BASKETBALL

Michigan State basketball: Preview, prediction at Northwestern

A lot is on the line in this one.

Published

2 years ago

January 7, 2024

Joey Shaver

Northwestern plays host to Michigan State basketball on Sunday night with an improved spot in the Big Ten standings on the line.

Michigan State basketball looks to make it six in a row Sunday night on the north side of Chicago against Northwestern. Here’s what to watch for and a prediction.

Scouting Northwestern

The Wildcats come into the matchup fresh off their worst performance of the season. After losing Terrence Shannon Jr. to suspension, Illinois thirty pieced the Wildcats on Tuesday in Champaign. It’s been that kind of season for Northwestern. Chris Collins’ group has impressive wins this season against Purdue and Dayton. They also have a repulsive loss at home against Chicago State to go with the drubbing from the Fighting Illini.

Let’s put it this way. This year’s Northwestern basketball is not aesthetically pleasing. They move excruciatingly slow, ranking 350th out of 362 teams in adjusted tempo. Northwestern wants to play in the half court, rely on their defense, and out-execute their opponents. Northwestern owns some of the longest average possession lengths on offense and defense. They are comfortable playing late into the shot clock and want to make you uncomfortable in doing the same.

After finding some success with this play style last season, Collins has tried to replicate it again this season. Despite their efforts to be a defensive grinder of a team, it’s still an average defense by most metrics. Opponents are shooting well (particularly from three), grabbing offensive rebounds, and getting to the free throw line against the Wildcats. You won’t get much in transition against this group, but if you’re patient, you can score.

Offensively, it’s been even tougher for Northwestern. The only things they do particularly well are limit turnovers and hit threes. Their lack of offensive skill in the front court explains their below average effective field goal numbers in the paint. They don’t want to play in transition, so they don’t get offensive rebounds. They also don’t get to the free throw line.

Northwestern is led by fifth-year senior guard Boo Buie and Junior wing Brooks Barnhizer. Buie is a capable shooter, but he’s most dangerous as a facilitator. Ty Berry and Ryan Langborg are the guys that Buie will look to find for open threes. Both players are shooting above 40 percent this year. Barnhizer is their best rebounder and disruptor on the defensive end. Senior Matthew Nicholson will see the majority of minutes at center, but he’s a limited player offensively. He’s used primarily as a rim protector and matchup counter piece for opponents with size.

Michigan State update

The Spartans are rolling. After their sluggish start, MSU has won five in a row. All five wins have come by double digits. They’ve found their shooting touch from the outside, hitting 44 percent from three over the past five games. A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins have found some offense and given support to Tyson Walker.

Walker’s spectacular play is almost expected at this point. He’s been tremendous all season, but he’s taken it to another level over the past five games. During the win streak, Walker is averaging 20 points per game while shooting 50 percent from three. He’s also maintained a 21-to-4 assist to turnover ratio across 145 minutes. Oh, by the way, he’s come up with 15 steals while going 17-for-19 from the free throw line. Yeah, he’s pretty good.

But as impressive as Walker has been, Michigan State is at their best when they are sharing the basketball. The Spartans rank sixth in the country in assists per field goals made. So, while Walker is capable of having big games on his own, it’s usually a bad sign for Michigan State if he’s putting up 30. MSU’s ball movement and scoring distribution has a strong correlation to their offensive success.

Prediction

The early line for this game has Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite with a low total of 134.5. That low total is indicative of Northwestern’s pace and Michigan State’s defense. The Spartans now own a top-10 unit in defensive efficiency per KenPom.

For as well as Michigan State has been playing, Sunday presents a new set of challenges. Northwestern’s style is completely different from what MSU has been dealing with for the past month. The Spartans haven’t scored fewer than 79 points during their winning streak. This game is going to be played in the 60’s. Michigan State is going to have to execute in the half court and value possessions.

MSU’s offensive efficiency isn’t sustainable, and there is likely a dud coming soon. But I’m not sure if it will happen on Sunday. Like Penn State, Northwestern’s strength is at guard. There just aren’t many teams that are going to have an advantage over the likes of Walker, Hoggard, and Akins. Teams with athletic or scoring big men are Michigan State’s kryptonite. That’s not Northwestern.

The Wildcats will be motivated at home after getting embarrassed against Illinois. But I do suspect many Chicagoland Spartans (like me) to be in attendance. MSU has what it takes to stop Boo Buie from creating. When he is contained, this Northwestern offense can get bogged down easily. Look for MSU to lean into the half court grind with their defense. Michigan State’s rebounding and three-point defense are the difference.

Final: Michigan State 68, Northwestern 64