Michigan State basketball: Projecting Big Ten Tournament seed

Michigan State basketball could earn that coveted double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament for a second straight year.

Michigan State basketball has six games remaining in the regular season, and there are two things on Spartan fans’ minds as we inch toward the end of the season. Will Michigan State make the NCAA Tournament and what seed will they earn?

This is always the biggest question this time of year, and our staff predicted just that recently. But how about giving the Big Ten Tournament some love? This may not be as exciting as the NCAA Tournament, but it’s still extremely important and really fun to watch/attend as well.

The rest of the Big Ten season was simulated 100,000 times to see the most likely seed that each Big Ten team could earn, so let’s dive right in and see where MSU ended up.

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Probabilities – February 16 Update: pic.twitter.com/w4v5Xd2WVm

— Matt Hackman (@mjhackman) February 16, 2024

Michigan State earns a 4-seed in the Big Ten tournament

Every team wants to earn a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament. A double bye, extra rest, and fewer games you need to win to win the tournament are just a few reasons why. And after 100,000 simulations, the 4-seed is the most likely outcome for Michigan State.

This simulation gives MSU a 29 percent chance to end with the fourth seed in the Big Ten tourney. The 3-seed is also likely as well at 19 percent and the 5-seed sits at 24 percent. The Spartans are currently No. 5 in the Big Ten standings, so this is not surprising to see these as MSU’s most likely seeds.

Theoretically, it is possible for MSU to finish as high as the 1-seed and as low as the 13th seed. The Spartans ended at No. 13 in only one simulation and ended as the No. 1 seed in 80 simulations. I can guarantee neither will happen, but it’s fun/scary to imagine.

Earning a single or double bye

The last piece of information provided from this simulation was the percent chance at earning the byes. As mentioned, the top four seeds earn a double bye and seeds 5-10 earn a single bye. After rounding, the Spartans have a 100 percent chance to earn at least a single bye and a 55 percent chance to earn the coveted double bye.

Probabilities of achieving first and second round byes: pic.twitter.com/hB3iZ7jGkv

— Matt Hackman (@mjhackman) February 16, 2024

If the Spartans want to earn a top-four seed, they need to continue stringing wins together. They’re currently sitting at three straight wins after beating Michigan on Saturday, improving to 17-9 overall and 9-6 in league play.