3 reasons Michigan State Hockey will make Frozen Four and 3 biggest concerns

Michigan State hockey has the talent to make the Frozen Four and here’s why the Spartans will do just that and three more concerns.

The Michigan State hockey team is officially off to Maryland Heights, Mo., to begin its quest for a national title. The Spartans landed the last of the No. 1 seeds in the regional finals. Unfortunately, that reward came with a tough draw if the Spartans plan to get to Minneapolis in a couple of weeks.

The Spartans begin their regionals run on Friday against the Western Michigan Broncos. Should they beat Western, they will face the winner of the North Dakota and Michigan match on Sunday. The winner of that game would then move on to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis next weekend. They would play the winner of the Boston College’s regional which features not only the No. 1 team in the country (Boston College) but also Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, and Michigan Tech.

With that draw ahead of it, MSU certainly will have its work cut out for it. When you get to this stage of the NCAA Tournament, there are no easy outs. This year’s tournament will feature a who’s who of blue blood programs, future NHL stars, and overall great hockey. Michigan State will certainly need to bring its A-game every night if it wants to accomplish the goals ahead of it.

With that being said, there’s also a lot going right for the Spartans. Should they advance through this region, a few key reasons may be the reason. Let’s look at the reasons Michigan State hockey could be setting up for a special run.

Oh, and a few reasons that could hold the Spartans back.

3 reasons MSU can make the Frozen Four 

• Trey Augustine

Let’s start with the main reason teams can go on runs in hockey: Goaltending. It’s the same in the NHL playoffs as well. More often than not, a team can ride a hot goaltender to a deep playoff run. Trey Augustine can do just that for the Spartans. He has been one of the most consistent goalies in college hockey this season. If the Spartans are going to make a deep run, he’s going to have to continue to play at a high level.

We’ve seen Augustine do this in big moments and he is no stranger to the big stage. While he did not have his best game last weekend against Michigan for the Big Ten Championship, he was fantastic in overtime and propelled the Spartans to the win.

Also earlier this season, we saw Trey play on a completely elite level for Team USA at the 2024 World Junior Championships in Sweden. Starting four games in the tournament for Team USA, Augustine went 4-0 leading all goalies with a 1.75 goals against average and a .936 save percentage. Also while battling the flu during most of the medal round.

It’s safe to say, that if MSU gets this version of Augustine, it’s in great shape to make a run.

• Consistent scoring

If there is one thing the Spartans do well as a team, it’s that they get consistent scoring from all levels.

The Spartans finished seventh in the country in scoring. They averaged just short of four goals a game this year. This is due mostly to a deep group of forwards. Joey Larson leads the way with 15 goals but as a team, Michigan State hockey scored the eighth most goals of any team in the country.

Consistent scoring from both the stars and the secondary players will be key for MSU to stay competitive.

Defensively, MSU has struggled at times so it will need to try to run with some big-time offenses to stay competitive. Someone like MSU’s third-line center Red Savage who can notch double-digit goals on the season is helpful for the team that lacks the overall sure-fire offensive superstars like other teams have (IE Macklin Celebrini or Cutter Gauthier).

For the Spartans to have a long run, everyone will have to be firing on all cylinders in the goal-scoring department.

• Power play advantage

Something the Spartans will absolutely have to take advantage of in the tournament is their opportunity with the man advantage. Michigan State finished this season with the fourth-best power play unit among the teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament. They have to consistently take advantage when presented with these chances, as it will be the best way to keep pace with some of these high-powered offenses.

Special teams will be critical for the Spartans on both sides, but I’ll get more into the penalty-kill aspect of it in a few. Focusing on this would help the Spartans gain an edge overall.

3 things that could keep MSU from the Frozen Four

• Penalty minutes/kill

Let’s face it. This isn’t a hot take. Staying out of the penalty box is key in big moments. For the Spartans, it will be especially crucial. They finished 25th in the NCAA in penalty kill percentage. That’s not bad per se, but it is not great either. What’s more troubling is that the Spartans are the second-most penalized team in this year’s NCAA Tournament field. They average roughly 13 penalty minutes a game. That statistic is a little inflated due to a ton of penalty minutes in a game against Michigan earlier this year. But still, the point remains that the Spartans will need to stay out of the box. There have been far too many penalties this year.

Of the potential teams that MSU may play, there are some heavy hitters in terms of power play rankings. Western Michigan ranks 27th in the NCAA in power play. If they move on they would play either the No. 1 ranking Power Play in Michigan or #9 in North Dakota.

Limiting the number of times that teams can get on the power play will be a big step in the right direction for MSU.

• Team defense

This is a bit of a good and bad. While the Spartans’ defense as a whole has been average, their best player this season has been defenseman Artyom Levshunov. He has carried a heavy load defensively this season and is excelling, but he cannot do it alone. For an example, see Detroit Red Wings and Moritz Seider.

The rest of the defense has been suspect at times. The Spartans ranked 32nd in goals allowed in the country. They give up an average of three goals per game. To succeed in the postseason, they will have to tighten up defensively as a team. The previous point of being on the penalty kill a lot certainly can help this. If the boys can stay out of the box, it would limit the time shorthanded.

As Coach O’Ryan said in the Mighty Ducks 3, “Defense means discipline.”

Hopefully staying more disciplined regarding taking penalties and in their defensive assignments will allow the Spartans to play a better brand of defensive hockey.

• Face-offs (!!)

If Adam Nightingale decided to hire me as an assistant coach or analyst, one thing I would always say is it’s important to focus on is puck possession. Simply put, the other team can’t score if they don’t have the puck. One of the best ways to start improving on that is by winning the face-off. This is something the Spartans do not excel at.

In fact, Michigan State hockey ranks 45th in the nation in face-off win percentage out of 60 Division 1 teams. That mark is good for last among teams in the tournament. It’s not a deal breaker but if this team could improve that number even a little bit, time of possession gets increased drastically. That would help improve the other areas mentioned above.

The Spartans finished with a 48.7% face-off win percentage. If they make it to the Frozen Four, I’d be willing to bet this number improved over the next few games to get them there.

Well, there you have it folks. This weekend is shaping up to be a big one for the Michigan State hockey team. Make sure to tune in to the game Friday at 5 p.m. ET on ESPNU. ESPN+ will also be streaming it for those subscribed there.