Michigan State Football: Previewing Ohio State and Oregon

Michigan State football is getting into the meat of its schedule over the next two weeks. Let’s preview Oregon and Ohio State.

Welcome all to part two of my series previewing Michigan State football opponents for the 2024 season. The Spartans have already completed a third of their schedule, which, is crazy considering we still are not entirely sure what this team’s ceiling and floor is. What we do know, is that this team, in my and most others’ opinion, are right on schedule with a 3-1 record.

Now, the loss to Boston College was a hefty blow in the moment, spotting the Eagles 10 points in less than three minutes of game time to open the second half and ending the game on a deep ball interception on one of many throws on the year that Aidan Chiles would love to have back. There are an infinite number of ways to get to 3-1, but after watching the first four games, 3-1 feels right.

Here is are some things we do know about this team.

Offense is still sputtering. There have been flashes that this offense can get out of the gutter of FBS, but its been a slow road back so far. Michigan State is currently sitting at 101st with an offensive success rate of 36.6%. For the uninitiated, success rate is achieving 40% of yards to go on first down, 60 percent of yards to go on second down, and 100 percent of yards to go on third and fourth down.

The Spartans’ rushing attack, which is still a huge key to the overall offensive success in the Jonathan Smith/Brian Lindgren system is not where it needs to be, with a success rate of 36.2%, good for 115th in the nation. The passing game has not faired much better, ranking 87th with an 37.5% success rate.

The flashes mentioned earlier have come from explosive plays, like the throws to Nick Marsh against Maryland and the Carter and KLA house calls. It is those explosive plays that push MSU’s EPA/rush to 23rd in the nation. The EPA/Dropback comes to 83rd nationally, but there again is where the costly Chiles interceptions show themselves. As we’ll see later, the offense will face their toughest tests over this stretch, and its hard to be positive.

The defense may actually be solid. This statement is going to age like milk this coming Saturday. For all intents and purposes, this defense has truly been much improved relative to the years before. We have seen the unit keep MSU in every game of substance so far this year. They tightened up against FAU, despite taking Francher’s head off multiple times. They forced a Maryland team looking to close out a game into a field goal attempt that turned the tide of the game. Even in a loss to Boston College, the defense stepped up with a goal-line stand to keep the game tied in the fourth quarter, giving the offense a chance to take the lead.

This is a defense that is 24th in overall success rate at 34.4%, posting the 20th-best rush success rate, and 36th-best dropback success rate.

Now, the offenses this defense has seen in this first section by no means compare to the likes of Ohio State and Oregon, but there is a true level of competency here that is refreshing, even taking into account the defense is missing one of its most versatile pieces in Dillon Tatum. It may not matter these next two weeks, but the level of play we’ve seen from the defense can keep them in games against the like of Iowa and Michigan.

As Chiles goes, the team goes. For better, and for worse. There is a lot to love about Aidan Chiles’ upside as a player, there is a reason 247Sports rated him as one of the best transfer portal quarterbacks this cycle. However, at times this season, we have seen him look every bit of a freshly 19-year-old first-year starting quarterback trying to find himself.

We have seen the talent, but we’ve seen the youth.

Chiles has accounted for seven touchdowns, but has accounted for eight turnovers as well. The turnovers has put strain on the offense’s ability to finish out drives with touchdowns.

Points/Eckel is a statistic that looks at how many points you’re scoring per successful drive (explosive touchdown OR drive with a first down inside your opponents 40-yard line). Michigan State football only comes away with 2.03 points/Eckel, good for 122nd in the nation. The Spartans rank 96th in points/drive overall with 1.235. This is in part to the turnovers ending drives early or not being able to punctuate what had been a successful drive that’s hard for the offense to come by. The turnovers also place the defense under more strain, where they rank 87th in starting field position, and 78th in Eckel rate.

The defense, on average, is seeing opponent drives start at the 28-yard line, with opponents achieving a successful drive 44.1% of the time. Ultimately the only way I would advocate for Chiles to sit is if he has an injury. A player with his caliber and upside needs to get the reps to improve. In the toughest stretch of the season, calls for Tommy Schuster to bail him out will be the loudest. This is all a part of the process. This is still Chiles’ team.

When looking at this during the preseason, this next four-game stretch looked like they all deserved to be grouped together. But therein lies the luxury of doing previews during the season, we see how teams develop. In looking at the state of these four teams, its clear that Ohio State and Oregon are a tier above Iowa and Michigan. This does not diminish the toughness of this stretch for MSU, but the path to victory against the Hawkeyes and Wolverines has grown since the beginning of August.

For the sake of the preview, we’ll look at Ohio State and Oregon, and save Iowa and Michigan for after the bye week.

Without further ado:

Week 5: OHIO STATE (HOME)

• 2024 Record: 3-0
• SP+ Rating (Overall/Offense/Defense): 2/11/1

Listen, Mark Dantonio is being enshrined in Spartan Stadium’s Ring of Honor for this game, a respectful nod to his time as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator under Jim Tressel, where he won a national title in 2002. That is the ONLY positive moment I am expecting coming into this game. Yes, the defense has improved. Yes, Jonathan Smith has seen Chip Kelly operate during their time as Pac-12 head coaches. HOWEVER, Michigan State has not won a home game against Ohio State since 1999 — 1999. Michigan State has lost its last eight matchups against the Buckeyes, being outscored 320-77 in the process. In the Mel Tucker era? 195-42. The Spartans have been absolutely erased in these games. Ryan Day took over a program from Urban Meyer that has been tailor-made to dismantle the green and white.

