Michigan State basketball: This team’s shooting splits make no sense

Jaden Akins got a good look. A made 3-pointer would have given Michigan State basketball the lead in the closing seconds. But the ball bounced off the front rim, and Michigan State would leave Pauley Pavilion as losers last week. Akins’ miss was the team’s 17th of the night. If any of those 17 misses finds a way to stay in the basket, the outcome of the game is different. But perhaps we should have been asking, why was UCLA content to allow such a clean look?

The answer is sobering. Right now, if you’re playing Michigan State, you want them to shoot threes. Because right now, schools like Maryland Eastern Shore, West Georgia, and New Jersey Institute of Technology are better three-point shooting teams than the Michigan State Spartans.

Tuesday’s performance against Indiana dropped MSU’s season percentage to 28.8%. They are generating fewer than 21 percent of their total points from three, which is good for 357th in America. In case you were curious, there are (only) 364 teams in Division I.

In an era where the game has built an increasing amount of offense around 3-point shooting, Michigan State is fighting with one hand behind its back.

I believe Tom Izzo when he says this team has the personnel to be a good shooting team. All you have to do is look at historical percentages and compare them to this season. Look at how far MSU’s best shooters have fallen off from previous seasons.

Everyone is worse than they were a year ago. And as evidenced by 2023 figures, these weren’t statistical outlier years in 2024 from any of these players. Simply put, four of Michigan State’s best players are having the worst shooting season of their career. And even though high school stats aren’t available, I can promise you these guys weren’t getting an offer from Tom Izzo with these shooting numbers.

What’s not included in these figures are the types of shots being taken. Various factors such as opponent, teammates, and shot quality all play a factor. But when you consider this 2025 Michigan State basketball team has a higher offensive efficiency rating than the teams from 2023 and 2024, these shooting struggles just don’t add up.

NBA teams often use free throw shooting as a predictive metric for how draft prospects and young players will develop as three-point shooters. While the correlation isn’t perfect, it makes logical sense.

Looking at the free throw percentages for those same four players, the three-point percentages become even more unbelievable.

As a team, Michigan State is an 81 percent free throw shooting team. That’s good for fourth in America. In fact, there are only six programs shooting at least 80 percent from the line this season.

If you go back to 2015, there have only been 27 teams (0.7%) that have shot 80 percent from the line for a season. Of those 27 teams, nobody shot worse from 3-point range than this year’s Michigan State basketball team. The 2025 Richmond Spiders are the only other team under 30 percent. In fact, the average shooting percentage from three for those 27 teams was over 36 percent.

The Spartans may be the rare case where free throw shooting and three-point shooting have no correlation. But the numbers above indicate that the two are connected.

Does it mean anything? Maybe. Maybe not. Sometimes, stats are just numbers. Sports aren’t played on spreadsheets, and that unpredictability makes it fun.

But as we try to understand what Michigan State’s ceiling is in 2025, it’s hard to ignore the shooting. This group is a top 30 offense from an efficiency standpoint. They also have a number of other favorable metrics with this abysmal showing from three. If – and it’s a big if – they find a way to just be average, it becomes a completely different team.