Michigan State basketball: Scouting report, prediction vs. Maryland

Michigan State basketball returns to action Wednesday after a joyous couple of days following their road win against Michigan. Hopefully, the players spent less time celebrating than the fans, because this could be their toughest test of the season.

Maryland is playing as well as anyone in the country, and they’ve been off since last Thursday, awaiting their shot at the Spartans.

Here’s an update on both teams, followed by a prediction.

Scouting Maryland

After losing both games on their West Coast trip to start the new year, Maryland has won 10 of 12 games, with their two losses coming by a combined five points. Their resurgence has featured road wins at Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska. They’ve also beaten UCLA and Wisconsin at home. At 11-5 in league play, Maryland also knows that a 4-0 finish to the season likely gives them a share of the Big Ten title.

The Terrapins are a balanced group, sporting a top 25 offensive and defensive efficiency rating. In conference play, it’s been all about their defense. Maryland is a top five defensive team in several categories, including effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and block percentage. It’s a roster that has tremendous length, allowing their defenders to be versatile with their switches.

On offense, Maryland likes to play through their big men, Derik Queen and Julian Reese. Many of you are probably familiar with the senior Reese by now. In his fourth year at Maryland, he’s a traditional back to the basket big man with no outside shooting capability. He’s always struggled with fouls in his career, but the addition of Queen has made life easier for him in that regard.

Speaking of Queen, that’s the name you should know. The true freshman has muscled his way into the first-team all-conference conversation. At 6-foot-10, he’s a load to handle in the post, averaging 16 points and nine rebounds per game. The scary thing for opponents is that he seems to be getting better as the season rolls along. He’s had a double-double in four straight games and is coming off a 17-rebound effort against USC.

But it’s not as simple as slowing down Queen and Reese. Maryland’s role players compliment their big men extremely well. Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel are all sharpshooters that can burn you. As a team, Maryland is shooting over 38 percent from three in Big Ten play.

Maryland’s big (and only) flaw is their depth. Kevin Willard may have the best starting five in the Big Ten. But after that, the drop off is significant. The Terps rank 303rd in America in bench minutes. Maryland’s ideal game script sees their starters all playing at least 30 minutes, limiting the likes of Deshawn Harris-Smith and Jordan Geronimo to minimal roles.

Michigan State basketball update

For the moment, the Spartans are on top of the world. They control their path to winning an outright Big Ten title after defeating Michigan in Ann Arbor on Friday. That win capped off an extremely impressive three game run that also featured wins against Illinois and Purdue.

The Spartans are all the way up to 11th on KenPom, which is their highest ranking of the season. They come in with the Big Ten’s most efficient defense, grading out at the top of the league in a few categories. Their 24-point effort in the second half against Michigan was some of their finest work of the year.

Offensively, the Spartans have found themselves after suffering a bit of a lull earlier this month. That resurgence has coincided with Jase Richardson finding his way into the starting lineup. The freshman is on a tear right now, averaging over 17 points per game in his last five outings. He’s emerged as MSU’s go-to scorer and primary initiator on most possessions.

Also playing his best basketball of the season is Tre Holloman. The hero from Friday’s win buried three 3-pointers in a row that completely swung the game in MSU’s favor. And while Holloman’s scoring has been the story of late, he’s quietly putting up some impressive assist totals as well. He currently ranks fifth in the Big Ten in assist rate.

This Michigan State basketball team feels different than ones of recent memory. The main reason for that is their toughness in the rebounding department. MSU is a top 20 rebounding team on the offensive and defensive glass. Jaxon Kohler has been a beast on the boards all season. But the guy that has made the most of his minutes lately is Carson Cooper. The 6-foot-11 junior grabbed eight rebounds against Michigan in 19 minutes. He’s had at least two offensive rebounds in seven of his past eight games.

While Michigan State finds itself in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten, it has plenty of work left to do. The Spartans finish with three ranked teams on the schedule, along with a tricky road game at Iowa. They continue to get no help from the rest of the league (cough, Nebraska), so there’s almost no room for error. A loss at Maryland opens the door for a few other teams (including the Terps) to grab a share of the crown at season’s end.

Prediction

Maryland is a 3.5-point favorite at the Xfinity Center in College Park. That line may be surprising to the casual fan that sees Michigan State basketball surging. But these teams are separated by just four spots on KenPom, and Maryland has the benefit of playing at home.

When the Terps are rolling, it’s a substantial home court advantage. I was stunned to see their arena seats 18,000 people, which is the 14th largest in Division I. The Spartans are going to feel the effects of that, because the arena will be full on Wednesday night.

From a matchup standpoint, I think Michigan State will be OK. Queen and Reese are going to be a problem inside but Tom Izzo may be content to concede points there if it means keeping the Maryland guards in check. This strategy worked against Purdue and Michigan.

The Spartans have a huge advantage with their depth in this game. That’s major if this game is officiated tightly.

But I think this game comes down to rebounding. Maryland is a good defensive rebounding team, which is essential to beat MSU. But this is a different animal. Right now, the gap between the Spartans and the rest of the Big Ten in offensive rebounding is huge. Michigan State basketball can hang around and potentially steal this game on the offensive glass.

What worries me here is the spot. This feels like a schedule loss for the Spartans. After winning three consecutive games, where second half comebacks were needed, it’s asking a lot for MSU to rise to the occasion again. Maryland has had six days to prepare. They haven’t had a big-time opponent visit their arena in a month. They’ll be ready.

This is the 3-point shooting regression game for MSU. Big Ten opponents are shooting less than 28 percent against the Spartans. That’s not sustainable, because MSU is allowing opponents to shoot them. Maryland has the shooters to put a dent in those numbers, especially at home. This Michigan State team is too tough to get blown out. They’ll fight and threaten to win this game. But a hot shooting stretch in the second half from the Maryland guards is the difference.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Maryland 74