Michigan State football: 3 key factors and a prediction vs. Rutgers

Here are three things we should be watching for from Michigan State football vs. Rutgers and a final score prediction.

Michigan State football is back in action this weekend after a much-needed bye week. The Spartans will stay on the road against Rutgers as they look for their first win in Big Ten play.

Here are three things to watch for and a prediction.

1. Katin Houser

For as poorly as this season has gone for Michigan State, Saturday almost feels like a fresh start. To everyone watching, it’s been extremely obvious that a change is needed at quarterback. Harlon Barnett all but confirmed it in his press conference earlier this week. Barring a freak injury or illness on Saturday, it appears as if Katin Houser will be making his first start as a Spartan.

For an offense that has looked lifeless in its previous three games, this could be the jolt they need. Houser comes in as one of the most highly-rated recruits to ever play the position at MSU. We’ve seen bits of him so far this year, but not enough to draw any conclusions. The existing tape has been good enough though to leave people wanting more. But expectations should be tempered. This is still an offense with a shaky offensive line and limited playmakers.

Greg Schiano is an excellent defensive coach. Houser is still a young player and he’s making his first start on the road. The good news for Katin is that he can’t be much worse than what MSU has gotten out of the position over the past month. Noah Kim led just one touchdown drive over the better part of three games while also tossing six interceptions. A great quarterback can cover up a lot of warts on offense. Houser has the talent to be that type of cover and help MSU win this game. He is also just as likely to implode and lead MSU’s downfall.

At the very least, MSU fans will finally get a look at what they have or don’t have at the quarterback position for the future.

2. The Rutgers passing offense

Like a lot of teams in the Big Ten, Rutgers wants to run the ball and throw it only when necessary. Their ability to run the ball has a strong correlation with their ability to win games. In games that the Scarlet Knights have won, they’ve rushed for 225 yards per game. In losses, that number drops all the way to 70. We know the best way to attack this MSU defense is through the air. But this is a good matchup for Michigan State’s defense because they’ve shown that they can stop the run.

That puts pressure on this Rutgers passing attack.

Quarterback Gavin Wimsatt has yet to throw for over 200 yards in a game this season. He’s completing just 52 percent of his passes on 6.5 yards per attempt. While Wimsatt’s overall numbers are unimpressive, the deeper statistics show that he’s doing exactly what Rutgers needs him to do. He’s only thrown two interceptions. He’s only been sacked three times. His higher completion percentage on second and third down would indicate that he’s taking more chances on first down and checking down to get positive yardage on later downs.

However, if MSU is able to contain the running game, it’s going to put Rutgers in situations where they have to throw. In the Big Ten, only Nebraska and Iowa have converted fewer third downs via the pass than Rutgers. That feels like an area of emphasis for Scottie Hazelton and this MSU defense.

Michigan State has to stack the box and make Rutgers prove that they can move the ball through the air.

3. Finishing drives

Touchdowns are worth more than field goals. Field goals are better than coming away with zero. These two teams are tied for 31st nationally in opponent scoring percentage inside the red zone. Both teams allow a touchdown on 50 percent of their defensive possessions – well below the national average.

On offense, both teams are scoring on over 80 percent of their red zone trips. Rutgers ranks in the top 20 nationally in touchdown percentage at 75. Michigan State football is lower at 62.5 percent but started the year a perfect 9-for-9.

To summarize, we have two teams that excel at scoring and preventing scores in the red zone. That’s where this game will be won and lost. For Rutgers, it’s going to rely on that running game to convert in short yardage situations. For Michigan State football, it’ll have to hope the quarterback change helps eliminate the turnovers. In all honesty though, MSU shouldn’t even find out if that matters.

Would you believe me if I told you Nate Carter was leading the Big Ten in rushing yards per game? Well, it’s true. He needs the ball more. I understand he already leads the conference in attempts per game. But he’s their most talented player on offense. Get creative. Katin Houser’s job becomes much easier if he isn’t asked to shoulder the load with his arm. The Spartans showed a little bit of a thump with their rushing attack against Iowa. For reasons unknown, they didn’t stick to it. That has to change on Saturday if MSU wants to be successful in the red zone.

Prediction

Michigan State opened as a 5.5-point underdog. This line has come down towards Michigan State and currently sits around 4. I really want to take Michigan State in this game. There’s no talent gap here. Rutgers isn’t going to do anything that MSU can’t handle. These teams profile as pretty even statistically. I also get the sense that despite things spiraling on MSU’s season, the locker room is still in a good spot. But until MSU proves otherwise, I can’t do it. I’ve seen this team kill themselves far too many times with disastrous turnovers, silly penalties, and questionable coaching decisions. The Spartans rank dead last in the Big Ten in penalty yards and second to last in turnover margin.

On the other side, you have the polar opposite. Rutgers closes the talent gap by being fundamentally sound, well-coached, and disciplined.

I expect this to be close and I expect MSU to look like the better team at multiple points throughout this game. But the Spartans haven’t shown that they can put together four – or even two – quarters of clean football. I don’t expect Saturday to be much different.

Final: Michigan State 16, Rutgers 21