Michigan State basketball: Game preview, prediction vs. No. 13 Purdue

Michigan State basketball returns home to face another Big Ten behemoth in Purdue. This is the only meeting this season between these teams, and Tuesday’s game has major Big Ten title implications.

Let’s learn more about Purdue and check in with Michigan State before offering some predictive analysis.

Scouting Purdue

You’ve got to tip your cap to Matt Painter. After losing one of the best players in program history, the Boilermakers have kept rolling. Purdue enters this game with a top-10 rating on KenPom and a projected top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament. And while this team may not have the ceiling of the Zach Edey teams, they are still very good.

When playing Purdue, the scouting report starts and ends with three players. Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer are the guys that can beat you. Stop one, and your chances of winning increase exponentially.

Of course, that’s much easier said than done. Kaufman-Renn and Smith are currently two of the top six most efficient players in America, according to KenPom. Both will almost certainly be first-team All-Big Ten players. And even though Loyer isn’t as well-rounded as the other two, he’s a lethal shooter, making over 45 percent of his 3-point attempts this season.

By now, you’re probably familiar with Braden Smith. The junior has been a key contributor for Purdue since his first days on campus. But this is a much different player than we saw as a freshman and sophomore. Smith has turned himself into the best point guard in college basketball. His 8.8 assists per game are second in America. He never comes off the floor, playing all 40 minutes in four of Purdue’s past five games. Despite that massive workload, his turnover rate has never been lower. And by the way, he averages over 16 points per game.

Kaufman-Renn is a traditional low post, scoring big man. And while he doesn’t have the size of dominant Purdue post players of the past, he’s very athletic, with tremendous touch around the rim. He’s the most heavily used offensive player in the Big Ten and is still shooting over 61 percent from the field. He’s scored in double figures in every game this season to go along with 6.3 rebounds per contest.

Purdue is the most efficient offense in the Big Ten, largely due to TKR’s efficiency and the team’s 3-point shooting as a collective (36 percent). When one of Purdue’s big three isn’t scoring, it’s usually C.J. Cox from three, or Caleb Furst putting back an offensive rebound.

The early-season injury to Daniel Jacobsen hurt the Boilermakers’ depth. Painter doesn’t give heavy minutes to more than seven guys, and Jacobsen’s absence has left them without a ton of size. Purdue has been poor at defending the rim this season, ranking 17th in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed.

Purdue’s defensive splits in and out of conference are alarming. While they currently grade out as the third-best defense in the Big Ten, it doesn’t align with their rating of 39th for the entire season. They’ve dominated some of the bottom feeders in the league, likely inflating that defensive rating in conference play. This isn’t a roster that will overwhelm you with athleticism, and competent offensive teams have been able to take advantage. On Saturday, Wisconsin dropped 94 at Mackey Arena with a staggering 1.45 points per possession.

Michigan State update

Michigan State basketball is feeling rejuvenated after picking up a colossal road win against Illinois. After trailing by as many as 16 in the first half, the Spartans rallied and held Illinois scoreless for the final six minutes to win by 14.

Jaxon Kohler was the story of the game, with 23 points and 10 rebounds to go along with four three-pointers. His offensive development and rebounding prowess could be major news for Michigan State basketball as it heads into March.

After losing at home to Indiana, it felt like Michigan State’s Big Ten title chances were gone. But after the weekend, they find themselves in a position to seize control with games against Purdue and Michigan.

The point of emphasis for the Spartans should be on their interior defense. Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau whipped Michigan State basketball a week ago. They’ll have to do what they can to make Kaufman-Renn inefficient and keep Caleb Furst off the offensive glass to beat Purdue.

Kohler, again, becomes an interesting player for MSU in this game. Obviously, he’s tasked with defending TKR and keeping him off the boards. But Kohler’s offensive game should be used here as well. The weakness with Kaufman-Renn is his availability due to foul trouble. As MSU’s best low post scoring threat, it’s in the Spartans’ best interest to go right at him early on.

He’s drawn plenty of criticism from fans this season for his offensive game. But people need to start appreciating the type of defender Jaden Akins has become. His efforts against Oregon and Illinois were as important to winning as the offensive outbursts from Jase Richardson and Kohler.

Again, Michigan State basketball will need his services. He should spend most of the game guarding Fletcher Loyer or Braden Smith. My guess is that he’ll start the game on Loyer, to preserve some of his energy for the offensive end of the floor. But he’s also a solid “in case of emergency” option to put on Smith if he’s torching the Spartans.

Coen Carr is an interesting chess piece in this game as well. When he’s in, he will certainly take his turn guarding Fletcher Loyer. That’s a matchup that favors Michigan State due to Carr’s strength and athleticism. I’m curious to see if he gets a shot at guarding Kaufman-Renn as well. We’ve seen Carr fare well this year guarding taller players, such as Rutgers’ Ace Bailey. He has all the physical tools to bother TKR, and could serve as a nice changeup to keep Purdue off balance.

Prediction

Michigan State basketball is favored by 3.5 at home against Purdue. It’s a tricky spot for the Spartans. Coming off a hard-earned win on Saturday, a post-game celebration followed for Tom Izzo’s record-breaking 354th Big Ten victory. Now, Michigan State must face a quick turnaround against a quality Purdue team with their archrivals waiting on Friday.

But I do like this matchup for Michigan State. The Spartans have struggled this year against bigger, more athletic teams that slow the pace. That isn’t Purdue. Trey Kaufman-Renn should get his in this game, as he does on most nights. But I like Jaden Akins, and potentially Coen Carr, to cause enough problems for Purdue’s backcourt.

Michigan State basketball has the rebounding advantage, and its rotation is much deeper. Purdue’s big three has played 211 of the available 240 minutes over the past two games. With this being their third game in seven days, I wonder if fatigue will be a factor.

And we can’t forget about the whistle. Foul trouble for Kaufman-Renn is a huge factor in this game. Purdue’s offense is far less effective with him on the bench. And as we know, Michigan State is excellent at drawing fouls.

At home, I’m not worried about Michigan State coming out flat or looking past Purdue. Keep in mind, the Spartans have lost five in a row against the Boilermakers. There are a lot of veterans on this team who have to be salivating at the chance to finally play the Boilermakers without Zach Edey.

Prediction: Michigan State 79, Purdue 74