Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction for Maryland rematch

Michigan State basketball hosts Maryland on Saturday night and here’s everything you need to know about the rematch.

Less than two weeks after the 61-59 Michigan State basketball victory over Maryland in College Park, the two programs will play again in East Lansing on Saturday. It’s a pivotal game for both teams as they look for NCAA Tournament resume-boosting wins.

Here’s an update on both teams with a final score prediction.

Scouting Maryland

While two weeks may not feel like a long time ago, it can be an eternity in the world of college basketball. Maryland has only played two games since their loss to Michigan State basketball, but it feels like a much-improved team. The Terps defeated Iowa on the road before pounding Nebraska at home last weekend. Maryland held Iowa’s high-powered offense to 67 points before shutting the water off on Nebraska, holding them to 51.

Kevin Willard’s squad now owns the sixth-ranked defense in America according to KenPom. Within conference play, there’s been nobody better. Maryland continues to stifle teams at the rim, holding opponents to 43 percent from inside the three-point line. They are also forcing a turnover on nearly 20 percent of defensive possessions while coming up with a blocked shot on nearly 14 percent.

Maryland’s roster is long, athletic, and experienced. Julian Reese has been a big problem for opponents with his defense at the rim. Jordan Geronimo, Jamie Kaiser, and Jahari Long are all lengthy defenders on the wing who block shots, deflect passes, and generate turnovers.

Offensively, it’s been better for Maryland. While it’s still a unit that is prone to long droughts, their shooting has improved. Maryland is 326th in America in three-point shooting percentage at 29.7%. But in the past three games, the Terps have been converting at over 40 percent. Jahmir Young has found his stroke while Donta Scott continues the best shooting season of his career.

Going into the first matchup, I thought Donta Scott was the swing player for Maryland. After looking at it a little closer, it’s Julian Reese. Maryland’s shooting has gotten better. But given the roster construction, it will never be a strength. Their ability to establish Reese in the post and have him pull down offensive rebounds is vital to their offense. As their only true center, Kevin Willard will also need him to stay out of foul trouble.

Michigan State knows Jahmir Young is going to show up and be tough to handle. Donta Scott is going to be a pest with his ability to do a little bit of everything. But the emphasis has to be on slowing down Reese. Keep him off the glass, make him work in the post, and don’t be afraid to double-team him. Maryland doesn’t have the shooters to make MSU pay for it.

Michigan State basketball update

The Spartans feel good after getting Tom Izzo his 700th career victory against Michigan on Tuesday. A strong second half easily put Michigan away. Jaden Akins enjoyed his best game of the season by knocking down seven 3-pointers.

In the first matchup, MSU survived thanks to an outstanding first half. The Spartans scored just 17 points in the second half and were able to hold on for the win. In that game, Michigan State benefited from 18 Maryland turnovers. The Spartans were also crushed on the glass, 37-22.

It was clear to anyone who watched that Maryland’s straight man-to-man defense stifled Michigan State. The Spartans scored just six points in the first 10 minutes and consistently struggled to get good looks. Maryland’s length and athleticism gave Michigan State’s backcourt problems. Even with solid contributions from Malik Hall and Tre Holloman, the Spartans needed every one of those Maryland turnovers to pull out the win.

On Saturday, the key for Michigan State is to get out in transition. Maryland’s turnovers in the first matchup weren’t any sort of anomaly. The Terps turn the ball over more than anyone else in the Big Ten. That should allow for some opportunities for Michigan State to get out and run. When things really bogged down in the second half, it was because the Spartans were trapped in the half-court. Their offensive deficiencies become much more pronounced in that setting because of their lack of scoring from the low post.

I’m also curious to see if Tuesday was the start of something special for Akins. He’s had an underwhelming season shooting the ball. Even after the 7-for-10 performance against Michigan, he’s still shooting under 40 percent from three on the season. He only had five points in the first game against Maryland. MSU will need more from him this time around.

Prediction

Michigan State currently sits as a 6.5-point favorite. It’s an indication of how much home court means in the Big Ten. The total sits at 130.5. It’s hard to see how this game plays out any differently than the first matchup. Neither team plays a particularly pretty brand of offense. Both teams rank in the top 20 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metrics.

This is a tricky spot for Michigan State. The Terps are a serious threat to win this game outright. Maryland’s defense is going to be the best unit on the floor, and their offense is slowly improving. Maryland’s strength on the offensive glass is a difficult matchup for this MSU team that struggles to get rebounds.

Jahmir Young is one of the best point guards in America. If he can hit some outside shots, take care of the basketball, and limit a hobbled Tyson Walker, Maryland is going to be in this game with a chance to win it.

But Young’s turnovers and streaky shooting have been problems this year. Maryland has also struggled to finish games. The Terps are 0-5 in one-possession games. At home, I’m guessing MSU will get some good offense from Malik Hall and Jaxon Kohler to take some pressure off the guards. Akins’ hot shooting continues, and the Spartans grind out another ugly game that stays annoyingly close throughout.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Maryland 63