Michigan State basketball: Game preview, prediction at Illinois

Tom Izzo will bring his search for Big Ten win No. 354 to Champaign on Saturday as he attempts to break Bob Knight’s all-time record for wins in the conference. The Spartans and Illini will be playing for a second time this season after Michigan State basketball won the first matchup in East Lansing.

Here’s an update on both teams and some analysis on the gambling line.

Illinois update

There may not be a more difficult team in America to figure out than Illinois. The Fighting Illini are loaded with talent. They have a great coach, and they enjoy one of America’s better home-court advantages. Yet, Illinois finds itself firmly out of the Big Ten race with a 9-6 record. And even though Illinois is an analytical darling (15th in KenPom), nobody in the site’s top 25 has more losses (8) than the Illini.

Yes, Illinois has played a difficult schedule, with non-conference games that include Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, and Duke. But they’ve also lost games to Northwestern, USC, Nebraska, and Rutgers. They’ve been a true “Jekyll and Hyde” type team this year.

The good version of Illinois overwhelms you with pace, transition offense, and rebounding. Brad Underwood has been effusive with his praise of Tom Izzo over the years. So, it’s no surprise that he’s tried to model his teams after the Michigan State legend.

Illinois currently plays at the highest tempo in the Big Ten. Their 56.7% shooting percentage from two is second in the league. As is their 36.5% offensive rebound percentage. They lead the league in points per game and are extremely tough to beat when their offense is clicking. Alabama has been the only team to beat the Illini when they score at least 80 points.

Seeing as he only played eight minutes in the first game, Michigan State fans should probably re-introduce themselves to Kasparas Jakucionis. He’s Illinois’ best player. The 6-foot-6 true freshman is coming off back-to-back 24-point outings in wins against UCLA and Minnesota. After hitting a bit of a midseason slump, he seems to have found his footing.

But as the Spartans found out on Jan. 19, the Illini can win even without Jakucionis scoring in bunches. Kylan Boswell, Tomislav Ivisic, and Will Riley are all double-digit per game scorers. Throw in some volatile bench scoring from the likes of Morez Johnson, Dra Gibbs-Longhorn, and Ben Humrichous, and it’s easy to see how Illinois can light up the scoreboard.

The offensive philosophy for Brad Underwood is simple. By playing fast and cleaning up on the boards, Illinois believes they can get more possessions than their opponents. More possessions equals more shots. More shots equals more chances for made baskets.

The level of efficiency that Illinois is able to play with often determines the outcome of their games. Even with the top scoring offense in the league, Illinois is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten. They also take a ton of threes, leading to a lot of variability within their games.

Defensively, it’s a solid group that prioritizes defending without fouling. Illinois also hopes to complement its high volume of 3-point attempts by taking away their opponents’. Nobody in the Big Ten allows fewer three-point attempts per field goal attempt than the Illini. Opponents are also relying on 57 percent of their points against Illinois to come inside the arc, the most in the Big Ten.

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Michigan State basketball update

After winning 13 games in a row, Michigan State has lost three of its past four. The Spartans have watched their two-game lead in the Big Ten disappear, and now they start their most difficult five-game stretch of the year at the State Farm Center.

After it felt like Michigan State basketball saved its title chances with a ferocious second-half comeback against Oregon, the Spartans laid an egg at home against Indiana. Mike Woodson’s zone flummoxed Michigan State’s offense, and the Spartans were abused inside by Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau.

During this four-game funk, Michigan State’s offense has plummeted. After scoring nearly 80 points a game for most of the season, MSU is averaging 69.5 over that stretch. Yes, the shooting has been horrendous. But the bigger issue is turnovers. Opponents have been able to keep the Spartans out of transition, exposing some weaknesses within their half-court offense.

That shouldn’t be an issue on Saturday, as we’ve documented how much the Illini like to push the pace. Maybe an up-tempo track meet is what MSU needs to get back on track.

In the first game, both Coen Carr and Frankie Fidler played over 20 minutes for Michigan State. I’d expect that to happen again, as both players are MSU’s best counter to Illinois’ size. Both players were also key contributors offensively, combining for 22 points, five rebounds, and three assists.

It’s been well documented, but it’s worth repeating that Michigan State basketball is a dreadful shooting team. But oddly enough, this is a matchup where it could play in their favor. The Spartans only attempted 10 3-pointers in the first meeting. Illinois’ defensive strategy takes them away. So if the Illini are going to force the Spartans away from something they’re already bad at, it could be a net positive.

I’ll be curious to see if Brad Underwood does anything defensively to bait MSU into more jump shots. But at this point, 25 games into the season, it doesn’t feel like they can stray away from their identity too much.

But the rebounding numbers are the ones to watch in this game. Because neither team can shoot effectively, offensive rebounding has been a key component for both teams. Despite losing that battle 15-13 in the first game, Michigan State was able to win the game. I wouldn’t bet on that happening again. Whoever wins the battle on the boards is likely winning this game.

Prediction

In the rematch, Illinois is currently a 5.5-point favorite. KenPom projects this at four, so this is shaded towards the home side a bit. Given the way these teams are trending, it’s not at all surprising.

Even though Illinois is out of contention in the Big Ten race, this is a game they’ve had circled. The Illini felt like they got a bad whistle in East Lansing, and now is the time for revenge. A late start time on Saturday night will do the Spartans no favors as the visiting team.

It’s lazy analysis to say that this comes down to Illinois’ 3-point shooting, but that doesn’t make it untrue. The Illini are going to take a ton. When they are hitting them, they are the best team in the league. When they aren’t, they’re vulnerable.

On paper, Michigan State basketball has the defense to make it difficult in that regard. They are also one of the few opponents that can match Illinois on the glass. The faster pace in this game should also play to Michigan State’s offensive strengths.

But I can’t imagine betting on Michigan State in this spot with any confidence. I’ve also had no feel for the Spartans lately, so maybe it’s time to start fading this analysis.

Kasparas Jakucionis barely played in the first matchup. MSU got 39 points from Coen Carr, Frankie Fidler, and Tre Holloman. They won that game by two points. And that was in East Lansing.

Now, the Spartans have to walk into a hornet’s nest and play the complete game that they haven’t played in weeks. No thanks.

I will say, if you like Michigan State basketball in this game, just get them to win the game outright. The Spartans match up well, and Illinois has been all over the place this season. I’m just not brave enough to do it.

Prediction: Illinois 84, Michigan State 73