Michigan State basketball: Vegas sets interesting line vs. North Carolina

After seeing what the line for Saturday’s game is, it’s obvious that Vegas has a lot of faith in Michigan State basketball.

Michigan State basketball is preparing to take on 1-seed North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Vegas has set its line for this game, and the Spartans opened up as a 3.5-point underdog against the Tar Heels.

Obviously nobody on the team will care about this, but many of you at home likely will.

This may not seem like much to you, but when you dive into the history of the 1-seeds in the second round it’s shocking.

No. 8/9 seeds’ record in the second round

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 1-seeds in the second round of the tournament have been favored by four or fewer points only seven teams. The Spartans game against UNC will mark the eighth time this has happened.

In those seven previous games, the 8/9 seed has won the game outright five times. This could mean that Michigan State has a great chance to pull off the upset.

(1) UNC is a 3.5 point favorite over (9) Michigan State tomorrow in the round of 32.

Note:

Since the F64 in 1985, only seven #1 Seeds have been favored by 4 or less.

5 of the 7 lost the game outright.

— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) March 22, 2024

Why does this trend occur though? When a 1-seed is favored by this small of an amount it tells us two things. It tells us the 1-seed isn’t as strong as a normal 1-seed is, and the 8/9 seed is much better than their seed suggests. This is the case in this matchup.

Out of the four 1-seeds this year, the Tar Heels are by far the worst. Many thought they didn’t deserve to be a 1-seed. Then you look at Michigan State which underachieved this year, but was still a preseason top-five team. That tells you all you need to know about the potential that this team has if it puts it all together. This creates the perfect storm for a 1-seed to be a small favorite in a game when they typically are heavy favorites.

The Spartans game on Saturday is also the smallest point spread as well. This is surprising considering there are many matchups on Saturday that feature teams much closer in their seeds.

No. 1 seed North Carolina is favored by just 3.5 points over No. 9 Michigan State.

It’s the smallest point spread of Saturday’s 2nd Round. pic.twitter.com/z40rIrkzVL

— Ryan Field (@RyanFieldABC) March 22, 2024

Will the same trend continue and see Michigan State pull off the upset against North Carolina? Or will the Tar Heels flex their muscles and handle their business? We’ll find out soon enough, but I don’t plan on betting against this team and Tom Izzo.