Bowling is the bar in year one of the Jonathan Smith era

The Jonathan Smith era is coming with some updated expectations and the bar right away should be making a bowl.

Michigan State is going through a rebuild. Over 20 players have entered the portal and the Spartans haven’t seen a sixth win in the last two seasons. Regardless, the expectation for year one of Jonathan Smith in East Lansing should include a 13th game. 

An easier schedule

The Spartans faced one of the most grueling schedules in college football this year. Michigan State played games against teams currently ranked Nos. 1, 2, 7, 10, and 17 in the College Football Playoff rankings. 

In the new Big Ten, an “easy” schedule will rarely present itself again. Regardless, next year’s schedule is not as daunting. There are only three games that most would instantly consider a loss for Michigan State next year: Ohio State, at Oregon, and at Michigan. Every other game is very winnable. If someone really wants to stretch it, Michigan might not be the most daunting task. Given the rivalry factor, the NCAA investigation, questions around Jim Harbaugh’s future, and tons of production set to leave or decide on the NFL draft, it is not out of the question that Michigan takes a real step back next season. 

The non-conference schedule is also a lot easier. The most difficult game is at Boston College, who’s 6-6 this season. Compared to Washington in the past two years, that is a welcome sight. The other two games are Florida Atlantic and Louisiana, which should both be wins. 

A game at Maryland in Week 2 will be the one where fans will see if the team could be bowl-caliber. They will have to replace four-year starter Taulia Tagovailoa who went 2-1 against the Spartans. 

The grind of the schedule is from Weeks 4 to 9. It begins with the Boston College game, then Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, and at Michigan. Going just 2-3 in that stretch and sitting at even 4-4 or potentially 5-3 in that stretch would be a massive success. 

That is because the last four games are a cakewalk in comparison. Following Michigan, MSU gets Indiana, at Illinois, and then Purdue and Rutgers to finish off the season. At least three of those games should be wins. The lone road victory in Michigan State’s win column this year was Indiana, Illinois went 5-7, Purdue went 4-8, and Rutgers is probably a win for MSU this year if it’s played in East Lansing. 

The improved coaching staff

In addition, Michigan State will upgrade pretty much everywhere on the coaching staff. 

Moving on from Jay Johnson, the new offensive coordinator will be Brian Lindgren. He followed Jonathan Smith from Oregon State to East Lansing. The Beavers ranked 32nd in the country in total offense with 426.9 yards per game and 27th in scoring offense at 33.8 points per game. Michigan State was 125th in total offense for 289.3 yards per game and second-to-last in scoring offense at 15.9 points per game. Even Iowa had a better offense. 

On the defensive side of the ball, the Spartans swiped Joe Rossi, formerly the defensive coordinator at Minnesota. He has had three defenses ranked top 10 nationally in total defense in the past five seasons. Minnesota’s numbers were down this year, but a large amount of injuries are a big reason for that. 

Rossi takes over for Scottie Hazelton. Michigan State was ranked 87th in the country in scoring defense with 28.3 points per game allowed and 77th in total defense at 388.8 yards per game allowed. Those numbers are simply not good enough, and Rossi is one of the best guys for improving them.

Special teams were another frustration, especially during the middle of the season. Special teams gaffes were a huge reason for MSU’s losses to Iowa and Rutgers. The Hawkeyes took the lead with less than four minutes left on a Cooper DeJean punt return for a touchdown. With a 24-6 lead against Rutgers in the fourth quarter, punter Michael O’Shaughnessy helped the Scarlet Knights get back into the game by fumbling a snap, which was recovered for a Rutgers touchdown. Later on, Michigan State inexplicably lined up like they expected an onside kick with eight minutes left, and Rutgers pooch-kicked it over them and recovered. 

Jonathan Smith has not hired a special teams coordinator yet, but one can imagine improvement will be had in that phase of the game. Jonathan Kim and Ryan Eckley will be back, so much of the improvement lies in coverage and returns during punts and kickoffs. 

The portal

Rebuilds can also be done in one or two seasons now with the transfer portal. Oregon State is ranked No. 19 in the country, and the current situation should mean masses of Beavers end up in East Lansing. Naturally, many will want to follow Smith. In addition, Oregon State is basically getting relegated to the Mountain West. Many of their top players would much rather follow their coach and play Michigan than stick around and play Nevada and get destroyed by an Oregon team that now has even more resources than them. 

Aidan Chiles could commit to Michigan State at any moment and instantly be the starting quarterback. Tight end Jack Velling could be right behind him. Rebuilds have never been easier, and the situation for Smith’s former team makes that even easier for the Spartans. 

Michigan State will probably not be in any meaningful conversation for the 12-team playoff or the Big Ten title. That is a conversation for another year or two down the road. Right now, a bowl game is a realistic, attainable goal for Michigan State and it is what fans should expect as well.