Michigan State basketball: 3 bold predictions vs. Indiana State

Michigan State basketball hosts a pesky Indiana State team on Saturday and here are three of our boldest predictions for the matchup.

Another game means another set of bold predictions. Michigan State basketball takes on Indiana State on Saturday afternoon in a very intriguing matchup. MSU comes in at 7-5 while Indiana State is riding a 10-game win streak and is 11-1 overall.

The Spartans are going to have to play well if they want to win this game, so let’s hope some of these bold predictions come true.

1. Indiana State shoots below 25 percent from 3-point range

This may not seem like a “bold” prediction initially. Teams have off shooting nights all the time, especially from 3-point range, so would it really be that surprising for any team to shoot under 25 percent from deep? For this Indiana State team, it would be.

So far this season, the Sycamores are No. 5 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 41.3%. Their season-low this season in a game is only 33.3%. Some teams would be happy just to average 33 percent throughout their season. The Sycamores also have five guys averaging over 40 percent from deep, including Julian Larry at 61.9%.

Thankfully for MSU, we have been decent at defending the three recently. Our last three opponents have all shot under 32% from deep, including Baylor who is the No. 1 team in the country in 3-point percentage. Holding Indiana State under 25 percent will not be easy, but if we accomplish that I don’t see a way we lose this game.

2. AJ Hoggard makes three 3-pointers

AJ Hoggard making this many 3-pointers in one game would be shocking for a few reasons. First of all, this isn’t his game. AJ is at his best when he’s driving and attacking the rim. Whether he’s finishing himself or setting up teammates, this is his style of play. He isn’t someone who typically takes lots of threes, he’s usually the person setting guys up for threes.

Statistically, AJ has made more than one 3-pointer in only one game this year. That was against Wisconsin when he made 2-of-5 attempts. So not only are threes not part of his normal game, but he also hasn’t really flirted with three makes in a game yet this year either.

3. MSU outrebounds Indiana State by 10-plus

MSU has not been a good rebounding team this season. They are only out-rebounding their opponents by about one rebound on average this season. That puts MSU at No. 172 in the country in rebounding margin this season, not good. Thankfully for us, Indiana State isn’t any better. The Sycamores are also only +1 on average in rebounding margin, slightly below MSU at No. 178 in the country.

Something has to give in this game, and I think it will be in MSU’s favor. This is unacceptable in Tom Izzo’s eyes. He has always preached the importance of rebounding to his teams and dominating the glass used to be a staple of our program.

I think it’s about time that he drills rebounding into our team enough that we dominate the rebounding margin on Saturday.