Michigan State football: 3 keys and a prediction vs. Indiana

Michigan State football welcomes national darling Indiana to Spartan Stadium this Saturday. Typically, these teams are playing for the frequently forgotten, and criminally slept-on, Old Brass Spittoon. This year’s game for Indiana has a lot more on the line. At 8-0, the Hoosiers will be looking to keep their Big Ten and College Football Playoff dreams alive.

Michigan State will hope to play spoiler as Jonathan Smith looks for his first win over a ranked team.

Here’s what to watch for ahead of Saturday’s matchup.

1. Michigan State’s mindset

A lot of football related things have to go right for Michigan State to win on Saturday. But none of the happenings between the lines will matter if the Spartans don’t strap in for 60 minutes. That focus is in question after a demoralizing defeat last week against Michigan. The Spartans dominated the box score, punched their rival in the face, and had a chance to tie the game late. They didn’t and watched Michigan raise the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the third consecutive year.

That game means more than the other 11 on the schedule. A lot of emotions were exhausted last Saturday night. The shenanigans after the final whistle didn’t do anything to help anyone move on. The challenge for Smith this week is to turn the page.

Losing to Michigan sucks. But this is MSU’s last opportunity for a win that would resonate with the national audience. Defeating an undefeated, top-15 team would be an outstanding achievement in year one.

But that won’t happen if Michigan State football still has its heads in Ann Arbor. Indiana is led by – and I mean this respectfully – a football psychopath. Curt Cignetti has injected energy and belief into this Indiana program that I never thought was possible.

Don’t underrate that. It matters. Because from a talent standpoint, the Hoosiers aren’t going to bring anything that MSU hasn’t seen. The Spartans have played Oregon, Ohio State, and now Michigan. They’ve seen the best. And for what Indiana may lack in talent compared to those teams, they’ll make up for in “want to”. If Michigan State can handle its own baggage, and get ready to play, they can think about the football piece. But matching Indiana’s intensity is a non-negotiable on Saturday.

2. Where is Indiana’s weakness?

I’ll take questions I never thought I’d ask for $600, Alex. Seriously, where is the weakness with this Indiana team? Pick a stat—any stat. Indiana likely ranks in the top 30 nationally.

The Hoosiers are scoring 46.5 points per game. They have a top-25 passing and rushing offense on a yards-per-game basis. They are converting 54 percent of their third downs, only behind Army and Miami (FL). They have a plus-eight turnover margin, and lead the country with 47 red zone trips, scoring on all but three occasions.

And, no, they are not just an offensive juggernaut. Indiana is holding their opponents to 14 points per game. They have a top-five run defense. They rank inside the top 25 in sacks and tackles for loss. And oh, by the way, they’ve only allowed 18 red zone possessions in eight games.

This team is profiling like a national title contender. And as much as I’d love to put 2024 Indiana in the conversation with 2019 LSU, I don’t believe this is sustainable. This is the product of an extremely favorable schedule. There are weaknesses on this team. And it’s up to Smith to find them.

There have been some small cracks in the foundation. Washington played them evenly despite a costly pick-six. Maryland and Northwestern were able to move the ball a bit. But nobody has been able to play a complete game. Most of that is Indiana’s doing. But it’s no coincidence that there are zero complete teams on the ledger so far.

Michigan State football is far from a complete team itself. But they have that type of game in them. We saw it against Iowa. For MSU, this is less about keying in on Indiana’s weaknesses, and more about focusing on themselves. The numbers and the tape aren’t going to show a lot of areas to expose the Hoosiers. They’ve been that good. But if the Spartans can play to their strengths and limit mistakes, Indiana will show some vulnerability.

3. Kurtis Rourke

If you watched any #MACtion over the past few seasons, you’re likely not surprised by the success Kurtis Rourke has had this year. He was a baller at Ohio. And now, he’s ballin’ out at Indiana. In seven games, Rourke has completed almost 75 percent of his passes while tossing 15 touchdowns.

A thumb injury forced him to miss last week’s game against Washington. After having two screws put into his right hand last week, he is on track to play against Michigan State football.

That’s good news for Indiana. But it doesn’t come without concerns. Just because Rourke can play does not mean he’s 100 percent. His accuracy has been his best attribute this season. When you have an injury to the throwing hand, that becomes your top concern. What kind of zip and touch will Rourke’s passes have? How will it hold up throughout a four-hour game?

Keep in mind, the high temperature in East Lansing on Saturday is 56 degrees. In the second half, the sun will be gone. We could see temperatures dip into the 30s. Anyone can tell you the football gets harder to grip in the cold. Will that become a factor?

Backup Tayven Jackson was able to do enough to guide Indiana to a win last week against Washington. But he’s not the same type of passer as Rourke. Indiana had the benefit of playing from ahead that entire game. If Cignetti has to turn to him in this game, that’s a major advantage for Michigan State.

Rourke’s status in this game is tremendously important. Keep an eye on how he’s throwing the ball early. MSU doesn’t need him to be hobbled to win this game. But if he’s a little bit off, that could be enough to slow down this Indiana offense.

Prediction

Indiana is an eight-point favorite. The total has ticked up to 52.5. It’s worth noting that Indiana has been a cash cow against the spread. Since failing to cover in their opening win against FIU, the Hoosiers have been a perfect 7-0 against the number.

To me, this line feels inflated. The sports books have been struggling to adjust to Indiana’s resurgence, and this feels like an overcorrection. Call me crazy, but I don’t think you should be giving more than a touchdown on the road with a quarterback who has an injured throwing hand.

I’m a believer in Indiana. I think they belong in the playoff discussion. But it’s not going to look as easy as they’ve made it look all season. Look around at college football. Every team has struggled at some point this season. And oftentimes, it’s when you least expect it. This is the spot for Indiana.

I was impressed to see Michigan State’s offensive line play carry over from the Iowa game. I’m a believer in their run defense. And if they can hold up there, I think Rourke’s injury becomes a factor at some point.

Spartan Stadium can be the difference here. Indiana will be playing in just their third road game this year. The other two came at Northwestern’s soccer stadium and a half-empty Rose Bowl at UCLA. That matters, especially if Michigan State football can jump ahead early.

For what it’s worth, because of the uncertainty with Michigan State’s resolve, I don’t envision a close game where the Spartans lose. They’re either going to win or lose by multiple scores.

I’m banking on Smith and the old calling card from Mark Dantonio. “Don’t let Michigan beat you twice”.

Final score: Michigan State 27, Indiana 23