Michigan State football at Iowa preview: Will the offense show up?

Michigan State football will be on the road this weekend to take on Iowa in what should be an ugly game.

Following a four-game home stand to begin the year, Michigan State football hits the road for the first time this year. Things will not get any easier in a night game matchup at Kinnick Stadium against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz and his staff are also looking to bounce back after suffering a 31-0 drubbing against Penn State in the White Out, where Iowa only totaled 76 yards of offense.

As of Wednesday, Iowa is a 12.5-point favorite.

Michigan state football offense vs. Iowa defense

Advantage, Iowa. Michigan State’s offense has had serious struggles throughout the season so far. It took a half to get going against Central Michigan, dominated lowly Richmond, seven meaningless points vs. Washington, and nine against Maryland. Iowa is tied for 26th in the country in scoring defense, surrendering 17 per game. Even that might be high considering their opponent last week. 

Many people often credit Iowa’s defense for its ability to generate turnovers. They averaged almost +1 in turnover margin per game the last two seasons. It has not been a similar story this year. The Hawkeye defense has actually only forced three turnovers so far this season, 109th in the FBS. Regardless, MSU has had troubles turning the ball over. The Spartan offense has handed over possession eight times this year, five of them being against Maryland. 

Regardless, Noah Kim needs to have the best game he has had all season in order for Michigan State to win this game. Iowa has one of the better pass defenses in the country, allowing only 4.8 yards per attempt this year. Kim’s recent play might be a sign that throwing would play into that strength for Iowa, as he averaged 5.2 yards per attempt with a sub-50 percent completion percentage against Washington and Maryland. He will have a strong secondary that includes Cooper DeJean, who has received first round draft projections. 

Another strategy would be to feed Nate Carter. Iowa is 71st in the country for rush defense this year. Carter is coming off a solid game against Maryland where he racked up 120 scrimmage yards. He will need help getting past Iowa linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson, who already have 50 and 36 total tackles each. 

Overall, the offense needs to be better. If Noah Kim is truly QB1, this is a great opportunity to go out there and prove it after only generating nine total points in his last eighteen drives. Michigan State has averaged 15.7 points per game against FBS competition. Iowa has averaged 21.3. 

Michigan State football defense vs. Iowa offense

This matchup favors the Spartans a lot more. The struggles of the Iowa offense and Brian Ferentz are well documented. Iowa is second-to-last in the FBS in total offense, ahead of only Eastern Michigan. The Hawkeyes only average 4.5 yards per play. They are 105th in scoring offense, 122nd on third down conversions, 119th in time of possession, the list goes on. 

Iowa’s offense was supposed to have improved somewhat. Getting familiar foe Cade McNamara out of the transfer portal was supposed to signify the first decent Iowa quarterback in years. It’s tough to imagine a quarterback that won a Big Ten title being anything close to the level of Spencer Petras. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, any improvement from Petras has been marginal. McNamara is only averaging about 115 passing yards per game, is barely above a 50 percent completion rate, only four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Tight end and leading receiver Luke Lachey is likely out for the season. The only other pass catcher over one hundred yards is Erick All, who also transferred from Michigan to Iowa. Michigan State’s defense ranks 92nd in defending the pass, but that also might be high after facing two quarterbacks much better than McNamara in Michael Penix Jr. and Taulia Tagovailoa. 

The run offense for Iowa is not a whole lot better. Brian Ferentz has split the carries between three backs: Kaleb Johnson, Leshon Williams, and Jaziun Patterson. Johnson has received the most carries, but has the least amount of yards of the trio, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. As for the other two, Williams leads the team in total rushing yards and has earned 6.9 per carry. Patterson also has gotten five per carry, but over half of his yards came on one 59-yard run against Iowa State. The Spartans currently rank 62nd in total run defense, surrendering 3.84 yards per carry. Iowa ranks 104th in total run offense with 3.79 yards per carry.

Special teams

Kirk Ferentz says “punting is winning” for a reason. Seeing the punter run onto the field is a dread anytime you are on offense, but having a good punter is important. Bryce Baringer was a fan favorite last year. Iowa’s punter is a genuine reason that the Hawkeyes are a multi-possession favorite in this football game. Tory Taylor ranks sixth in the country in punting at just under 48 yards per punt. The Melbourne, Australian native has placed nine of his twenty-three punts inside the twenty yard line. If this game is close, the odds of the Michigan State offense successfully being able to go 80-plus yards to score against the Iowa defense are extremely low. 

Michigan State football has shuffled between two different punters this season, Ryan Eckley and Ohio State transfer Michael O’Shaughnessy. Both appeared in the first three games, but O’Shaughnessy did the punting for the Maryland game. It is to be determined who will start in this position on Saturday, after one of O’Shaughnessy’s two punts only went 22 yards, allowing Maryland to kick a field goal on a drive where they went two yards. 

Nothing much to note for either team at kicker. MSU’s Jonathan Kim had a field goal blocked last week, his lone miss on the year. Iowa’s Drew Stevens missed one 41-yarder against Western Michigan, but has been solid in both of his years as a starter, being 20-for-23 overall, including no misses from inside the 40. 

Prediction

Unfortunately, I do not see this one going MSU’s way either. Iowa’s lackluster offense will allow the Spartans to be in the game into the second half, but the Iowa defense will be too strong in the end. Noah Kim struggles, and the calls for Katin Houser continue. 

Prediction: Iowa 20, Michigan State 7