For what I am actually going to look for in this game is what Ohio State shows as far as playbook. Will this defense cause enough problems to force Chip Kelly to put this Buckeye offense into a gear it hasn’t needed to get into so far this season? OSU currently ranks top five in all success rate metrics, top 10 in EPA metrics, including early downs EPA, and they rank best in the nation in points/drive and third in points/eckel offensively.

This is yet another year of Chuck Brantley lining up against a generational receiver in the scarlet and grey. Jeremiah Smith is showing he is as advertised so far this season. My guess is that Brantley will follow him around all game as opposed to holding his side of the field. Brantley has been one of the best surprises of the defense this season, having by far his best season. Those impressive season numbers will certain take a hit, but I’ll be interested in seeing how he tries to limit the damage.

This Buckeye defense holds equally as much firepower on the defensive side of the ball as well. Sonny Styles and transfer Caleb Downs anchor the secondary while JTT on the edge looks to solidify himself as a Day 1 pick. Their passing defense is their weakest part of their defense statistically, but that isn’t saying much, as they rank 38th in dropback success rate but are eighth in EPA/dropback. Meaning, even if you are successful, the defense does a very good job at limiting those successful plays from being explosive plays, a testament to the defense Jim Knowles is running.

With indications that Nick Marsh will be back in the playing rotation, will he be able to step in and make an impact?

My biggest curiosity in this game is how will Smith/Lindgren and Joe Rossi utilizing scheme to put their players in the best position to succeed while being outgunned in this showcase. We’ve seen Rossi mix things up defensively when things weren’t working, so I would like for that trend to continue. With the offense, can they get some cheap first downs early to settle the offense into the game to at least give them a chance to get into rhythm and give them an opportunity to at least have a say in dictating the flow of the game.

I still expect Ohio State to cover ultimately, I just don’t want that to be the case by halftime. But before you struggle through this game, remember the good times.

WEEK 6: OREGON (AWAY – FRIDAY)

• 2024 Record: 3-0
• SP+ Rating (Overall/Offense/Defense): 9/4/32

Narratively speaking, this game has a good amount of interest. Smith obviously has history with the Ducks as rivals, considering his ties to both Oregon State and Washington. It is Demetrice Martin’s first trip back to Eugene after leaving the staff to join the Spartans. Familiar face Derrick Harmon is an anchor point in Oregon’s defensive line.

Much like Michigan State, in their own way, there’s not a whole ton we know about what this Oregon team is. Despite not being in any real danger of losing, they only came away with a 10 point win against Idaho. The Ducks were only a few plays away from being a part of Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman moment, narrowly scraping by at home on a game winning field goal. Oregon looked to be more in line to their  preseason expectations in the Civil War against Oregon State, cruising to a 49-14 victory.

A big reason for these hiccups, especially against Idaho and Boise State, was the offensive line play. Dillon Gabriel was sacked seven times in those games, but was kept clean against the Beavers. The Oregon offense is built around Gabriel getting the ball out and into their skill position players to make a play. Receivers Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Traeshon Holden will certainly look to cause issues against Michigan State football, with tight end Terrance Ferguson there as the security blanket.

Oregon sits at 10th in the nation in offensive success rate at 48.3% (13th in rush at 48.5%, 18th in dropback at 46.0%), and top 15ish in EPA/rush and EPA/dropback. Due to the early struggles in the offense, Oregon is 43rd and 45th in Eckel rate (47.6%) and points/eckel (3.63). There is potential here for the defense to really prove itself to be as solid as we think it could be, albeit on short rest. I do have concerns with the speed of the Oregon receiving corps being able to break free of any sort of man coverage looks and create huge plays.

While the Red Bandana Game was the first road test for Michigan State football offensively, going into a night game at Autzen will be its biggest to date. We hope to see some progress in what is almost positively going to be a loss to the Buckeyes to breathe some confidence coming into this spot.

The data suggests this Oregon defense is just slightly above average in allowing teams to move the ball against them, ranking 46th in Eckel rate and 76th in points/eckel. They could pose a problem in the passing game, ranking 13th in dropback success rate and 22nd in EPA/dropback. This does beg the question of asking who really has been able to test them? Chiles is likely the most talented quarterback this Ducks defense will face so far this season, will we see him take a step against his former rival? The good news is that Oregon is only average in early downs EPA (69th, nice) and late down success rate (67th). Being merely average in these metrics could allow Chiles and Co. to get settled in a hostile road environment and provides an opportunity to take the wind out of the stadium.

Ultimately best case scenario is Michigan State football finds itself in at least a position to win the game in the fourth quarter, whether they do or not is irrelevant to my expectation. Best case that Chiles has his best game as a Spartan, the run game actually has a pulse outside of 1-2 explosive plays, and that the defense either is taking advantage of poor Oregon offensive line play or is somehow able to keep the speed of the Ducks’ skill position players limited. Easy to say on paper, much harder to do out there on the field.

From these two games, I want to walk away saying this team is capable and competitive. Its been almost 10 years since Michigan State football has been competitive in games like this. I think there is a better path to an upset against the Ducks than the Buckeyes. As much as they should not be, these games are litmus tests to see where this team is against the best in the conference and in the country. More importantly, this stretch will show how the coaches script games against top tier teams. Will they try to be more conservative, or will they understand the moment and take risks that could pay off to lead to an upset? These games also have a great chance to break bad, and Michigan State has every opportunity to look like the rebuilding first year team that they.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Go Green. See you after the bye week.