Michigan State basketball: The road to a share of the Big Ten title

While still technically mathematically possible, can Michigan State basketball realistically win the Big Ten?

Can Michigan State basketball really still win the Big Ten?

Before anyone says anything, I know this may seem like a ridiculous question to ask. But hear me out because there is a greater than zero chance that this happens. Here are the current standings at the top of the Big Ten as of Feb. 18.

• Purdue: 12-3
• Illinois: 10-4 (1.5 games behind)
• MSU: 9-6 (3 games behind)
• Northwestern: 9-6 (3 games behind)
• Wisconsin: 9-6 (3 games behind)
• Nebraska: 8-7 (4 games behind)

Before we dive into it, let me preface by saying this would be a shared Big Ten championship. There is no shot MSU wins the Big Ten outright, but at this point who even cares? Each championship counts the same whether it’s shared or not.

Let’s dive into it and see how realistic this is.

Michigan State must win out

For Michigan State to win the Big Ten, it obviously will need to win the rest of its games. The Spartans have five games left on their schedule, and it isn’t crazy to suggest they could win them all.

• Iowa
• Ohio State
• at Purdue
• Northwestern
• at Indiana

Michigan State will be the favorite in each of these games other than Purdue. And the way MSU has been playing recently, I would be shocked to lose to any of those four teams.

But the obvious roadblock is that road game against Purdue. The best Michigan State basketball teams of all time struggle to win at Purdue, so why should we expect to win there? I don’t expect to win, but I won’t say it’s impossible either. The Spartans are trending up and Purdue has struggled a little recently, so I won’t put it past Tom Izzo to go in there and get the win.

Purdue needs to struggle

Speaking of Purdue, Michigan State would need the Boilermakers to struggle to end their season. Purdue currently has a three-game lead over MSU with five games to play, so that in itself is difficult to overcome. But let’s look at the remaining schedule for Purdue.

• Rutgers
• at Michigan
• Michigan State
• at Illinois
• Wisconsin

For Michigan State to win the Big Ten, I already said it needs to win out. So for fun, let’s chalk that game up as a win for MSU. That means Purdue needs to lose two more games to tie the Spartans. I don’t see a world where Purdue loses to Rutgers or Michigan, but they could slip up in their final two games.

Illinois can beat anyone at home, and I honestly might favor the Illini in that game some. Wisconsin also is capable of beating Purdue as well. The Badgers, however, have lost five of their last six games, but if they get back to their earlier season form they could definitely pull off this upset.

Finally, Purdue has been struggling recently. The Boilermakers narrowly beat Minnesota at home a few days ago and just lost to Ohio State on Sunday. In case you didn’t know, the Buckeyes are in second-to-last place in the conference. So if Ohio State can beat Purdue, many other teams can as well.

The rest of the Big Ten

To be honest, I’m not that nervous about the rest of the Big Ten teams in contention. If MSU does win their last five games, I think they’ll pass them all in the standings.

Michigan State is already tied with Northwestern and Wisconsin in the Big Ten standings. The Spartans do play Northwestern at home once more, and I think they’ll get their revenge and win that game. Also as I already mentioned, Wisconsin is struggling big time, so I’d be shocked if they went 5-0 to finish their season.

That leaves us with Illinois, who is 10-4 and 1.5 games ahead of MSU. It’s not a guarantee that Illinois loses two games to finish the season, especially if MSU needs them to beat Purdue to help us catch the Boilermakers. Illinois does travel to Wisconsin, so that’s a potential loss for the Illini. But other than that and the Purdue game, Illinois will be heavy favorites in the rest of their games.

It will be very difficult, if not almost impossible, for Michigan State to win the Big Ten. But as I feel like I’ve outlined above, it’s not impossible. Regardless of what happens, I think we all would be ecstatic heading into March if Michigan State finds a way to finish 5-0. Even if the Spartans lose at Purdue, I still think a 4-1 finish would be amazing.

Anything’s possible this time of year, it is called March Madness for a reason. Maybe the madness will begin early and MSU will make a late run at a Big Ten championship.