Michigan State football: 3 bold predictions vs. Ohio State in Week 5

Michigan State football will host Ohio State on Saturday night in a Big Ten showdown under the lights. Let’s get bold.

It’s been almost an entire decade since Michigan State football last beat Ohio State which is a far cry from the prime Mark Dantonio days when he would give the Buckeyes a whale of a battle every year.

Heck, even the 2016 Spartans that finished 3-9 brought Ohio State to the brink in East Lansing before losing 17-16 after Dantonio called for a 2-point conversion try and the win with seconds left. Unfortunately, the Spartans failed the conversion and lost by one, but that just went to show that even the worst Dantonio teams were tough on Ohio State.

Under Mel Tucker, there were zero close games with the Buckeyes. There were the seconds of joy after a Charles Brantley pick-six in 2022 that gave Michigan State a quick lead, but that was pretty much all the fun the Spartans have had against the Buckeyes in the past decade. Since 2016, it’s been blowout loss after blowout loss.

But Dantonio is returning to East Lansing permanently on Saturday night, however, as he’s being inducted into the Spartans’ Ring of Honor as his name will be part of Spartan Stadium forever. Will that Dantonio presence bring some magic back to the Spartan sidelines?

Let’s get bold.

Note: I’ve gotten at least 2/3 bold predictions right in three straight weeks. Let’s make it four.

1. Jack Velling breaks the 100-yard mark

With the uncertainty in the passing game lately following injuries to Jaron Glover and Nick Marsh, Jack Velling has had to step up. And over the past two games, he looks more like the tight end that we expected when the season began. He has eight catches for 119 yards over the past two games which more than makes up for his four catches for 40 yards in the first two weeks.

Velling has seen his numbers rise every week and that will continue against Ohio State.

While the Buckeyes have one of the best passing defenses in the country, the Spartans aren’t going to win this one by just pounding the rock. They’re going to have to air it out. The Buckeye defense is elite, so that means we’ll have to see some check-downs to the reliable Velling. I think he’s going to escape a few tackles and pick up a couple of big-gainers on his way to his first 100-yard game as a Spartan. I’ll say seven catches for 102 yards.

2. MSU defense holds Will Howard under 200 yards

Through three games, Will Howard hasn’t accounted for less than 228 passing yards in a single outing. His low was 228 against Akron in the opener and he’s had at least 275 passing yards in each of the past two games. Having Jeremiah Smith on your side will help those numbers.

But against a resurgent Michigan State defense under Joe Rossi, I think the Spartans will hold Howard in check.

The Kansas State transfer will complete over 50 percent of his passes, but he’ll have just 180 yards and two touchdowns. It’ll be his lowest passing output of the season, but will that lead to a Michigan State football upset?

3. Michigan State (finally) covers the spread

If you were hoping I would predict a Spartan upset, you’re sadly mistaken. I do think Michigan State could make things interesting on Saturday night, but I don’t see an upset happening unless something crazy happens or the Buckeyes just can’t stop turning the ball over.

I do, however, see this being the closest game in the series since the Dantonio era and potentially the first Ohio State vs. Michigan State game to be decided by fewer than 20 points since 2016.

The spread for this one is 24 points but I think Michigan State makes it interesting and keeps things close for a half before running out of gas late in the third quarter and falling by 20. I’m going with a final of 37-17 Ohio State.