perennial NCAA Tournament teams.

Jalen Washington and Seth Trimble are both true sophomores who come off the bench and contribute irregularly.

North Carolina is the sixth-most experienced team in America. But between those six guys, there’s a lot of inexperience related to the NCAA Tournament because North Carolina didn’t make it a season ago. How will the role players respond in what is their first true elimination game together in the round of 32?

Per KenPom, the Tar Heels rank 332nd in bench minutes this year. Sure, it’s hard to take stars like Bacot and Davis off the floor. At the same time, it’s evidence that Hubert Davis doesn’t want to go deep into his bench. If Carolina’s role players have a limited impact, and Michigan State can slow down either Davis or Bacot, they’ll have a tremendous shot to win this game.

Prediction

To the surprise of many, Michigan State basketball is only a 3.5-point underdog. It’s worth mentioning that since 1985, seven 1-seeds have been favored by four points or fewer in the round of 32. Five of those teams lost outright.

So, history suggests that this is a tricky spot for North Carolina. When you look at the records, the line makes no sense. But analytically, these teams are a lot closer than the eye test would indicate. Michigan State is up to 16th in KenPom’s efficiency ratings after Thursday. North Carolina is ninth.

While prepping for this preview, I kept looking for North Carolina’s calling card. For a No. 1 seed, you typically see something that jumps off the page that makes the team elite. For Purdue, it’s Zach Edey and three-point shooting. With Houston, it’s defense. For Connecticut, it’s about four different things.

For UNC? It’s rebounding… I guess? They are a good defensive team at the rim, but not an elite shot-blocking group. They defend the three well despite giving up a good amount of attempts. They take care of the ball and are a good, not great, shooting team. But make no mistake, they do not profile as favorably as your typical 1-seed.

Michigan State basketball can win this game with a spirited effort on the boards and a suffocating defense against Davis. Their performance against Hubbard in round one suggests they can at least slow him down. Turnovers were an issue for MSU on Thursday but North Carolina doesn’t force many on their own. The Spartans are going to get looks from three. It’s up to Akins and Walker to knock them down again.

Lastly, the Spartans have Tom Izzo. He’s been notoriously awesome in this tournament in the second game of the weekend. I get it. Hubert Davis took UNC to the title game in year one. But if there’s a coaching advantage in this game, it favors Michigan State.

At the end of the day though, I can’t get there with this group of Spartans. This is essentially a home game for North Carolina. The Spartans aren’t going to run away from the Tar Heels. They’ll have to win a close game. They haven’t proven to me they can do that against a big-time opponent. I have no doubt Michigan State will compete. This should be a tight game down to the wire. But one last time, this team will leave us wondering “what could have been”.

Final score: North Carolina 73, Michigan State 71