Michigan State Football: Game-by-game spread projections for 2024

Kickoff is still a little over two months away, but let’s project the spreads for the upcoming Michigan State football season.

While we’re still a couple of months away from the 2024 season, sportsbooks across America have released season win total projections for every school. In Jonathan Smith’s first year with Michigan State football, the number has been set at five (-105). Quite a few people on social media have scoffed at that number. Many think the Spartans will easily win at least five games this fall.

Admittedly, at first glance, I tend to agree. But I’ve fallen into this trap before.

Just last year, I loudly endorsed the over on Michigan State – which was set at 5.5. Granted, I never saw the Mel Tucker situation ruining the season after two games. But truthfully, I’m not sure if it would have mattered. That was a bad team.

This year, I want to take a more serious approach to Michigan State’s season win total. To do that, I’m going to attempt to do a game-by-game analysis to generate a point spread. The point spread indicates how likely Michigan State is to win a particular game. From there, we can derive a win/loss record and match it up against the season-long projection.

For this exercise, we’ll use ESPN’s College Football Power Index. From my small amount of research, this seems to be the most accessible public database that mirrors what I’m trying to do. ESPN notes that this is a “predictive rating system” designed to project performance moving forward. This is very similar to a model that sportsbooks and advanced bettors would use when setting lines or placing wagers.

The nice thing about ESPN’s FPI is that it has already calculated an Expected Points Added (EPA) metric. Essentially, this number states how many “points above average” a specific team can add compared to the “average” team.

For example, Georgia ranks No. 1 in FPI in 2024 with a 26.8 EPA. Illinois is the closest team to average, according to FPI, with an EPA of 0.2. Taking the difference between these two values, the model projects Georgia to be about a 27-point favorite on a neutral field against Illinois.

This is where it’s worth noting that there are often vast differences between point spreads and power ratings. This is where the sportsbooks intervene to adjust the spread based on any number of factors. Injuries, home-field advantage, weather, travel, and public perception are just a few of the things that are considered.

We can see this play out in Michigan State’s Week 1 game against Florida Atlantic. This and the Michigan game already have point spreads available to wager on. According to FPI, Michigan State ranks 68th with an EPA of -1.0. Florida Atlantic comes in at 83^rd with an EPA of -4.8. If FPI projects the Spartans as a 4-point favorite, why is the line set at Michigan State -11?

As stated, we have to factor in home-field advantage. Traditionally, that’s worth about three points, if not more. We also have to factor in FAU traveling a long distance from Boca Raton to East Lansing, which is good for another point in the Spartans’ favor. The remaining gap from 8-9 points to the current line of 11 is where the sportsbooks manipulate the line to attract action on both sides.

My best guess is that the sportsbooks project Michigan State football to be a heavily bet side. They’re the bigger brand, at home, at night, with a new head coach. That’s worth a few extra points to the spread to get it above the key number of 10.

Remember, the casino is not trying to predict the outcome of the game. They’re trying to find the number that attracts equal money for both sides to secure a profit off the VIG (tax a bettor pays to lay -110).

Projecting spreads for each 2024 Michigan State football game

© Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

With that thought process in mind, here are some estimates for the point spread in every Michigan State game this fall. The lone exception is the Sept. 14 game against Prairie View A&M. FPI does not provide projections for FCS teams. Nonetheless, Michigan State will be massive favorites in a game they should win easily. For this exercise, we’ll assume the same 42-point spread that was used in last year’s game against FCS Richmond.

1. Michigan State (-11) vs. Florida Atlantic
2. Michigan State (+8) at Maryland
3. Michigan State (-42) vs. Prairie View A&M
4. Michigan State (+4) at Boston College
5. Michigan State (+28) vs. Ohio State
6. Michigan State (+31) at Oregon
7. Michigan State (+2.5) vs. Iowa
8. Michigan State (+24.5) at Michigan
9. Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Indiana
10. Michigan State (+4) at Illinois
11. Michigan State (-2.5) vs. Purdue
12. Michigan State (+1) vs. Rutgers

There are a couple of takeaways from this exercise.

First, outlining the game-by-game spreads illustrates just how pessimistic FPI is with Michigan State’s 2024 team. The Spartans rate higher than just two FBS teams on their schedule and find themselves favored in only four games as a result.

Second, the gap between the Spartans and the elite programs in college football (Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan) is substantial. Michigan State might find itself in the worst spot of the season when it travels to Oregon. FPI projects Oregon as a 25.5-point favorite. Throw in the lengthy travel, short week, the physicality of playing Ohio State the week before, and 31 points might not be large enough.

Lastly, there are real opportunities here for Michigan State to exceed expectations. If we count the games against FAU and Prairie View as wins, the Spartans need to win four out of six games that project to have a spread inside of a touchdown. Four of those games are at home. The road games against Boston College and Illinois are not intimidating road atmospheres.

So, while I’m not rushing to my phone to put money on Michigan State football over 4.5 wins, I can see the path. Assuming they can win as a favorite (big assumption), you’ll just need one more to secure a push. At the same time, this bet is open to quite a bit of variance given the unknowns with the roster, coaching staff, and the expected number of close games across this schedule.

In close games, any number of things can beat you. Missed field goals, bad officiating, fourth-down decisions, and so on. FPI projects Michigan State with 4.8 wins and 7.2 losses. It’s not a coincidence at all that the line is set at five. It feels about right. Now, it’s up to Jonathan Smith and this new group of Spartans to go out and prove them wrong.