Michigan State football: Should we hammer the over on 4.5 wins?

Vegas is not so high on Michigan State football heading into the 2024 season, setting the win total at 4.5.

Contrary to what the mass media believes, Michigan State football was both a winner and loser in the transfer portal.

Major college football sites called the Spartans huge losers during April’s spring window and apparently so has Vegas.

2024 Big Ten win totals via @ActionNetworkHQ app

Ohio State 10½
Oregon 10½
Michigan 9½
Penn State 9½
Iowa 7½
Nebraska 7½
USC 7½
Washington 7½
Maryland 7
Rutgers 6½
Wisconsin 6½
Illinois 5½
Indiana 5½
Northwestern 5½
UCLA 5½
Minnesota 5
Michigan State 4½
Purdue 4½

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) May 14, 2024

Amid the flurry of transfers both in and out of the program, Michigan State’s win total held steady at 5.5. Essentially your bet was whether the team would make a bowl or not. Now that the portal has been closed for a couple weeks, Vegas recalibrated its numbers and dropped the Spartans’ win total to 4.5.

I haven’t fact checked this but I believe that is the lowest preseason total for the team in the last several years.

Although going through a coaching change, Michigan State’s 2024 schedule is manageable compared to some other teams out there. Yes, the gauntlet of Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, and at Michigan will be a huge challenge for the team but the end of the year lightens up right when the team should be hitting their theoretical stride. Ending with Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers could have this team eyeing bowl eligibility.

The losses of Derrick Harmon, Simeon Barrow, and Jaden Mangham are certainly significant. Those are three above-average starters on a defense that needs work.

Vegas seems to forget the Spartans added the No. 1 portal quarterback (Aidan Chiles), top pass-catching tight end (Jack Velling), and a member of last year’s Joe Moore winning offensive line (Tanner Miller). These three additions alone are at major positions of need. Not to mention all the other depth pieces the staff has added via the portal.

At the end of the day, you’re trying to pick the three wins outside of FAU and Prairie View A&M. At Boston College and Maryland at home are both certainly winnable games. It would not be out of the question for MSU to be heading into OSU week 4-0 or 3-1.

The over of 4.5 wins feels almost too good to be true. I’m cautiously optimistic.