Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Boston College

Michigan State football will be on the East Coast this weekend for a showdown with Boston College. Here’s what you need to know.

Michigan State football will look to stay undefeated this season in its non-conference finale against Boston College. The Spartans will be traveling to Chestnut Hill for the first time since 1992. MSU is just 1-4-1 all-time against the Eagles.

Non-conference games between Power Four opponents always bring about interesting opportunities. On Saturday, Michigan State will be participating in Boston College’s annual Red Bandana Game. It’s a celebration of September 11 hero and Boston College alum Welles Crowther, whose heroics on that tragic day saved at least a dozen people.

It’s a celebration that is deeply important to the Boston College community. Under the lights, with the added emotion that comes with the circumstances should be an incredible atmosphere.

From a football perspective, this is a fascinating matchup.

Here are three keys to the game with a prediction.

1. The line of scrimmage

The standalone game on Labor Day against Florida State gave everyone a nice, long look at Boston College. Their offense hums when they can lean on a power running game. The Eagles use a stable of running backs behind a big, veteran offensive line. Their quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, is also a threat with his legs. In their wins, the Eagles have gotten their way with that strategy. But last week at Missouri, they were held to 49 yards on 26 attempts in a six-point loss.

Thus far, Michigan State has been solid on defense against the run. Currently, they rank 23rd in America, allowing just 2.24 yards per carry. MSU can take solace in the fact that Missouri (ranked slightly ahead of MSU in rush metrics) was able to shut down the Boston College attack. The Spartans have rotated several players along the defensive line thus far, with unexpected surprises in the form of D’Quan Douse, Kris Bogle, and Ken Talley. And while this MSU team has been hit hard with the injury bug, the defensive line is in pretty good shape.

Offensively, while Michigan State isn’t nearly as dependent on the running game, it would make life much easier if they could get it going. The Spartans have shown explosiveness on the ground but lack a consistent punch. Per Chris Solari of the Detroit Free Press, Michigan State’s 16 carries of 10 yards or more have accounted for 62 percent of their rushing yards. In their other 86 attempts, they are averaging just 2.1 yards per attempt.

A questionable offensive line coming into the season has played about as expected. But MSU will be down to its third-string guard on Saturday after losing Kristian Phillips and Gavin Broscious to season-ending injuries.

Boston College profiles as an equally challenging rush defense. But like Michigan State football, its metrics are heavily weighted towards dominant games against Florida State and Duquesne.

The game starts, and likely ends right here at the point of attack. MSU wants to force Thomas Castellanos to beat them with his arm. Boston College needs to eliminate explosive run plays and make the Spartans beat them with 8, 10, 12-play drives. The offensive line that can move the opponent’s defensive front will immediately have the upper hand on Saturday night.

2. Thomas Castellanos and Aidan Chiles

Quarterback play is one of the reasons why this game is so interesting. Both teams have dynamic playmakers at the position. Neither defensive coordinator will sleep well on Friday night preparing for their opponent. But both players have also shown a tendency to make mistakes.

We’ll start with Aidan Chiles for Michigan State. He’s taken fans on a bit of a roller coaster so far this season. He showed dazzling arm strength and downfield accuracy against Maryland. He showed some mobility against FAU. The best version of Aidan Chiles is one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten.

But he’s still young. He’s still learning. Through three games, it’s shown. Chiles has as many touchdowns as interceptions, plus two lost fumbles. Too often, he tries to extend plays beyond their shelf life, with low percentage throws downfield. He’s put the MSU defense in some tough situations this year with his turnovers, and so far, they’ve been able to pick him up. That won’t last. Chiles has to take better care of the football, or he will cost MSU in this game.

For Boston College, it’s year two of the Thomas Castellanos show. A terrifying athlete, Castellanos is a burner with his legs. He’s attempted fewer than nine carries only once in his Boston College career, with 14 rushing touchdowns in 16 career games. Scrambles, designed runs, improvisation, it doesn’t matter. Joe Rossi and this Michigan State defense will see it all on Saturday.

