Michigan State football may not have the highest expectations in 2023, but will the Spartans surprise some people?
The 2023 Michigan State football season is almost here so why not celebrate with some bold predictions?
Expectations remain modest for Michigan State football in 2023. That leaves ample opportunity for this team to surprise. If they do, what might that look like?
If the Spartans are feisty this fall, I have a feeling at least one of these bold predictions will come to fruition.
1. Simeon Barrow will earn first-team All-Big Ten
As of now, Simeon Barrow projects to be one of Michigan State’s best players in 2023. He’s been a solid contributor on this defense for two seasons now. As a fourth-year junior, Barrow will be hoping for a big year to set up a chance to play in the NFL. He’ll be playing alongside the deepest and most talented defensive line during his time at Michigan State.
Athlon Sports recognized Barrow as a third-team preseason honoree this season. So, while it’s not too far of a stretch for Barrow to climb up to the first team, it will still be difficult.
The biggest challenge for Barrow is his position.
Good defensive tackle play isn’t always quantifiable with stats. He may lose out on recognition because of that. However, the numbers so far are really solid. He’s amassed 13 tackles for loss in his two seasons to go along with seven sacks. He certainly has the attention of coaches and media members within the conference as he was named to the All-Big Ten honorable mention team in 2022. With the additions from the transfer portal and continued development along the defensive line, Barrow should be free to see more one-on-one opportunities. If that’s the case, we should see him in the backfield quite a bit this fall.
Ohio State and Michigan have produced NFL talent at the position for years now. But the Big Ten features other excellent defensive fronts (Illinois, Iowa, Penn State) that will make this honor particularly prestigious. Keep in mind that Michigan State’s defense comes in with very low expectations this year. Improvement into a steady unit will turn a lot of heads. If that happens, it’s going to start with Simeon Barrow up front.
2. Michigan State will have a 1,000-yard rusher
Kenneth Walker III easily eclipsed this mark in 2021. Prior to that, you have to go all the way back to 2014 when Jeremy Langford did it. Given that fact, this may seem like an impossible task for this year’s team. But it’s important to note that Elijah Collins rushed for 988 yards in 2019. L.J. Scott tallied 994 yards in 2016. Neither of those teams were as good as the 2021 or 2014 teams. So, this is certainly possible.
The running back room has talent, but it’s not clear at this point how the carries will shake out. Jalen Berger returns after a promising season and figures to be a reliable option between the tackles. UConn transfer Nathan Carter has generated some buzz in camp so far and figures to be at worst a 1B-type option for the Spartan offense.
For this prediction, I’m not sure it matters. I think both players are capable of having a big season.
To me, this says more about Michigan State’s offensive line. The Spartans return four starters from last year. The rest of the roster is filled with redshirt freshmen and sophomores that have spent time in the program to get better. Chris Kapilovic has a very strong reputation as an offensive line coach. But even the best coaches still need time to develop players. I think this is the year where we see progress.
The returning starters and overall depth within the program feel deeper than ever under Mel Tucker. That, combined with a young quarterback and receivers, and I get the sense that the Spartans are going to lean on the running game as much as possible.
The “go-to guy” within the backfield will play out on the field over the first few weeks. Whoever that ends up being should have an outside shot to get to 1,000 yards. As shown above, that doesn’t necessarily translate into a good or bad season for the team. But with where the strengths are on this offense, it feels like an attainable goal for either or both running backs.
3. Michigan State will beat a “Big Four” opponent
Ohio State. Michigan. Penn State. Washington. Those are the “big four” on the schedule for Michigan State football in 2023. All four teams begin the season ranked in the top 10. All four teams won at least 11 games last season. Somehow, some way, I think Michigan State gets one win against those four teams.
The Spartans host Washington and Michigan in East Lansing. They’ll (likely) have a nice crowd advantage in Ford Field for the Black Friday game against Penn State. Ohio State has dominated Michigan State under Mel Tucker. It’s hard to see MSU walking out of Columbus with a win. But if you believe the Buckeyes have started to slip, and they are in fact the third-best team in the conference, then who knows?
Against Washington, MSU should benefit from a big crowd and the element of surprise. The Huskies have a similar team to what they did last year. MSU does not. Early in the year, that could play to their advantage.
The Michigan game is the biggest game on the schedule for the Spartans. They always elevate their play in that rivalry – especially at home. Michigan State will be plenty motivated after what happened after the game last season.
The movement of the Penn State game to Ford Field has received (mostly) negative feedback. To me, it’s hard to see a scenario where the pressure isn’t on Penn State to win that game. There is a world where they need to win that game to win the Big Ten East division. There is also a world where they would be hoping to avoid another loss in a frustrating season that began with sky-high expectations. Either way, the Ford Field wrinkle should create a bit of an awakening for MSU and their fans. Combine that with the fact that it is the last game of the season, and so much is going to change between now and Thanksgiving.
History tells us though that one of those four teams will stumble. According to Brett McMurphy, in 20 of the past 21 seasons, at least one team ranked in the preseason top 10 has finished the season unranked. Last year, Texas A&M, Baylor, and Oklahoma all fell wildly short of expectations. MSU has to hope that one of those teams is on their schedule in 2023.
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