Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction at No. 13 Wisconsin

Michigan State basketball will be in Madison tonight for a big battle with No. 13 Wisconsin. Here’s everything you need to know.

Michigan State basketball will look to get its weekend off to the right start as they search for their second consecutive road victory Friday night at Wisconsin. The Spartans will also be looking to avenge their loss to the Badgers on Dec. 5. Wisconsin comes into the matchup atop the Big Ten standings. MSU is hoping to keep its own conference title dreams alive with a win.

Here’s a preview of the Badgers and a prediction of the outcome.

Scouting Wisconsin

There may not be a more surprising team in America than Wisconsin. After missing the NCAA tournament last season, Greg Gard’s squad has rebounded into a surefire tournament team in 2024. The Badgers are currently ranked 11th in KenPom and 13th in the AP poll. Even though Wisconsin’s victory in East Lansing came during MSU’s worst stretch of the season, it was hard not to be impressed with the way the Badgers played in that matchup.

Wisconsin’s calling card is their offensive efficiency. More specifically, they can shoot the basketball. Wisconsin is top 70 nationally in 3-point shooting, two-point shooting, and free throw shooting. Their frontcourt duo of Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl are converting over 57 percent of their attempts in the paint. Shooting guard Max Klesmit has been lethal from outside at 43 percent for the season.

St. John’s transfer A.J. Storr has been a revelation. At 6-foot-7, he does a little bit of everything. He’s a capable outside shooter that’s not afraid to get to the rim. He’s given Greg Gard a rare type of wing athlete that they haven’t had in recent years. The attention he draws has made life much easier for Crowl and Wahl in the post.

Wisconsin combines its elite shooting with a grinding pace, ranking 327th nationally. They are comfortable working late in the shot clock, averaging over 19 seconds per offensive possession. Their patience usually results in good looks, and they’ve been converting. While their defensive metrics are average, their ability to limit offensive rebounds puts a lot of pressure on opponents to match them basket for basket. The Badgers allow an offensive rebound on fewer than 23 percent of their misses.

In the first matchup, rebounding was the key. Wisconsin out-rebounded Michigan State 36-22 and allowed MSU to grab just five on the offensive end. A.J. Storr and Steven Crowl going 8-10 from three didn’t hurt either.

Michigan State basketball update

What’s important for Michigan State is that they finally won a road game at Maryland last Sunday. It doesn’t matter that it was one of the ugliest games you’ll see all season. A win is a win. They’ve had this entire week off to prepare for another shot at the Badgers. Outside of a trip to Mackey Arena in early March, this is Michigan State’s last opportunity for a signature win on the road.

The key for Michigan State is going to be their front court. Wisconsin brings two of the better big men in the conference into this game with Crowl and Wahl. Anyone who has watched Michigan State this season knows that is their weakness. In the first matchup, Carson Cooper played 29 minutes to Mady Sissoko’s 13. While Cooper’s length is desirable on defense and on the glass, MSU needs more out of Sissoko. He grabbed just one rebound in 13 minutes in the first matchup. MSU has no shot if that happens again.

The x-factor for MSU could be Jaxon Kohler. The sophomore has played very sparingly since his return against Northwestern earlier this month. They could really use him on Friday. While I don’t expect him to play 15+ minutes, this may be his most extensive playing time to date because of the matchup. If he can rebound, Izzo may have no choice but to leave him in the game.

As usual, MSU should have the advantage at guard. Chucky Hepburn is having a dreadful shooting season, and Tyson Walker isn’t exactly the guy you want to see if you’re looking to turn that around. As mentioned, Max Klesmit has been on fire lately. Michigan State basketball knows that. I suspect Jaden Akins will draw that assignment.

Despite their size, Wisconsin isn’t great at defending the rim. Their big men are tall but limited athletically. A.J. Hoggard should be able to get into the lane and make things happen. MSU isn’t going to get a lot of offensive rebounds in this game, so they need to be patient and wait for the right shot.

Prediction

Wisconsin opened this game as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 137.5. That line feels awfully short considering Wisconsin won the first matchup and will be at home on Friday night.

This is not a good spot for Michigan State. It’s a great one. The Spartans have had all week to rest and prepare for this game. Wisconsin escaped with a two-point victory on Tuesday at Minnesota. Most will assume that the first place Badgers will hold serve at home. This line indicates otherwise.

For as complimentary as I’ve been of the job Greg Gard has done, the Badgers won’t continue to run this hot. In Big Ten play, Wisconsin is shooting 42 percent from three, 55 percent from two, and 82 percent from the free throw line. That’s unsustainable.

Wisconsin has been elite from the three-point line while not being a high-volume shooting team. Max Klesmit leads the team with 76 attempts on the season. For reference, Jaden Akins has taken 91 and Tyson Walker has taken 95.

Steven Crowl is 13-25 on the season. John Blackwell is 17-34. Come on. That’s not going to continue.

The Badgers will still have the advantage in the post. They’ll have the home crowd behind them. But they also haven’t played a top 40 team since losing by 25 against Arizona on Dec. 9. Wisconsin’s Big Ten record is inflated due to their schedule. Their shooting prowess is due for some negative regression. And this feels like a spot where we get a focused, aggressive effort out of Tom Izzo’s bunch.

Prediction: Michigan State 73, Wisconsin 69