It’s a different story for Castellanos as a passer. He’s battled inaccuracy and turnovers throughout his time as a starter. Against FBS opponents, Castellanos has thrown for over 200 yards only four times. He’s thrown 16 interceptions across 16 starts and has never completed more than 20 passes in a single game.

While his numbers this year look markedly improved (589 yards, nine touchdowns), I think there is some fool’s gold in those numbers — 234 of those yards and four of his nine touchdown passes came against Duquesne. Against Missouri, his 67-yard touchdown pass came on a broken play where he dropped the snap, picked it up, and lofted it over the defensive backs that abandoned their men in pursuit of the fumble. Late in that same game, Castellanos found Kamari Morales for a wide open 38-yard score after Missouri blew a coverage. Those two plays accounted for 105 of his 249 yards passing. And against FSU, Castellanos only threw for 106 yards.

Credit to Castellanos for making the plays that are there. Perhaps that’s evidence that he has improved. Maybe those were throws that he couldn’t make a year ago. But I still need to see more to be convinced.

This is a big test for Rossi and Michigan State’s defense. They’ve been well-schooled and fundamentally sound up until this point. But they haven’t seen an athlete like Thomas Castellanos yet. We’ll find out a lot about this MSU defense on Saturday night.

3. Penalties and special teams

The most surprising aspect of this football season for Michigan State football has been its lack of discipline. The Spartans are committing 11 penalties per game amounting to 114 yards. For reference, Boston College has committed 11 penalties all season.

Michigan State was flagged excessively for late hits on scrambling FAU quarterback Cam Fancher. MSU will have to learn from their mistakes, because they’ll face a similar challenge with Thomas Castellanos. You can bet BC coach Bill O’Brien will have the officials looking for those late hits after watching them show up on film.

While the Eagles will enjoy a decisive advantage in the penalty department, Michigan State holds the clear edge on special teams. Jonathan Kim has excellent range, and already has a game winning kick under his belt this season. Ryan Eckley continues to launch long range missiles in the punting game.

Meanwhile, punting has been an adventure thus far for Boston College. The Eagles use two different punters, but neither has been very effective, with just 36 yards per punt. For comparison, Ryan Eckley ranks third in America at over 50 yards per kick.

Boston College has also not attempted a field goal this year. Whether that’s a signal towards the confidence they have in their kicker, or lack of opportunity remains to be seen. Regardless, Saturday’s weather forecast has taken a turn for the worse. High winds and possible rain are expected, making the kicking game that much more difficult. Michigan State’s advantage here could become even more pronounced if Mother Nature has a say.

Prediction

Boston College is currently a touchdown favorite at home against the Spartans. Vegas isn’t all that impressed with either offense so far, setting the total at 45.5.

I liked Boston College a lot more prior to writing this. The more I dug into their numbers, the more I think they’re closer to a 7-win team than they are a 9-win team.

The Florida State win looks less impressive with each passing week. I don’t care that they dominated Duquesne. And even though the final score didn’t quite reflect it, Missouri handled them fairly easily a week ago.

I think Rossi can come up with a good game plan to contain Thomas Castellanos. Michigan State’s front seven has been solid against the run this year. And Ryan Eckley should help Michigan State football win the field position battle.

My concerns lie with this Spartan offense. I’m not confident they can get a push up front with a banged up offensive line. Chiles and Nick Marsh caught Maryland off guard. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone else.

If the wind blows as strongly as expected, that’s bad news for MSU. Gusts are expected up to 45 mph. Nobody can throw downfield in those conditions.

MSU has skated by so far despite a rash of injuries and sloppy mistakes. This is a game and an opponent that won’t allow it. The Maryland win might have distorted expectations a bit for the 2024 Spartans. After all, this line is still about where we expected it to be in the preseason.

At night, in the Red Bandana Game, I’m worried this could snowball on the young Spartans. I hope I’m wrong, because I’ll be in attendance. But I don’t think Michigan State is quite ready for this challenge.

Final: Boston College 21, Michigan State 14