Iowa and Michigan State football will do battle in Iowa City on Saturday night. What storylines will take center stage?
Michigan State football hits the road for the first time this season when they travel to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes. Both teams will enter the game 0-1 in Big Ten play. Both teams will be looking to rebound from awful offensive performances a week ago.
Here are three questions I have heading into Saturday night with a prediction at the end.
1. Can either team score?
No, seriously. The total for this game currently sits at 36.5. The only time you’ll see a lower total is with a game involving two service academies. Iowa is coming off a shutout against Penn State that featured one of the most lopsided box scores you’ll ever see (97-33 play advantage for Penn State??). Michigan State moved the ball against Maryland but couldn’t get out of their own way with five turnovers.
Iowa ranks 131st in the nation in total offense with just 245 yards per game. The Hawkeyes have thrown for just 508 yards this season. They rank last in the Big Ten with offensive plays over 10 yards and have picked up only 50 first downs in four games. Michigan State’s numbers are a little better, but they are inflated by an offensive outburst against FCS-level Richmond.
In two games against Power Five opponents, Michigan State scored a total of 16 points. Starting quarterback Noah Kim has completed just 47 percent of his passes in those two games with three interceptions. Things aren’t going to get any easier on Saturday against a strong Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes rank in the top 50 nationally in most defensive statistics. They are fundamentally sound and have allowed just five plays all year to go for more than 20 yards.
After getting bombed by Washington’s offense, Michigan State’s defense rebounded after a tough start against Maryland. Despite that, this is still a Spartan defense that can be taken advantage of. MSU hasn’t forced a sack since the game against Richmond and has only generated four turnovers all year. Is Iowa built to take advantage of that? The answer is “probably not”. Iowa does not run the ball particularly well. Their passing game does not produce explosive plays. Quarterback Cade McNamara has been banged up this year and still does not look healthy. Most games involving Iowa turn into low-scoring, field position battles that are decided by the team that makes “the big mistake”. This game feels no different.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the only touchdown we see in this game comes from a defensive or special teams unit.
2. What is Michigan State’s plan at quarterback?
Look, I’ve been extremely adamant about my belief that Kim is the best option for Michigan State right now. I just don’t believe that in an open competition, the MSU coaches would start their second favorite quarterback. Kim has played deep into every game this year, even after the outcome of the Washington game was decided. After getting pulled in the fourth quarter against Maryland, Harlon Barnett doubled down on his belief in Kim as the starter. Whether that’s the right decision or not is impossible for any of us to know. We’re not in the building. We’re not at practice. We can only judge based on what we see on Saturday. And at some point, the coaches need to judge from that perspective as well.
Kim’s play over the last two weeks hasn’t been good enough. He’s not entirely to blame. It’s a bad offense. But at this point in the season, the pieces around the quarterback aren’t changing. If he can’t get it done with this group, then the staff needs to see if someone else can do a better job. They might not think Katin Houser is ready. He might not be ready under normal circumstances. But in a broken offense, in a season spiraling downwards, what do you have to lose? He could surprise us. He could go down in flames. There’s going to come a point in this season where MSU needs to find out.
Unless MSU completely rolls over, Iowa shouldn’t run away with this game. Watch for Houser to get the call in the second half to try and turn things around if the Spartan offense struggles.
3. Who plays for MSU and how is that handled?
The game against Iowa will be the fifth for Michigan State football. Under the new redshirt rules, players can appear in up to four games while preserving their redshirt status. So, anyone who plays a snap to appear in their fifth game on Saturday night will be using a year of eligibility. There are 10 players on Michigan State’s roster who have not used a redshirt season yet and have also appeared in all four games. Impact starters Dillon Tatum, Malik Spencer, Chance Rucker, Zion Young, Jordan Hall, and Tyrell Henry are all part of that list.
The Mel Tucker situation has derailed this season. With uncertainty regarding the next coaching staff, opting to preserve a year of eligibility would be understandable. In the immediate context of this game against Iowa though, how will MSU handle that?
The Spartans were able to hang around against Maryland with the home crowd backing them. This is MSU’s first road game. Kinnick Stadium at night is a place where things can unravel. If MSU is without key players (there are injuries at play as well), and gets behind early, this could snowball on them and get pretty ugly.
The Spartans have said and done all of the right things since the Tucker story broke. There is nothing to suggest that there will be a mass exodus mid-season. But when the rubber meets the road, I’d be stunned if every member of MSU’s team moves forward with this season.
We won’t know until the availability report comes out an hour before kickoff. But that is as big of a story to watch as the game itself.
Prediction
Iowa opened as a 7.5-point favorite and has since been bet all the way up to 12.5. Iowa may not even be able to score 13 points to cover this number in a shutout. This is a winnable game for Michigan State because of the variability that comes with these low-scoring affairs. But you simply cannot bet on Michigan State football on Saturday.
Kinnick Stadium is an extremely difficult place to win. At night, with a shaky offense, it’s almost impossible. Iowa doesn’t give up explosive plays on defense. That’s been Michigan State’s best source of offense this season. To score, they’re going to have to sustain long drives, convert on third down, and cash in their red zone opportunities for touchdowns.
Unfortunately for the Spartans, they can’t seem to go five plays without a penalty, negative play, or turnover. This strikes me as a game that MSU will never feel completely out of because they will always be one play away from making it interesting. But I expect Iowa to be their usual selves on defense and special teams. They’ll wear down the Spartans and get stronger as the night goes on.
Final: Michigan State 6, Iowa 19
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