Michigan State football: Gambling analysis and a prediction vs. Wisconsin

It’s settings like this that will keep me coming back to college football for a long, long time. Michigan State. Wisconsin. An old school Big Ten matchup on the first Saturday in October. And if that isn’t enough nostalgia for you, how about sunny skies and a high of 66 degrees in Madison? Near perfection.

But what is far from perfect are these two football teams. Wisconsin, much closer to it than Michigan State though. The Badgers are a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5 points.

When Wisconsin Has the Ball

As you probably gathered from looking at the total, this is a game featuring two limited offenses. We’ll start with Wisconsin. The Badgers haven’t been effective running the ball this year. Against FBS competition, Wisconsin is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. There’s no shame in getting stuffed against Notre Dame (2.16 yards per carry). But the Badgers followed that up with uninspiring totals against Eastern Michigan and Penn State (117 and 120 yards respectively).

To make matters worse, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the availability of the Wisconsin running backs. The team’s leading rusher, Abu Sama, is listed as questionable after carrying the ball just five times against Penn State. Third string running back Bryan Jackson is also listed as questionable, leaving junior Darrien Dupree as Wisconsin’s only experienced option.

Colton Joseph actually leads the team in attempts. So, depending on the availability of Jackson and Sama, we could see Joseph even more involved in the running game than he’s already been.

This isn’t an elite Michigan State defense by any means, but they have held up well against the run. Even after absorbing 40+ attempts from Notre Dame and Nebraska, the Spartans are allowing just 3.82 yards per carry on the season. We’ll see though, how reliant this rush defense is on having linebacker Jordan Hall. He left the game against Nebraska and is listed as doubtful for Saturday. The Spartans also have three different linebackers listed as questionable, throwing even more uncertainty into their defense.

Against the pass, it’s looked worse than it’s been for Michigan State. The Spartans are allowing almost 8.4 yards per attempt. But they haven’t allowed more than 234 yards in a single game. Low passing volume from their opponents is part of the reason for that. But the bigger concern for the Spartans on Saturday is, again, health. Michigan State already ruled out three cornerbacks. Starter Tre Bell is also listed as questionable.

Big plays have hurt this secondary. The Spartans have given up 13 pass plays of more than 20 yards. And even though MSU has held opponents to a 62% completion rate, the passes they’ve allowed to be completed have been gut punches.

Fortunately for Michigan State, that’s not really Colton Joseph’s game. He hit a big play in the closing seconds to beat Penn State. But without that pass, the Nittany Lions held him to 163 yards on 37 attempts. Joseph was also intercepted three times in that game and now has five total in just four games.

Whoever is available at cornerback for MSU is going to have to find a way to guard Tyrell Henry. The former Spartan has nearly a third of Wisconsin’s yards and receptions this season. Maybe MSU can take something from the Penn State game. Henry is coming off a season low in receptions (2) and yards (14) against the Nittany Lions.

When Michigan State Has the Ball

Very quietly, Michigan State has descended into one of the worst statistical offenses in college football. The Spartans currently rank 122^nd in total offense. They have a -4 turnover margin. They have just 11 plays of 20 yards or more. And now they’ll be without their best offensive player (RB Cam Edwards) for the remainder of the season.

As promising as QB Alessio Milivojevic looked last year and in the opener against Toledo, these past three games haven’t looked as crisp. His three turnovers against Nebraska felt like a new low. It also feels like MSU’s inability to protect him is starting to show. The Spartans have allowed 15 sacks in four games, resulting in a loss of 117 yards.

Sacks are like miniature turnovers. They are instant drive killers, especially for an offense that already lacks explosiveness. Wisconsin doesn’t have a great pass rush (five sacks this season) and they don’t generate a ton of negative plays. So, maybe this is a chance for this MSU offense to get back on track.

But this is still a Luke Fickell defense. The Badgers are a top 50 team against the run and the pass. They don’t give up explosive plays. They’re good on third downs. And they have to be salivating at this matchup against the Spartans.

Against Notre Dame and Nebraska, Michigan State has run the ball 59 times for 83 yards. You don’t need a calculator to tell you that isn’t going to cut it. Jaziun Patterson steps into the RB1 role, with sophomore Marvis Parrish filling in behind him. The Spartans have used backup QB Cam Fancher in designed run situations this season. Perhaps we see more of that given their struggles.

Prediction

It’s amazing how much things can change in a week. After the Notre Dame game, this felt like a winnable game for MSU. The Spartans played the Irish tougher than Wisconsin did and they did so in South Bend. Now, given MSU’s injuries and poor performance against Nebraska, it feels like they could go winless until Thanksgiving.

Given all of that, this line feels low to me. I understand the idea of laying more than a possession with this Wisconsin offense is scary. But how much is Michigan State going to score? Wisconsin could score 14 points and still cover this spread.

And yet, amazingly, this line has actually moved back towards Michigan State. Why? Well, let’s dig into it a little further.

This is a good spot to sell Wisconsin after their last second, miracle victory against Penn State. The early kickoff as a big favorite after the biggest win in the Luke Fickell era could translate into a flat start for the Badgers. And this does feel like the type of “nobody believes in us” situation that Pat Fitzgerald thrived in at Northwestern.

And, we have two common opponents! Both teams beat Eastern Michigan with relative ease. And both lost to Notre Dame. But the Spartans gave Notre Dame their toughest two and a half quarters of the season.

Keep in mind, the season is still young. Wisconsin’s win against Penn State looks impressive based on name recognition alone. But in reality, Penn State hadn’t played anybody noteworthy prior to that game. It’s also worth mentioning that Wisconsin fell behind 17-0 in that game as well. The same could be said about Nebraska. We could look at those two results with a completely different view in a month.

I don’t know what to expect with Michigan State because I don’t have a great feel yet for what they’ll be under Pat Fitzgerald. But given the erratic play at quarterback for Wisconsin, I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on them to win by 10+ either.

Instead, I’m going to look at the first half total. Let’s go under 22.5. I don’t see how Michigan State moves the ball, or scores with any consistency in this game. And I have a feeling that Luke Fickell will see this game as an opportunity to work on the running game. That helps our wager in two areas. First, it’s a bad strategy against MSU’s strong defensive interior. Second, it runs the clock.

The turnover prone quarterback play from both sides scares me away from the full game total. Instead, let’s bet on a sleepy first half from two offensively challenged teams. As always, bet responsibly and within your means.