Michigan State basketball: Game preview, prediction vs. Indiana

Sometimes, the stars align perfectly. On Tuesday night, Tom Izzo will hope to break Bob Knight’s Big Ten victories record against the Indiana Hoosiers. Michigan State basketball is riding high after an epic comeback over the weekend against Oregon.

The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are in a free fall.

Let’s learn more about two teams heading in the opposite direction before we get to a game prediction.

Scouting Indiana

I’m old enough to remember when the Indiana Hoosiers carried a presence in college basketball. What’s happened to them over the past two seasons is just sad. The boosters went all-in on trying to build a winner this season, distributing more in NIL funds than any other team in the Big Ten. The return on that investment has been extremely underwhelming.

At 14-10, Indiana already has their sights set on next season. Last week, it was announced that head coach Mike Woodson would not return. The Hoosiers have lost seven of eight games, and five in a row overall.

The problems for Indiana have been plentiful. They can’t shoot. Twos, threes, free throws, it doesn’t matter. They aren’t generating turnovers on defense. Nor are they taking care of the ball themselves. They haven’t defended the rim well, and their 45.9% assist rate on allowed baskets is the second-worst in the Big Ten.

But you don’t have to dig into the analytics too far to see that this team has major issues. Look at some of these results:

• 29-point loss to Louisville
• 17-point loss to Nebraska
• 25-point losses to Iowa and Illinois

Over the course of a five-month season, blowouts are going to happen. But those results, combined with Indiana’s inability to win a close game, are unacceptable from a roster with this much talent.

The Hoosiers brought back a strong core from last year’s team led by Mackenzie Mgbako, Trey Galloway, and Malik Reneau. They went to the portal to add Myles Rice from Washington State, Oumar Ballo from Arizona, and Luke Goode from Illinois. Those six players were the main reason Indiana was picked to finish second in the Big Ten in the preseason media poll.

It hasn’t worked out. Indiana has never risen above 38th in KenPom, and they have just one victory against a team ranked in the top 50 all season.

Despite all of that, this is still a talented team that, theoretically, could put it all together at any moment. Indiana’s advantage against most teams is on the interior. Forward Malik Reneau missed some time this year with an injury. But when he’s healthy, he’s Indiana’s most efficient and effective scorer. Oumar Ballo is a massive dude at 7-foot-0, 260 pounds, who can dominate games with his rebounding. And then there’s Mgbako. At 6-foot-9, he’s a threat to score inside and out. NBA scouts project him as a second-round pick.

But the Hoosiers’ undoing this year has come in the backcourt. They have one true point guard on the roster in Myles Rice. He’s been good about taking care of the ball, but full-time point guard responsibilities have taken away from his scoring. When he’s out, Trey Galloway plays out of position and does his best to fill in. But even when he plays in his regular position, he’s a limited offensive player. The aforementioned Goode can shoot but doesn’t provide much else.

The one thing that Indiana does well is rebound. They will be able to hang around in this game if, and only if, they control the glass.

Michigan State basketball update

Michigan State basketball is coming off the most impressive 20 minutes of basketball that the Breslin Center has seen in some time. Down 14 at halftime against Oregon, MSU outscored the Ducks by 26 in the second half to win by 12.

Jase Richardson’s dazzling 29-point performance came at the perfect time, as the Spartans were without starting point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. due to an illness.

Right now, that might be Michigan State’s biggest concern in this game. That same illness kept Xavier Booker out on Saturday. Jaden Akins battled through it, shutting down Jackson Shelstad in the second half. But Tom Izzo noted after the game that his senior guard was severely impacted as well.

It’s only been three days since the Oregon game. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not that virus has completed its run through MSU’s locker room. If it hasn’t, who is available? Has anyone who had it impacted from a conditioning or rest standpoint? We likely won’t know until moments before tipoff.

But assuming everyone is healthy, this is a matchup that should have Michigan State basketball salivating. They can overmatch Indiana on the glass. Their interior defense should bother Reneau, Ballo, and Mgbako. And if the Spartans can get in transition, they should be able to take advantage of a soft Indiana defense.

Getting out to a comfortable lead would be in Michigan State’s best interest for two reasons. First, this is their last game against a team outside the KenPom top 20 until March 6. There’s no need to mess around on their home floor with a team like Indiana.

But more importantly, an easy final few minutes would allow their head coach to soak in what should be a very emotional moment on Tuesday night. Tom Izzo will never make things about himself. But for an accomplishment this significant, he deserves the time to appreciate it.

Prediction

Michigan State opened as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5. The line movement throughout the day on Tuesday should indicate the health of the Spartans. Within gambling circles, somebody always knows.

At first glance, that line is priced as if the Spartans are 100% healthy. It’s right in line with the KenPom projection of 11.

I’ll keep this analysis short. Even though it’s a big number, I’m laying the lumber.

That second half against Oregon felt like this team regaining confidence that was lost over the previous five halves. The added incentive of helping Izzo break a record in front of the home crowd won’t allow Michigan State basketball to look past Indiana.

But to be totally honest, this is a direct fade of Indiana. The Hoosiers have hung tough over the past few weeks, competing closely with NCAA Tournament teams like Purdue, Michigan, and Maryland. And in their first game since the Mike Woodson news, I figured they’d play hard at home against Michigan. They did, but lost.

Now, you’re on the road, against a superior team that’s confident and motivated. It’s been about a month since the last Indiana stinker. I think this is a spot where they are due for another. Michigan State can take away Indiana’s rebounding advantage. They get into transition with the return of Jeremy Fears. And they completely take away Indiana’s post-oriented offense with fresh bodies and physicality.

Prediction: Indiana 68, Michigan State 85