Michigan State basketball: Analytics predict Spartans will go on a run

The analytics love Michigan State basketball this season and Torvik predicts the Spartans will finish the year 9-1.

Michigan State basketball is halfway through its Big Ten season and sits at 13-8 overall and 5-5 in conference play. Certainly not where MSU fans want to be but it is much better than it was.

The Spartans started Big Ten play 1-4, so they have been on a solid run in their last five games. A 4-1 record is no joke no matter who the opponents are, but when you factor in that the one loss came on the road to a top-10 opponent, it puts into perspective the solid run the Spartans have been on.

Even with this recent run, there is still work to be done. Michigan State needs to keep rattling off some wins to lock in their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Thankfully for MSU, one analytics site predicts the Spartans will go on a run to finish the season.

Torvik predicts nine wins in final 10 games

The analytics site “Torvik” is one database that not only ranks teams based on a large amount of data but also predicts results for every game of the season. And looking at this data for Michigan State specifically, they predict the Spartans to go on a run to finish the season.

Of the 10 remaining games, Torvik has MSU favored to win nine of them. The one loss, which I’m sure you all could guess, is at Purdue. Torvik favors the Boilermakers by 10.8 points and gives MSU a 15 percent chance to win this game.

For the other nine games, however, Torvik predicts a Michigan State basketball victory. This includes close wins over Illinois (by three points), Indiana (by 4.3 points), and Minnesota (by 5.1 points). Weirdly enough, Torvik predicts a close rematch against Michigan, giving the Spartans a 4.7-point advantage against their rivals.

Another number that is surprising to me is their prediction for the final home game against Northwestern. Torvik gives MSU a 77 percent chance to win and favors the Spartans by 7.3 points.

Game-by-game breakdown

Here is the percent chance to win and the point advantage/disadvantage in each remaining game for Michigan State.

• Maryland 85% (+9.5 points)
• @ Minnesota 70% (+5.1 points)
• Illinois 61% (+3 points)
• @ Penn State 72% (+5.9 points)
• @ Michigan 68% (+4.7 points)
• Iowa 82% (+10.3 points)
• Ohio State 81% (+8.6 points)
• @ Purdue 15% (-10.8 points)
• Northwestern 77% (+7.3 points)
• Indiana 67% (+4.3 points)

Now I know this ultimately doesn’t mean a thing for Michigan State’s season. The Spartans still have to go out there and win these games. But the analytics have been high on Michigan State all season, even with their early season struggles, and it’s something interesting to note. If MSU can finish the year 9-1, I think we all would be thrilled and hopeful for another deep NCAA Tournament run.